Satellite observations from CERES (Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System) indicate cloud cover has declined since 2000. [emphasis, links added]
Declining cloud cover has meant less shortwave radiation has been reflected to space, increasing the solar radiation absorbed by the Earth’s surface (ocean).
Earth’s Energy Imbalance (the net difference between incoming and outgoing energy) has been increasingly positive since 2000, rising from an average of +0.5 W/m² from 2000 to 2010 to +1 W/m² in the last decade.
This positive trend is the consequence of the +0.9 W/m² increasing trend in absorbed solar radiation (ASR) due to this observed decline in cloud cover.
Thus, the 2000-2022 increase in sea surface temperatures (SST) can be explained by increases in shortwave (SW) forcing, and not an enhanced greenhouse effect due to rising greenhouse gases.
The reason we can say greenhouse gases cannot explain modern warming is that the positive shortwave (SW) forcing driving SST increases has been partially offset – reduced – by a declining greenhouse effect or longwave (LW) forcing (-0.4 W/m²) over this period.
This is manifested as an increasing outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) trend (more energy lost to space) during the first 23 years of the 21st century.
The LW forcing trend is partially impacted by trace greenhouse gases like CO2 and CH4, as well as by water vapor.
“…part of the -OLR trend is associated with reduced emission resulting from increases in water vapor and WMGG [well-mixed greenhouse gases] above the cloud top…”
However, the predominant factor affecting OLR is the decadal-scale trend in cloud cover, referred to as the cloud radiative effect (CRE).
While declining cloud cover results in increasing absorbed solar radiation (see the red positive SW bar on the CRE chart), it simultaneously enhances, rather than reduces, the outgoing longwave trend (as shown in the blue negative LW bar on the CRE chart).
In other words, the greenhouse effect impact, manifested as the trend in OLR, has been heading in the opposite direction if anthropogenic CO2 emissions were indeed driving global warming.
CO2 emissions are not impactful enough to reverse the overall sign of longwave radiation.
According to Cess and Udelhofen (2003), a negative greenhouse effect influence – enhancing cooling – was also observed from 1985-1999.
Thus, extending the 2000-2022 trend another 15 years, the total greenhouse effect forcing may have been cooling the Earth for more than 35 years.
Models say an enhanced greenhouse effect due to increasing trends in well-mixed greenhouse gases explains the rise in SSTs in recent decades. Observations do not support these model results.
More BS from master BS artist Ken Richard, a CO2 Does Nothing Nutter. All evidence of greenhouse warming is ignored, such as.
Cooling of the stratosphere
Most warming at night (no sun)
Lack of Antarctica warming — a negative greenhuse effect over most of the continent
Other factors:
No increase if top of the atmosphere TSO since the 1970s
All Arctic warming in winters with little sunlight
Solar energy that reaches the ground has increased from less SO2 air pollution. The effect of changes of cloudiness is unknown because average annual measurements of exactly how much sunlight clouds are blocking do not exist.
There is some daytime warming caused by more solar energy reaching Earth’s surface but the larger amount of warming is at night with o sunlight.
Night time warming? UHI. The methods used to accumulate temperature data have not been consistent, deliberately.
Thanks to your bias and petulance, Dick Green, I’m making another generous contribution to CCD.
Tories pledge to scrap carbon taxes as industry faces soaring costs, with Sir Jim Ratcliffe backing plans to cut energy bills and boost competitiveness. […]
Those suckers who think CO2 if Pollutant are the very same ones who join the Eco-Freak groups like Friends of the Earth Greenpeace Sierra Club Etc.
More BS from master BS artist Ken Richard, a CO2 Does Nothing Nutter. All evidence of greenhouse warming is ignored, such as.
Cooling of the stratosphere
Most warming at night (no sun)
Lack of Antarctica warming — a negative greenhuse effect over most of the continent
Other factors:
No increase if top of the atmosphere TSO since the 1970s
All Arctic warming in winters with little sunlight
Solar energy that reaches the ground has increased from less SO2 air pollution. The effect of changes of cloudiness is unknown because average annual measurements of exactly how much sunlight clouds are blocking do not exist.
There is some daytime warming caused by more solar energy reaching Earth’s surface but the larger amount of warming is at night with o sunlight.
Night time warming? UHI. The methods used to accumulate temperature data have not been consistent, deliberately.
Thanks to your bias and petulance, Dick Green, I’m making another generous contribution to CCD.
Well said Sunnyhill! He is very biased and as you say petulant.
CO2 belongs on the bench, not on the field. .04% is a 98 pound weakling.