According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), three of the hottest years in measurement history (note! not the warmest) have been 2016, 2019, and 2020 (see Figure 1 after the jump).
The total radiative forcings (RF) according to the IPCC reports and the temperature changes calculated from them have also been added to Figure 1, according to the IPCC’s simple climate model.
These values show that only the temperature measured in 2005 and the model-calculated values have been more or less the same (adjusted by aerosol/cloud forcings).
This value is embarrassing for the IPCC that the total climate forcings were lower than in 2000, even though greenhouse gas concentrations had risen by 2005.
According to the latest assessment report AR5 of IPCC, the temperature increase from 1880 to 2011 had been 0.85°C and the IPCC climate forcings give a value of 1.17°C, so there was an error of 0.32°C (38%).
This is probably the reason why there are no model-calculated temperature values for 2011 in the AR5, but plenty of future forecasts.
Therefore, this is a conclusion: The IPCC models calculate future temperatures accurately, but they are not suitable for calculating current temperatures from 1750 or from 1880 onward.
The new IPCC report, AR6, will be published in April 2021. Since it takes a couple of years to make a report, the latest data, which can still be used in the calculations are the years 2019 and 2020.
Both years have been looking very good for the IPCC because the measured and calculated temperatures are finally very close to each other.
Some dark clouds have been recently appeared on the horizon, which can be observed in Figure 2.
Since October 2010, the temperature has dropped from 0.4°C in November to 0.15°C in December, to 0.12°C in January, and to 0.2°C in February.
Temperature changes since 2014 can be assessed against the background information that carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations have increased from 398.87 ppm in 2014 to 414.24 ppm in 2020.
According to IPCC science, this change causes a temperature change of 0.1°C meaning 0.02°C per year. After 2014, the culprit for drastic temperature changes cannot be CO2 or man, even according to IPCC science, although the media writes this.
The strong temperature increase of about 0.6°C caused by the 2015-16 super El Nino is well known, but there is an understandable desire to keep quiet about it in this context, as the general public is unaware of this. The temperature effects of ENSO events are shown in Figure 2 as a blue curve.
Until 2014, ENSO events explain quite well the changes in temperature, but since then the temperature has been high in 2019-2020, even though El Ninos have been small in size.
For the high temperatures in 2019 and 2020, I have not seen research results or blog posts, with exceptions of references 1 and 2. Figure 3 shows the main cause of this warming.
Mother Nature has quietly arranged an easy-to-measure experiment, which has been kept in silence both by the climate establishment and by dissidents.
It is not a change in solar activity, and therefore I call it short-wave radiation, which has grown sharply especially since 2014. A probable reason is a change of low-level clouds, Ref. 1.
The radiation level in 2001 is clearly lower than in the later years. The trend in 2020 initially followed the 2019 curve closely, but then there was a change after September. Global temperatures fell sharply in December 2020 and have remained at a lower level so far.
The change in shortwave radiative forcing (RF) is significant. According to the IPCC science, the temperature effect of a change in RF at the top of the atmosphere is calculated by multiplying the RF value by the climate sensitivity parameter λ.
According to the IPCC, the value of the λ is 0,5 K/(Wm-2). This value means the positive feedback of water, which doubles the value of all other RFs.
According to my own research, there is no positive feedback in the atmosphere except the case of ENSO phenomena and therefore the value of λ is 0,27 K/(Wm-2).
So, a change in RF of 1 Wm-2 causes a temperature change of approximately 0,3°C, Ref. 3. The large model-calculated temperature differences in Figures 4 and 5 are due to the different λ values.
Figure 4 shows that my model explains very well the temperature changes. If you’re wondering why the last value of shortwave radiation in this presentation is from May 2020, the explanation is that NASA updates new versions for CERES satellites every 2-3 months, and now the last monthly value is from October 2020.
Since CERES values include seasonal variation, they must be averaged using the 12-month method, i.e. monthly values must be available 6 months backward and 6 months forward.
The IPCC has three reasons to be silent about the recent temperature trend changes. Firstly, the change in the level of shortwave radiation between 2001 and 2020 was 1.75 Wm-2, which corresponds to a temperature change of 0.88°C.
This value can be compared with the IPCC’s RF value of CO2, which was according to AR5 1.68 Wm2 from 1750 to 2011. The IPCC’s policy is that only humans should be blamed.
Secondly, the causes of climate change are man-made, and if the rise of temperature seems to be in line with the IPCC model, it is of course a good thing for the IPCC.
