Although the coupled ocean-atmosphere processes associated with El Niño are well established, questions remain about what determines the onset, strength, and timing of individual events.
One proposal explored here is that geological seafloor activity may play an underappreciated role.
Under this hypothesis, changes in the trade winds would be part of the response rather than the initiating cause. The proposed trigger is heat and material released from seafloor geological features in the west-central Pacific, including hydrothermal vents, submarine volcanoes, and major faults.
How El Niños Form
- One proposed mechanism begins with a deep magma chamber beneath the proposed Origin Point becoming hotter and more pressurized, allowing magma and heated fluids to move upward through fractures toward the seafloor.
- The hypothesis further proposes that early heat input could destabilize nearby methane-clathrate-bearing sediments, with colder water temporarily offsetting some warming above the source area. However, evidence tying this specific process to ENSO onset would be needed to establish the mechanism.
- Under the proposal, continued geological heat would then warm overlying water, which ocean circulation could transport eastward while some of the heat reaches the surface.
- A further proposed step is that declining geological heat flow could contribute to subsequent cooling. Establishing a direct link to the onset of La Niña would require observational evidence.
For more details concerning the generation of an El Niño, refer to these previous Climate Change Dispatch articles here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.
Evidence for a Geological Origin
Several observations support the hypothesis. El Niño warming repeatedly develops across the equatorial Pacific, while undersea volcanic and hydrothermal systems can release helium, heat, and nutrients such as iron and phosphorus.
These observations show that geological processes can affect ocean chemistry and temperature, but they do not by themselves demonstrate that those processes initiate El Niño.
Forecasting the timing and strength of ENSO events also remains challenging. One possibility raised by this hypothesis is that an unmodeled geological contribution could account for some forecast error, although forecasting difficulty alone does not establish a geological trigger.
The proposed source region lies along the Pacific Ring of Fire. In May 2026, satellites detected an unexpected underwater volcanic eruption in the Central Bismarck Sea.
NASA described a geologically complex, poorly mapped seafloor containing faults, volcanic features, rifts, scarps, active subduction and spreading zones. The eruption confirms active undersea geology in the broader region; connecting that activity to basin-scale El Niño warming would require additional evidence.
The amount of heat associated with a major El Niño is enormous. For a geological-origin hypothesis to explain a substantial share of that warming, however, the proposed seabed heat source would need to be quantified and compared with the ocean heat content involved. That energy-budget calculation remains a key test of the proposal.
Generation of El Padre
A second large warm-water feature in the northern Pacific—termed “El Padre” here, rather than as an established scientific designation—may warrant examination for a possible geological contribution. The northwestern Pacific includes active geological systems such as Kikai and the Japan Trench.
Kikai remains an active volcanic system, and submarine volcanic and hydrothermal activity can release gases and heated fluids into surrounding waters. Whether heat from Kikai or other regional sources is sufficient to produce the observed northern Pacific warm anomaly (warm blob) has not been demonstrated.
Other proposed explanations include variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and longer-term climate change.
One proposal is that magma and heated fluids moving through faults along the western Pacific Ring of Fire during 2025-2026 contributed heat to the overlying ocean.
Similarities between the two warm-water patterns may justify investigating a common geological influence, but similarity alone does not establish a common cause. “La Madre,” like “El Padre,” is terminology used here rather than an established scientific classification.
The relatively sharp boundaries of some warm-water anomalies could be examined for evidence of localized heat sources and ocean-current transport. Such geometry suggests this hypothesis but is not diagnostic of a geological origin.
Pacific Ring of Fire
The development of the two warm-water patterns has coincided with substantial geological activity around the Pacific Ring of Fire. The Ring is a vast system of faults and volcanoes responsible for most of Earth’s earthquakes and many major eruptions.
The January 2022 Tonga underwater eruption also demonstrated that large ocean-floor events can occur with little warning. Coincidence in timing, however, does not establish that Ring of Fire activity caused the ocean warming.
Clusters of significant earthquakes during 2026 provide another reason to examine possible geological contributions. A causal case would require showing that the timing, location, and magnitude of associated heat emissions correspond to the observed ocean-temperature changes.
Why Seafloor Mapping Matters
Oceans cover about 71 percent of Earth, and much of the seafloor remains unmapped at high resolution. GEBCO/Seabed 2030 mapping reveals deep basins, mountain chains, trenches, faults, and volcanic features that illustrate the geological complexity hidden beneath the oceans.
Detailed maps of even relatively small Pacific areas reveal numerous geological features. That leaves ample room for undiscovered vents, faults, and volcanoes, but their existence alone does not establish that their combined heat output materially affects ENSO. Measuring that output is essential to testing the hypothesis.
Summary
This proposal argues that geological activity on the Pacific seafloor may contribute more to El Niño and northern Pacific warm-water anomalies than current explanations recognize.
Undersea geology unquestionably transfers heat, gases, and chemicals to the ocean, and much of the deep seafloor remains incompletely mapped and monitored.
Demonstrating that these processes generate, rather than merely accompany or locally influence, basin-scale temperature anomalies will require direct measurements and an energy budget that accounts for the observed warming.
Biography
James Edward Kamis is a retired Geologist with forty-two years of experience. He has a Bachelor of Science in Geology from Northern Illinois University and a Master of Science in Geology from Idaho State University. His work argues that geological forces can significantly influence climate-related events, a theory he details at Plate Climatology Theory and in his latest book, Geological Impacts on Climate.
