A recent story published by The New Republic claims that various foods, popular especially during the Christmas holiday season, are declining due to climate change, perhaps soon to disappear from store shelves entirely. [emphasis, links added]
This is false.
Despite the anecdotal tales told by The New Republic about specific farmers’ respective plights, U.N. data clearly demonstrate a substantial growth in the production of each of the crops discussed over the past 35 years of global warming.
In the story, “Climate Change Is Coming for Your Favorite Holiday Foods,” New Republic intern Rachel Kahn writes:
“Chocolate, vanilla, coffee, cinnamon: The ingredients for your favorite holiday foods are becoming increasingly harder to grow because of climate change.”
If true, that would be news to the world market for these foods, each of which has seen substantial production growth since 2000 and before.
Climate Realism has repeatedly refuted past media claims that climate change was causing a decline in coffee and cocoa production, here, here, here, and here, for a few examples, and so we won’t spend further time on these thoroughly debunked claims, other than to point out that FAO data show that since 1990:
- Cocoa production has grown by more than 157 percent;
- In the Ivory Coast (Côte d’Ivoire), cocoa bean production increased by more than 194 percent (nearly doubling, and setting a new record in 2023);
- In Ghana, cocoa bean production expanded by just over 122 percent; and
- In Nigeria, cocoa bean production grew by almost 17 percent.
As far as coffee goes, FAO data show that since 1990, global coffee production has increased by 82 percent, setting the new record for highest production in 2023, including substantial growth in major coffee-producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam.
The New Republic piece throws the spices vanilla and cinnamon into the mix for the holiday tastes supposedly threatened by climate change.
Yet, just like with coffee and cocoa, the asserted decline does not bear up under scrutiny.
Vanilla production has more than doubled since 1990, according to FAO data, with production increasing by about 135 percent.
Cinnamon production expanded even more dramatically, with a production increase exceeding 289 percent. (See the graph, below)
With the tinniest bit of effort, Kahn or The New Republic’s fact-checkers and editors could have discovered these facts themselves. They evidently couldn’t let facts get in the way of a scary holiday story.
Indeed, the loss of coffee, chocolate (made from cocoa), cinnamon, or vanilla would make the holidays less festive and tasty.
Yet thankfully, and directly refuting The New Republic’s assertion, it is impossible to tease out or discern a tangible threat to the continued availability of those treats in the readily available data or production trends.
It is sad when, rather than an exploration of the facts, a false narrative drives the news cycle, but that’s just what seemingly happened in this New Republic story, a fairy tale only the pre-converted Grinch could love.
Read more at Climate Realism
