New Arctic Sea Ice Forecast

Yesterday I forecast that the Arctic would be ice-free on November 10, with temperatures at -15C. The slow melt this summer has forced me to make a more conservative forecast that the Arctic won’t be ice-free until Christmas, with temperatures at -30C.

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

This brings my forecast in line with NASA’s top climate prophet, James Hansen, who says the Arctic will definitely be ice-free before 2018.

The Argus-Press – Google News Archive Search

Note that my forecast is quite a bit more conservative than Nobel Laureate Al Gore, who won the Nobel Peace Prize for his outstanding climate research. He says that the Arctic has been ice-free for three years.

Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014

National Geographic, which made their reputation by publishing photographs of topless adolescents in the South Pacific, says that the North Pole has been ice-free for a decade.

North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer

President Obama’s science advisor, John Holdren, agrees with my forecast of an ice-free Arctic at -30C.

…if you lose the summer sea ice, there are phenomena that could lead you not so very long thereafter to lose the winter sea ice as well. And if you lose that sea ice year round, it’s going to mean drastic climatic change all over the hemisphere.

John Holdren, 2009

Note that my forecast is completely consistent with the North Pole having below-average temperatures every day this summer, and only has a few weeks left at above freezing.

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

Only 1,300 miles of 2-3 meter thick ice needs to melt in the next six weeks, at temperatures below 1C. This seems quite plausible based on ™Michael Mann ®Gavin Schmidt climate math.

DMI Modelled ice thickness

One more note. Only a complete moron would believe anything which government funded climate scientists say. They are some of the most dishonest and corrupt people in America.

Read more at Real Climate Science

Comments (2)

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    Spurwing Plover


    And the arctic was suppose to be Ice Free by now according to Gore and his false prophecies

    • Avatar



      Conservative billionaires used a secretive funding route to channel nearly $120m (£77m) to more than 100 groups casting doubt about the science behind climate change, the Guardian has learned.

      The funds, doled out between 2002 and 2010, helped build a vast network of thinktanks and activist groups working to a single purpose: to redefine climate change from neutral scientific fact to a highly polarising “wedge issue” for hardcore conservatives.

      The millions were routed through two trusts, Donors Trust and the Donors Capital Fund, operating out of a generic town house in the northern Virginia suburbs of Washington DC. Donors Capital caters to those making donations of $1m or more.

      Whitney Ball, chief executive of the Donors Trust told the Guardian that her organisation assured wealthy donors that their funds would never by diverted to liberal causes.
      Koch Industries Executive Vice President David H. Koch : Funding climate chang deniers
      The funding stream far outstripped the support from more visible opponents of climate action such as the oil industry or the conservative billionaire Koch brothers. Photograph: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

      So we shouldn’t believe over 1 million scientist who have worked on the Global Warming and Climate Change SCIENCE since the 60’s….in over 120 nations around the world…..
      WE should Believe the Multi Million Dollar propaganda machine paid for by BILLIONAIRES with self interest exclusively in mind.

      YEP ! I am sure they understand the science of MAKING BILLIONS while not giving a sh.t about the those mere mortals that cook their food, drive their limos and fight in THEIR wars.

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