New Paper: Defying Models, There Has Been No Long-Term Linear Decline In Arctic Sea Ice

Uncoupled: CO2 And Sea Ice

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions have risen linearly since the mid-1940s.

According to climate models, anthropogenic CO2 emissions drive trends in polar sea ice. The sea ice extent in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres should therefore gradually decline (linearly) as human emissions rise.

However, neither the Arctic nor Antarctic sea ice trends appear to be cooperating with these modeled expectations.

In newly published papers, scientists have reported that Arctic sea ice extent grew during the decades from the 1940s to the 1980s before declining after the 1980s.  The Arctic sea ice trend has thus undergone an oscillation rather than a linear recession, contradicting the models.

Furthermore, the instrumental record indicates that Arctic temperatures have stopped rising since about 2005.

On the other side of the planet, the sea ice surrounding Antarctica has been growing since the 1970s, or for nearly 40 years now.  This sea ice expansion coincides with an overall Southern Ocean cooling trend of about -0.3°C per decade since 1979.

Again, the climate models that stipulate changes in CO2 concentrations are what drive polar sea ice trends have been contradicted by observational evidence.  As Connolly et al. (2017) conclude:

[C]urrent climate models are still quite poor at modeling past sea ice trends.”

Climate models may also be quite poor at modeling current sea ice trends.

Read papers at No Tricks Zone

Comments (3)

  • Avatar

    Spurwing Plover


    And remember that Al Bore said the Ice Caps would be gone by now those nit-wits for Greenpeace doing their usial idiotic stunts and the nutcase sailing around on the Ice Berg as well as this Fragile Earth and delicate balance of nature poppycock You cant trust the En-Liar-Mentalists

  • Avatar

    David Lewis


    Of course there has been a decline in the ice. All you have to do is use the first graph and make your base line year 1970. That is what the climate alarmists have done.

  • Avatar

    Jim Bob Areno


    Hey Brothas,

    I’m brainwashed as a tree hugging, rational regulating liberal. I often vote left despite my best interests because I’m self-identified as being on their team.
    Being a scientist (not climate) I found this site because of the big holes left out on climate science. Virtually none of BS always-adjusted-upward-data would make it through the internal review boards of the Lancet, Science etc. if they were not about climate.

    I feel like I’m just above the threshold of my brainwash to not be distracted by the right vs. left spin on this site to read it. I think it’s necessary that other lefties find this site and explore the facts that are being left out. Naturally most of my friends are liberals but their identification with their parties messages, “live off the air so you don’t kill anything to eat, fund planned parenthood, tax billionaires, expand non-corporate welfare, stop fracking etc.”
    If they were to read a headline on this site that contradicted their team’s message, they wouldn’t read the facts. Or they would read the facts but determine this is right sided news and go running back to Seth Meyers, or their sanctioned bad boy, Bill Marr for the “facts.”

    Thanks so much for your efforts. This site and Tony Heller’s is a treat!

    Looking forward to your thoughts.

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