Scientists Claim An ‘Exceptionally Unlikely’ Global Warming Scenario Could Be Worse Than Expected

Scientists put out a new study claiming the worst global warming predictions could be 15 percent worse than models suggest, but that’s based on a scenario experts say is increasingly unlikely to happen.

Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science say incorporating observational data of “Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget” shows the “warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 percent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) … relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.”

“Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated,” Brown and Caldeira wrote in the study.

Brown and Caldeira are referring to the RCP 8.5, or “business as usual” as it’s often called, a scenario the IPCC models in its reports. It’s the IPCC’s worst global warming scenario, where warming reaches more than 8 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century.

RCP 8.5 is basically the IPCC’s “nightmare” scenario. It’s also a scenario experts say is increasingly unlikely.

Two University of British Columbia scientists recently published a study calling into question scientists’ use of the RCP 8.5 scenario.

Scientists Justin Ritchie Hadi Dowlatabadi found that RCP 8.5 modeled a future where historical trends reverse, and the world switches to using more coal. This “indicates RCP8.5 and other ‘business-as-usual scenarios’ consistent with high CO2 forcing from vast future coal combustion are exceptionally unlikely,” they found.

Most energy experts see coal making up a shrinking proportion of global energy production in the coming decades. Though still predicted to play a major role in keeping the lights on, mainly from growth in Asia, natural gas and renewables eat into its market share in the coming decades.

However, scientists skeptical of catastrophic warming have been pointing this out for years. Former Cato Institute climate scientist Chip Knappenberger often pointed out that RCP 8.5 is not “business as usual.”

Labeling the worst modeled scenario as “business as usual” only served to make national pledges to comply with the Paris accord seem more ambitious than they actually were.

So, how did Brown and Caldeira conclude global warming could be worse than a scenario that’s unlikely?

Meteorologist Anthony Watts noted the study used “the CERES data to create a greater feedback in the model, and thus increase the worst-case scenario by 15%.” In other words, they “amplified” the model projection and “the choice of words is all about making you think they are being conservative with the numbers.”

Brown and Caldeira find a climate sensitivity of 3.7 °C, which is significantly higher than what most scientists use. It’s also at the high end of what the IPCC considers the likely range of climate sensitivity, and most independent studies put it between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius.

“Clearly, climate science doesn’t know exactly what the response of the atmosphere is to a doubling of CO2, but we have a range of opinions published in the literature,” Watts wrote on his blog Watts Up With That.

Read more at Daily Caller

Comments (8)

  • Avatar

    Spurwing Plover

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    Just two more fake scientists who will be getting big time attention from the lie a day news and Useless Nations just like with most all of these Global Warming/Climate Change con-men like Al Bore and the various Eco-Wacko groups

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      Sonnyhill

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      The Northern Hemisphere is well on its way into winter, when our tans are gone and our thoughts might drift away from global warming. “Damn, look at that heating bill! How can we afford a trip south?”
      So the Warmist Alarmists turn up the volume. “Your toilet seat might be cold but our Earth is cooking! You can’t see it or sense it because you’re a frog in a pot of water that’s about to boil. Well, not you maybe, but your tadpoles and pollywogs aren’t gonna make it unless you stop your selfish behavior ”
      Merry Christmas.

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    rakooi

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    “….“Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated,” Brown and Caldeira wrote in the study….”

    and the longer we listen to Name Calling KNOW-NOTHINGS who have never come up with an theory to explain WHY EARTH’S Most Powerful Natural Cycle, the ICE AGES, TERMINATED in the mid 1700’s, even though the Causes of Ice Ages continue to pull our orbit away from the sun, continue to tilt the earth away from the sun… and they have failed to offer a theory to explain WHY atmospheric layer called the TROPOSPHERE is WARMING…..while the Larger Layer of atmosphere, closer to the sun continues to COOL…how can 2 adjoining layers of atmosphere be moving in opposite directions in temperature, with the same sun heating them??
    Main Stream Science is almost universal in its understanding that the Human Release of Toxic Gases into our atmosphere for CENTURIES is causing these events…has DEMONSTRATED by thousands of laboratory experiments, been observed & recorded by hundreds of ground bases Stations, been observed and MEASURED by thousands and thousands of Satellite Sensors for DECADES.
    and been verified REPEATEDLY by thousands and thousands of Digital Balloon Launches year after year ! !

