Natural changes in cloud albedo, absorbed shortwave forcing (ASW), and solar activity (TSI, total solar irradiance) are “the dominant factors driving climate change.” [some emphasis, links added]
Dai Ato, an independent researcher from Japan, has completed a comprehensive regression analysis (Ato, 2026) using key climate variables and published the results in the Science of Climate Change journal.
Using widely accepted global temperature, specific humidity, solar activity, and albedo (cloud) datasets, Ato has reaffirmed the now-common conclusion (Koutsoyiannis, 2024; Berry, 2023; Nikolov and Zeller, 2024; Grabyan, 2025; Soon et al., 2023; Ato, 2024) that absorbed shortwave radiation forcing (via cloud albedo changes) and variations in solar activity are driving modern global warming.
Human-made CO2, amplified by positive water vapor feedback, is not a primary driver of climate change.
Similar to the dependence of water vapor or specific humidity on temperature, multivariate analysis supports the conclusion that changes in CO2 are a consequence or a “byproduct” of global sea surface temperature (G-SST).
CO2 thus has almost no explanatory power as a causal factor in 21st-century climate change.
“CO2 is not needed as an explanatory factor. Therefore, these results demonstrate that CO2, a byproduct of preceding SST, has virtually no explanatory power for G-SST, even secondarily.”
“[W]ater vapor, the primary contributor to the greenhouse effect on Earth, has been a dependent variable of global SST at least since the year 2000.”
In contrast to CO2’s “negative explanatory factor” climate sensitivity, ASW [absorbed shortwave radiation] and TSI [total solar irradiance] have a “positive explanatory power” with far better sequencing and correlational alignment as causal agents in modern global warming trends, or climate change.
Comprehensive data analysis can thus be shown to undermine key tenets of the anthropogenic global warming theory.
“Furthermore, multivariate analysis confirmed that the combination of leading ASW and TSI most effectively predicts G-SST since 2000.” …
“The sequence of influence on Earth’s climate is as follows: solar activity and albedo determine Earth’s SST and air temperature, and SST then exclusively determines G-SpHm [global specific humidity/water vapor concentrations]. Compared to these two indicators (ASW and TSI), the influence of atmospheric CO2 was confirmed to be effectively negligible.” …
“These results indicate that from 2000 to the present, the dominant factors driving climate change have been solar activity and cloud variations by reducing albedo in the sky during the period. Consequently, the anthropogenic theory of global warming and the positive feedback theory are denied, according to the data of worldwide prominent climate research institutes. Furthermore, since human influence remains negligible even in the 21st century, the same holds true for the past.”
Read more at No Tricks Zone
if more solar energy and fewer clouds drove climate change there would be warming during the day and cooling at night … but in fact there is more warming at night than there is during the day
Yes indeed the increase of total solar irradiance drives the climate. Zharkova et al claimed the increase of solar radiation owing to solar inertial motion induced by gravitation of large planets. This leafs to reduction of clouds and albedo reported in this article. https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/75534.
Therefore, the global warming is real and caused by solar orbital (inertial) motion about the barycentre of the solar system caused by the gravitation of large planets https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barycenter_(astronomy)#/media/File%3AOrbit4.gif.
This solar inertial motion follows Hallstatt’s cycle of 2200 years, repeated many thousand or million times in Earth. In the current millennium 1600-2600 the sun moves closer to Earth in January-June of each year increasing total solar irradiance sent to Earth https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/75534.
The sun will keep moving closer fir the next 600 years or so and the temperature will increase further further 2.5-3.0C by 2600-2650.
The similar warming was observed during the Roman Empire – the Roman warmth period 100-400AD when the temperature all over Europe was more than 2.9C higher than the current one!
https://climatechangedispatch.com/roman-warm-period-3-6f-warmer-than-today-new-study/.
Here is the plot showing how the current temperature follows the increase of total solar irradiance (blue dots) induced by solar inertial motion. From our published paper https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation?paperid=138752.