Scientists Are Still Trying To Convince Us The Global Warming ‘Hiatus’ Didn’t Happen

A group of Chinese scientists published a new study contradicting the new consensus about the causes of the recent “hiatus” in global warming.

Researchers claim the Arctic warmed six times faster than the global average from 1998 to 2012, based on a controversial method of calculating sea surface temperature and data collected from buoys floating in the region.

“We recalculated the average global temperatures from 1998-2012 and found that the rate of global warming had continued to rise at 0.112C per decade instead of slowing down to 0.05C per decade as previously thought,” Xiangdong Zhang, a professor University of Alaska Fairbanks, said in the study’s press release.

Zhang’s study echoes a 2015 study led by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientist Tom Karl. That study also eliminated the 15-year “hiatus” from temperature data by warming up readings taken from ocean buoys. Zhang analyzed the data with help from colleagues in China.

Karl’s paper stirred up the hornet’s nest and even attracted a congressional investigation into its methods. Eventually, former NOAA scientist John Bates claimed Karl put his “thumb on the scale” to “maximize warming and minimize documentation.”

Bates said Karl didn’t properly archive his data or go through proper quality checks, and that NOAA rushed its publication to influence international climate talks. Both Bates and Karl have since left NOAA.

NOAA is reviewing the Bates’s allegations and said it would convene an outside panel of experts to review Karl’s work.

Zhang’s paper isn’t the first to use Karl’s data, but it contradicts the new consensus in climate science that the “hiatus” in warming happened and that the models over-predicted warming during that time.

A recent paper, led by climate scientist Benjamin Santer, is the latest study to encapsulate scientific thought on the “hiatus.” Santer found “satellite-derived tropospheric warming trends were generally smaller than trends estimated from a large multi-model ensemble.”

Another study from April found the “observed trend deviated by as much as −0.17°C per decade from [model] ensemble-­mean projection —a gap two to four times the observed trend.”

“The hiatus, therefore, continues to challenge climate science, the study found.

Scientists were skeptical of Zhang’s work given the voluminous evidence there was, in fact, a “hiatus” in global warming.

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Comments (2)

  • Avatar

    David Lewis

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    The warming Hiatus is a major, major problem for the climate change movement. It has been happening during a period where most years the level of carbon dioxide has been rising dramatically. This clearly shows that their theory is wrong. Rather than do the ethical thing and follow the standard scientific process of revising the theory to fit the data, they are trying convince everyone that the data is different.

    Having said all of that, I do agree that the Hiatus, another word for pause, doesn’t exist. In order for there to be a pause, there has to be a restart of the warming. I believe rather than pause or Hiatus, we should be using the phase, “The end of the warming.” Of course the climate is always changing and some time in the future there will be warming again, but this period of warming is finished.

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  • Avatar

    rakooi

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    The PAUSE
    was invented by Doctors Christy and Spencer !
    ..and then defined as not”really ” pause…more of a slow down.
    …ANY RETAILER would have been sued for false Advertising…
    but
    then they double downed by inventing a new LABEL…..
    now it became
    THE HIATUS !
    equally redefined as just a slow down….on both of those invention days….they sent out tens of thousands of press releases to publicize the new inventions….and of course….they got front page news, hundreds of paid interviews and hundreds more paid TV/Radio Spots.

    THIS whole bit about PAUSE and HIATUS…….was predicted by these two reactionary ideologues back in the 1990’s when they told crowds that GLOBAL WARMING WOULD CEASE around 2000 when a new cooling trend leading to a NEW ICE AGE…………..

    OOOPS! Where is that prediction now, where was it in the 70’s when 3 other fossil fuel hacks made that prediction….
    Well it is not gone….it is a ZOMBIE…..now we have the new ice age coming in 2025,..and some are already hedging their bets….and saying 2030/2035…ha ha ha!

    and NOW, Ooops! We made a mistake! ..but we still BELIEVE in our original theory based on those MISTAKES ???

    “…Now two independent studies have found errors in the complicated calculations used to generate the old temperature records, which involved stitching together data from thousands of weather balloons lofted around the world and a series of short-lived weather satellites.

    A third study shows that when the errors are taken into account, the troposphere actually got warmer. Moreover, that warming trend largely agrees with the warmer surface temperatures that have been recorded and conforms to predictions in recent computer models.

    The three papers were published yesterday in the online edition of the journal Science.

    The scientists who developed the original troposphere temperature records from satellite data, John R. Christy and Roy W. Spencer of the University of Alabama in Huntsville, conceded yesterday that they had made a mistake

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