Climatologist: No, We Did Not Just Have The Hottest Year In The Last 125,000

Hottest year in the last 125,000…?

Been seeing headlines such as this lately:

With quotes such as this…

The Earth just endured its hottest 12 months in the modern era, and probably the hottest in 125,000 years, according to an analysis published Thursday.

So, did you just live through the hottest year in the last 125,000?

Mid-Holcene Thermal Maximum…

Our planet’s climate has undergone significant fluctuations throughout its history, with periods of warmth and coldness alternating over vast timescales.

One such period of remarkable warmth, known as the Mid-Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), occurred between roughly 9,000 and 5,000 years ago, during the early to mid-Holocene epoch.

Despite the preindustrial levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, the Northern Hemisphere experienced temperatures considerably warmer than modern [times].

This period was characterized by increased summer solar insolation, which led to a rise in global temperatures. The HTM was particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere, where some regions experienced warming of up to 9°C (16°F) compared to preindustrial levels.

Note that modern climate change has been 1.1 °C since 1880.

A study in 2020 estimated that during the warmest 200-year period of the HTM, global temperatures were about 0.7 °C warmer than the 19th century’s average, right before the Industrial Revolution.

Notably, the temperatures during the HTM in the Northern Hemisphere, especially during the summers, were warmer than the present average.

However, the tropics and some parts of the Southern Hemisphere were colder than average during this time.

In regions like Svalbard, near the North Pole, temperatures during the HTM were about 9°C higher than present-day temperatures. Across the western Arctic, out of 140 sites studied, 120 exhibited conditions warmer than the present.

In particular, 16 of these sites showed local temperatures on average ~2°C higher during the optimum than today.

The warmer temperatures during the HTM had a profound impact on the environment and human societies.

In the Northern Hemisphere, glaciers and ice sheets retreated, leading to rising sea levels and changes in vegetation patterns. Forests expanded into areas that were previously too cold for trees to grow, and new plant and animal species emerged.

In Greenland, the ice sheet shrank by up to 50%, and the coastline retreated by hundreds of kilometers. In Scandinavia, forests expanded into areas that were previously covered by tundra.

New plant and animal species emerged [in North America], such as the American mastodon and the giant short-faced bear.

In Europe, people began to cultivate crops such as grapes and wheat, and they developed new technologies such as boats and fishing gear.

The HTM eventually ended around 5,000 years ago, as solar insolation decreased. However, the legacy of the HTM can still be seen today in the distribution of plants and animals, as well as in the cultural traditions of many Northern Hemisphere societies.

The HTM is a reminder of the potential for significant climate change to occur over relatively short periods. It also highlights the importance of understanding the causes of past climate change to better predict future climate trends.

In conclusion: You did not just live through the hottest year ever.

The Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) challenges our understanding of climate dynamics, particularly concerning the role of greenhouse gases.

Despite the lower levels of atmospheric CO2 during the HTM compared to modern [times], the Northern Hemisphere experienced significantly warmer temperatures.

This phenomenon underscores the complex interplay of various factors influencing Earth’s climate, including solar insolation, orbital changes, and natural feedback mechanisms in the climate system.

The HTM provides critical insights into natural climate variability and serves as valuable context for evaluating recent climate changes.

So, if you are one of the 87% of people who live in the Northern Hemisphere, you did not just live through the hottest year in the last 125,000.

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