New Survey: Davis Strait Polar Bears In Eastern Canada Are Thriving

Pack ice is barreling down the Labrador coast, almost certainly bringing the Davis Strait polar bears with it.

And according to new survey results, those bears are doing just fine: numbers are stable, bears are fatter than they were in 2007, and cubs are surviving well – thanks largely to abundant harp seals.

According to the summary, the 2017-2018 survey generated a population estimate of 2,015 (range 1,603-2,588), which is statistically indistinguishable from the 2005-2007 study estimate of 2,158 (range 1,978-2,338).

Notice the range of potential error is much larger for the most recent estimate, which is a result of different methods used (Dyck et al. 2021; Peacock et al. 2013). No bears were captured and collared for the 2018 study (the full report has not yet been made public).

What’s interesting is that in 2007, the body condition of bears was noted to have been worse than it had been in the 1990s, yet the population size had increased markedly (Rode et al. 2012). Now body condition of bears has improved but numbers have not increased.

I suggest that it’s quite possible the actual number of bears in the population is at least somewhat greater than the official estimate indicates: that the real number lies closer to the higher end of the estimated range rather than at the middle.

Of course, that’s always the case because these estimates are based on counting a subsample of bears and extrapolating to the entire region using a mathematical model.

However, this is why other indicators are important. Good body condition and good cub survival indicate a population that’s in good shape.

Similar indicators have been seen in the Barents Sea and Chukchi Sea subpopulations (Aars et al. 2017; Norwegian Polar Institute 2021; Rode et al. 2014, 2018).

Certainly, 2017 and 2018 stood out as having many more sightings of bears along the Labrador and northern Newfoundland coast than there were in 2007.

In contrast, sea ice was extensive along that coast in 2007 yet there were no sightings of polar bears reported.

There were several sightings in 2008 and a spate of trouble in 2012 that resulted in a few bears being killed for safety concerns.

Then in 2017 and 2018 – the same years of the most recent population survey – there were reports of many more sightings: at least nine in 2017 amid extensive ice and even more (12-18) in 2018 (Crockford 2020:34).

Read rest at Polar Bear Science