Asia’s coal sector has gone from thinking they are in terminal decline as the world shifts to a net-zero carbon future to seeing themselves as being a part of the energy mix for decades to come while raking in profits.
The bullish narrative was on full display at the industry’s biggest gathering, the Coaltrans Asia conference held this week on the Indonesian resort island of Bali. [emphasis, links added]
What has changed for the coal industry is that they no longer believe that renewable energies can be deployed fast enough, cheaply enough, and at a sufficient scale to push fossil fuels out of Asia’s energy mix.
“The reality is that coal demand will continue to increase,” Septian Hario Seto, Indonesia’s deputy of investment at its Coordinating Ministry for Maritime and Investment Affairs, told the conference.
This was a common view, with delegates expressing skepticism over the pathways to net-zero emissions advocated by Western bodies such as the International Energy Agency.
While thermal coal does see some threat from natural gas, the view of virtually every market participant, from miners to traders to utilities and government officials, was that coal remains the cheaper and more secure alternative.
There is also the realization that the energy transition means very different things in various regions and countries.
It could be argued that the lesson that most European countries took from the surge in fossil fuel prices and the concern over security in supply from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was that they would accelerate the move to renewable energies.
European nations may be able to afford to take such steps and commit billions of dollars to build wind, solar, and storage solutions at an accelerated pace.
The lesson in Asia seems to be the exact opposite, with the main concern being the cost of energy.
h/t NZW
Read rest at Reuters
The Coaltrans Asia Conference is a sharp contrast to the goals of COP28, with its goal of putting an end to the use of fossil fuels. It is unlikely that there will be an agreement to do away with fossil fuels and if there were it is certain that the goal won’t be achieved. The realities of the Asian need for coal, Germany’s need for coal, and the UK 180 won’t stop the idealists from trying.
The big difference between coal and natural gas for generating electricity is that coal can be stockpiled at the power plant while natural gas cannot and there must be sufficient natural gas in the pipeline for the plant. This is why natural gas used to be the primary fuel used for the surge electricity generation.