No, Hurricane Hilary Is NOT A Sign Of Climate Change

Hurricane Hilary update as of 8/17/2023…

Hurricane Hilary … is expected to turn toward the northwest on Friday and north-northwest on Saturday, taking it on a course roughly parallel to the coast of Baja California.

The center of the hurricane will approach Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula over the weekend. [emphasis, links added]

Hilary is predicted to peak as a Category 4 hurricane on Saturday, then rapidly weaken to a tropical storm by the time it arrives in Southern California on Monday.

It is not expected to be a hurricane on its final approach.

The storm will bring heavy rains to Baja, California, with rainfall amounts of three to six inches possible throughout the peninsula, and localized totals of 10 inches. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in mountainous areas.

The storm’s remnants are likely to bring flooding rain as well as strong winds to some parts of California, including the Los Angeles Basin.

Heavy rainfall is expected to impact the Southwestern U.S. starting Friday through early next week, peaking on Sunday and Monday.

The storm will also cause large swells along the coast in the next several days, which could pose a hazard for surfers and boaters.

Hurricane tracks in the eastern North Pacific…

Tropical cyclones in the eastern North Pacific typically follow a westward or west-northwestward direction due to the subtropical ridge’s influence, a dominant high-pressure system.

However, shifts in the subtropical ridge’s strength or position can make hurricanes veer northward.

Additionally, if elongated areas of low pressure, known as mid-latitude troughs, descend into the eastern Pacific, they can redirect a hurricane toward the north.

The presence of occasional pockets of warmer sea surface temperatures off the California coast might allow a tropical cyclone to maintain its intensity on a northward path.

Winds in the upper atmosphere can also influence cyclones to move from south to north.

Moreover, some hurricanes transform into post-tropical systems upon encountering cooler waters and different atmospheric conditions, making them more likely to follow a northern trajectory influenced by broader weather patterns.

While direct hits from full-strength hurricanes are rare in Southern California, the remnants can still produce significant rainfall and weather disruptions.

Past tropical cyclones impacting southern California…

Hurricanes that hit Southern California are rare due to the typically cold ocean waters off the California coast, which tend to weaken tropical systems.

However, there have been a few instances in recorded history where remnants of tropical cyclones, and in one instance the cyclone itself, have impacted the region.

Here’s a brief history of notable events:

1. 1939 Long Beach Tropical Storm: This is the only tropical storm that made direct landfall in California in the 20th century. The storm made landfall on September 25, 1939, near Long Beach. It resulted in 45 deaths and significant flooding.
   
2. 1976 Pacific Hurricane Kathleen: Kathleen transitioned into an extratropical storm before reaching California, but it brought heavy rainfall to the region. The storm was responsible for two deaths in California and caused significant flooding in the southern part of the state.
   
3. 1983 Tropical Storm Octave: While the core of this storm did not make landfall in California, its remnants led to significant flooding in Arizona and also impacted parts of Southern California.
4. 1997 Hurricane Linda: This was an extremely powerful Category 5 hurricane that, at one point, was projected to possibly impact Southern California. While it ultimately stayed offshore, the storm still generated large swells that affected the coast.
   
5. 2012 Hurricane Fabio: The remnants of Fabio led to increased moisture and scattered thunderstorms over parts of Southern California, though the core of the storm remained offshore.
6. 2015 Hurricane Dolores: This hurricane’s remnants brought rain to Southern California, with some areas receiving over one inch of rainfall.

While direct impacts from full-strength hurricanes are rare in Southern California, Hilary will likely weaken rapidly before reaching SoCal, the remnants of these tropical systems can still lead to heavy rainfall, flooding, and other associated hazards.

Although this is an uncommon event, just like in the 1939 Long Beach Tropical Storm, this has nothing to do with anthropogenic GHG emissions.

Read the full post at Irrational Fear