Extreme Weather Hype: The Myth Of Increasing Disasters

The debate surrounding the purported increase in natural disasters due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has been a cornerstone of the climate crisis narrative for decades. [emphasis, links added]

However, a thorough examination of the data from sources like the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) shows globally reported natural disasters from 1970 to 2024 reveal a more nuanced reality.

Upon closer inspection, the claim that increasing GHGs are responsible for an uptick in natural disasters appears increasingly tenuous, if not outright false.

No Observable Increase in Natural Disasters Since 2000

The EM-DAT data, as illustrated by the figure below, shows a notable rise in the number of reported natural disasters from the 1970s to around 1999.

However, after this point, the trend plateaus with no substantial increase observed in the frequency of natural disasters up to 2024.

This is critical because it contradicts the mainstream narrative that ties the rise of natural disasters directly to increasing GHG concentrations.

Since 2000, there has been a dramatic increase in CO2 emissions, driven largely by industrial growth in emerging economies like China and India.

Indeed, more CO2 has been added to the atmosphere in the past two decades than in any previous period in human history.

According to the climate crisis narrative, this should have led to a corresponding increase in extreme weather events and natural disasters. However, the data clearly show otherwise.

Historical Context and Data Quality Pre-2000

It’s crucial to acknowledge that the apparent increase in natural disaster reports from the 1970s to 1998 is, to a large extent, a reflection of improved data collection and reporting.

The EM-DAT website itself acknowledges this issue:

This admission is significant because it undermines the narrative that natural disasters were increasing at an unprecedented rate before the year 2000.

The rise in reported disasters is largely attributable to better monitoring, more comprehensive data collection, and improved communication systems, rather than an actual increase in the frequency of such events.

In essence, the data before 2000 were less complete, and the increasing number of reported disasters during the latter half of the 20th century can be attributed to improvements in record-keeping rather than a surge in actual events.

After the turn of the millennium, when global reporting mechanisms had matured, the number of reported disasters stabilized, further emphasizing that any previous upward trend was a function of reporting, not reality.

The Role Of CO2: More GHGs, No More Disasters

The most glaring contradiction in the climate crisis narrative is the fact that despite a significant increase in CO2 emissions since 1998, there has been no corresponding increase in natural disasters.

This fact alone dismantles the argument that CO2 is the primary driver of extreme weather events and disasters.

If CO2 were the primary cause of natural disasters as climate alarmists often claim, we would expect to see a dramatic surge in disasters over the past two decades, coinciding with the steep rise in global CO2 concentrations. However, the data do not support this hypothesis.

Instead, the number of reported disasters has remained relatively stable, despite record levels of CO2 emissions. This is a crucial piece of evidence that challenges the fundamental premise of the climate crisis narrative.

What About Extreme Weather Events?

Some proponents of the climate crisis narrative argue that while the total number of disasters may not have increased, the severity of these events has worsened due to climate change. However, this claim also lacks robust empirical support.

While individual extreme weather events may garner significant media attention, there is no clear, consistent trend in the data to suggest that these events are becoming more frequent or severe on a global scale.

For instance, the data on droughts, floods, wildfires, and other disaster types do not show a clear increase since 1998.

If anything, the data suggest that natural variability plays a far more significant role in determining the occurrence and intensity of these events than anthropogenic factors like CO2 emissions.

Irrational Fear is written by climatologist Dr. Matthew Wielicki and is reader-supported. If you value what you have read here, please consider subscribing and supporting the work that goes into it.

Read rest at Irrational Fear