Thirdly, the IPCC’s simple model gives a rise in temperature after 2014, which is about 0.5 °C higher than the measured GISTEMP temperature, Figure 5.
Here too, the climate establishment has followed Wittgenstein’s instruction that “whereof we cannot speak, thereof we must remain silent.”
We have no way of knowing whether the change in shortwave radiation will be short-lived, such as the 2017-18 drop, or whether the decrease in the anomaly will continue permanently.
The experiment, organized by Mother Nature, already shows beyond doubt: there is no positive feedback of water in the atmosphere.
This experiment has already revealed that the IPCC models are not working, because they run too hot. The release of the IPCC assessment report AR6 in April 2021 will have a poor starting point because the IPCC climate science does not reflect reality.
On the other hand, the journalists have so poor know-how in climate science that the IPCC’s explanations may pass through the media without question, especially since contrarian scientists will have no opportunity to make any criticisms.
References
- Loeb NG, Thorsen TJ, Norris JR, Wang H, Su W. Changes in earth’s energy budget during and after the “pause” in global warming: an observational perspective. 2018;6:62. doi:103390/cli6030062.
- Ollila, A. The pause end and major temperature impacts during super El Niños are due to shortwave radiation anomalies. Sc. Int. J. 24(2), 1-20 (2020).
- Ollila, A. The potency of carbon dioxide (CO2) as a greenhouse gas. Dev. in Earth Sc. 2, 20-30 (2014).
Antero Ollila is Dr. Tech. from the Helsinki University where he has been Adj. Ass. Professor till 2011. Thereafter he has carried out research work writing 19 papers encompassing the greenhouse effect, radiative and warming effects of greenhouse gases, carbon circulation, the energy balance of the Earth, and dynamical simulations of climate.
Reading the news from around the world confirms that IPCC models and observed weather have not matched for a long time with the latter too hot. Winter cold and snow consistently fail to be moderat as the alarmists promised. Trying to measure a global temperature with precision to a tenth of a degree is surely fiction. Yes, the earth is cooling and that is confirmed by Harvard research reconstructed the renamed our inter glacial the HOLOCENE CONUNDRUM because of the unexpected decline in temperatures for the past 5000 years.
James, any idea as to why there’s no mention of the 25th GSM? Here at our place, it is obvious something else is going on because we have had virtually no summer and a lot of cloudy days since mid December. I’m 72 and I have never experienced a summer like this in my life time. It’s been like early autumn most days.
In my neck of the woods, we hardly experienced any days over one hundred degrees Fahrenheit this Australian summer just past. This is most unusual.
When we did, the days were more like southern coastal conditions where a high was reached for a period of relatively shorter duration.
Given modern thermometer technology, a spike of heat can be easily measured in a way that wasn’t possible with old-time equipment. A minimum overnight temperature will give some idea of how hot it has been at 9am, but it is only with a series of recordings that a daily temperature is truly explained. The media tend to latch onto the headline assessments, though.
The upshot is that a hundred degree F day in the Victorian capital, Melbourne, is rarely as continuously hot as a 100 degree day in the inland north of the state, as tourists will often attest to.
Yet, if all one looks at are simple maxima, these quite differing experiences are deemed to be exactly the same.
The time scales used in the analysis may be a little too short. Please take a look at the UAH data presented in the link below and compare the long term trends in the left frame with the corresponding decadal trends in the right frame.
https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/11/global-warming-dec2020/
According to the internal climate variability issue in climate science, the time scale for this kind of evaluation must be longer than 30 years. Link to internal variability in the next comment.
Link to internal clumate variability.
https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/
To Chaamjamal. The time constants of the Earth’s temperature response are 1 month for land and 3 months for the ocean. It means that a stepwise change of a climate driving force has a full effect after about 1 year. Otherwise, we could not observe so quick changes in temperature trends. The period of 10 years is long enough for detecting the behavior of different climate models. In Figure 1 you can see the driving forcings and corresponding temperature effects of the IPCC’s climate model calculated from the year 1880. These numbers are not invented by me but they are from Assessment Reports of the IPCC and for the year 2020 from NASA greenhouse index table.
Thank you Antero. As you can see in the charts provided, steady long term warming trends are creations of volatile decadal trends.
https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/11/global-warming-dec2020/
If you ignore the government’s corrupt activities to alter temperature data, the data shows a global cooling trend. The fake 97% consensus is a big lie. There is no climate change crisis — there’s a climate collusion crisis … https://newtube.app/user/RAOB/drbkiaw