    THE ENHANCED GREEN HOUSE EFFECT DOES EXPLAIN THESE EVENTS
    … CO2 working hand-in-hand with
    WATER VAPOR
    and dozens of other GREEN HOUSE gases
    ….interferes with Earth’s Natural Cooling Process
    ….the emission of low energy Infra Red Heat Radiation to the cold of Space
    …….Infra Red Radiation is captured before the STRATOSPHERE and RE-radiated
    in all directions…much of it back toward Earth.
    THUS, The Stratosphere is cooling WHILE the Troposphere is warming….even though the STRATOSPHERE is closer to the SUN and has a vastly larger surface are facing the sun.
    ….THIS PROCESS HAS ALSO been observed and MEASURED by DIGITAL GROUND STATIONS AROUND THE WORLD, Satellites, Digital Balloon Launches for decades and decades.
    ((Always Spurning Plover comes to mind as ONE OF THOSE NO NOTHINGS,
    Always negating what is clearly been demonstrated for decades….all the while we listen to this nonsense from a name calling KNOW NOTHING<,we are not addressing the needs of the World's population, our economies and our civilization ))
    LOOK:
    In 1799 Alexander von Humboldt & Thomas Jefferson wrote of their observations of THIS occurrance.
    LOOK:
    http://www.realclimate.org/images//Marcott.png
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming#/media/File:2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png

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      Sonnyhill

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      Knock knock RAKOOI.” Thousands and thousands of satellite sensors? ” We had no idea!
      “Thousands and thousands of digital balloons”? (inflated with digits?)
      Ice Ages are not “powerful”, they are Earth in its weakest defeated lifeless state. Life as we know it loves warmth.
      “CO2 working hand-in-hand with water vapor?” Ha! CO2 is nothing compared to water vapor’s role in climate. And man-made CO2 is but 5% of what Earth creates by itself. 5% of .04% is? .002%.
      Why do I reply to your comments? Because people seeking truth might come to this website and read your hyperbole.

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        David Lewis

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        SONNYHILL
        Here is a history lesson that explains the water vapor connection. When this fraud was first starting out they calculated the impact of CO2 on warming. Their calculations showed that there would be warming, but not enough to worry about. Their goal was to force drastic changes in our society so they needed a fudge factor. What they came up with is that CO2 would cause some warming, this would cause more water to evaporate, this would get into the upper atmosphere, and then cause a great deal of warming. They made a mistake in that they picked something that could be measured. Weather balloons show that this was not happening. They moved onto other fudge factors eventually ending up as climate models that used many parameters.

        This water vapor connection to CO2 is pretty old so RAKOOI must be going though writings from different time periods.

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      David Lewis

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      You mention satellites, here is a peer reviewed article using satellites showing no acceleration in warming.

      https://climatechangedispatch.com/another-global-warming-study-casts-doubt-on-medias-climate-change-fairy-tale/

      RAKOOI, I suspect you don’t even understand the technical stuff you copy and paste.

      You often say that we were headed for another ice age except for man’s release of green house gasses. That isn’t true because carbon dioxide has little impact on temperature. However, if it were true, it would be a good thing. A colder climate would significantly cut food production as it did in the mini ice age.

  • Avatar

    Spurwing Plover

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    Everybody must evacuate Hurricane Rakooi is coming and its mostly Hot Air

  • Avatar

    Amber

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    Finally some good news … It’s expected to be warmer . More plant food and a greener earth …. got to love it . The CO2 being released by California brush fires is a Christmas bonus .

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