From recent media reports (e.g. the WaPo’s Capital Weather Gang) you would think that the new RSS satellite dataset for the lower troposphere (LT) has resolved the discrepancy between climate models and observations.
But the new LT dataset (Version 4, compared to Version 3.3) didn’t really change in the tropics. This can be seen in the following plot of a variety of observational datasets and the average of 102 CMIP5 climate model simulations.
It’s pretty clear that the models are producing too much atmospheric warming compared to satellites, radiosondes (weather balloons), and multi-observational atmospheric reanalyses. (And remember, the observations have a record warm El Nino at the end of the time series, which the model average does not. Without that, the discrepancy would be even larger).
For those who claim, But humans live at the surface, not up in the atmosphere, do those same people ignore the warming of the deep oceans, too? Or maybe they will claim, But most people don’t live in the tropics — do those people worry about Arctic sea ice melting? (The Arctic Ocean covers 2.8% of the Earth, while the tropical results in the above plot are for 35.5% of the Earth).
The fact is that how much warming is occurring in the troposphere (and in the deep oceans) tells us something about whether the climate models can be trusted. If their feedbacks are reasonably correct (which will determine how much global warming we should see in the future), the models should tell a reasonably consistent story in the atmosphere, in the ocean, at the surface, in the tropics, and outside the tropics.
Remember, the climate models are the basis for energy policy changes, and so their quantitative projections are central to the case that we must do something about our greenhouse gas emissions.
Read more at Dr. Roy Spencer’s Blog
Its always been warming in the tropics it always has and it always will and the chief sources of Hot Air in the tropics is from DiCaprio,Gore and those Eco-wacko leaders of Greenpeace,EDF,NRDC,Center of Biological Diversity and the rest of the Global Warming chicken littles out there shout THE EARTH IS WARMING,THE EARTH IS WARMING Gore and DiCaprio are selling snakeoil to the public
Always Spurning Plover ridicules EVERYTHING he doesn’t understand and he doesn’t understand much of anything….he just hates and upchucks ugliness.
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This article is humorous if it wasn’t such a serious topic.
THERE are hundreds of models out there…and they CHOOSE to critique ONE which enforces their DENIER IDEOLOGIE ! !
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Although temperatures had been running a little lower than the central estimate of IPCC projections in recent years,
they were, and are, still within the projected ‘envelope,’ as shown in the figure above and discussed at length in the linked articles.
Moreover, I added, there was and is a long track record in the scientific literature of successful predictions by climate models.
It was collected and documented by Barton Paul Levenson (also linked in sidebar.)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/06/26/sea-level-rise-isnt-just-happening-its-getting-faster/?wpisrc=nl_most-draw5&wpmm=1
I quoted Barton as follows below,Multi National Global Climate Computer Models
SPOT-ON-ACCURATELY predicted:
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1.That the EARTH would warm
(stopping 7500 years of Cooling Temperatures)
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2. How fast the EARTH would warm
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3. How much the EARTH would warm
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4.That the troposphere would warm
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5. That the stratosphere would cool.
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6.That nighttime temperatures would increase MORE than daytime temperatures.
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7.That winter temperatures would increase more than summer temperatures.
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8.Polar amplification (greater temperature increase as you move toward the poles).
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9.That the Arctic would warm FASTER than the Antarctic.
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10.The magnitude (0.3 K) and duration (two years) of the cooling from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption.
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11.They made a retrodiction for Last Glacial Maximum sea surface temperatures which was inconsistent with the paleo evidence, and better paleo evidence showed the models were right.
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12.They predicted a trend significantly different and differently signed from UAH satellite temperatures, and then a bug was found in the satellite data.
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13.The amount of water vapor feedback due to ENSO.
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14.The response of southern ocean winds to the ozone hole.
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15.The expansion of the Hadley cells.
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16.The poleward movement of storm tracks.
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17.The rising of the tropopause and the effective radiating altitude.
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18.The clear sky super greenhouse effect from increased water vapor in the tropics.
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19.The near constancy of relative humidity on global average.
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20.That coastal upwelling of ocean water would increase….”
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21. 47% of Species have already been disturbed/driven out of their native habitat.
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Correct predictions !
Looks like a pretty good track record to me.
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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-HNjoaXkAM4EqU.jpg
http://www.realclimate.org/images//Marcott.png
http://www.remss.com/blog/recent-slowing-rise-global-temperatures
https://www.carbonbrief.org/major-correction-to-satellite-data-shows-140-faster-warming-since-1998
Sadly none of those is a credible source.
Chris Mooney? LOL… https://realclimatescience.com/2017/01/daily-climate-fraud-from-the-washington-post/
Sea level rise? ” Brian Craig, co-host of the Steve Kane Show, the longest running radio program in South Florida mentioned that just by watching “Where the Boys Are” you can see the beach is just as wide now as 54 years ago. Your humble correspondent decided to verify this assertion and found this title credits aerial view of Fort Lauderdale Beach. Yup! The current ocean level is just about where it was when George Hamilton and Yvette Mimieux were working on their tans at the beach back then.” https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/10/25/fort-lauderdale-sea-level-identical-to-55-years-ago/
NOAA? Wrote the book on adjusting data to match failed models. Compare the NOAA graph to their own “adjustments”. NOAA recently removed the graph from the public servers… Wonder why?http://jennifermarohasy.com//wp-content/uploads/2009/06/hammer-graph-3-us-temps.jpg
Subtract the fraudulent “adjustments” and you get this. http://jennifermarohasy.com//wp-content/uploads/2009/06/hammer-graph-5-us-temps.jpg
The only real world thing those “adjustments” match, is rising Co2.
https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Screen-Shot-2016-11-21-at-9.26.17-AM.png
https://realclimatescience.com/2016/11/noaa-adjustments-correlate-exactly-to-their-confirmation-bias/
Carl Mears? LOL… “I posted this in January. Roy Spencer predicted that Carl Mears (under pressure from the climate mafia) would corrupt his TLT data to bring it in line with the global warming scam.” https://realclimatescience.com/2017/06/another-correct-forecast-from-roy-spencer/
Carbon Brief? LOL… Name says it all. This is the kind of Propaganda they put out. Zero credibility. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/14/smear-job-by-the-carbon-brief/
Pause Buster Paper Busted… They took ship intake water temperature data, with a known bias towards warming, and “adjusted” upwards the much better satellite and ocean buoy data. Why? Because it moved the needle towards the warming they wanted.
Your “credible sources” are a who’s who of data manipulation Rakooni. Sad.
https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2015/06/04/noaancdcs-new-pause-buster-paper-a-laughable-attempt-to-create-warming-by-adjusting-past-data/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/02/the-big-list-of-failed-climate-predictions/
A verrryyy long list of failed Global Warming science “predictions”… http://www.c3headlines.com/bad-predictions-failed.html
https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/tag/predictions-that-failed/
Rakooi the windy BLAH,BLAH,BLAH,YAMMER,YAMMER,YAMMER,YAK,YAK,YAK