Federal data show that no state had as many power outages across more than two decades as California. The nearly 500 grid breakdowns correlate with increases in renewable energy. Maybe there’s been no causation, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be in the future, because the intermittency of renewables is a mismatch with the power grid. [some emphasis, links added]
Using U.S. Department of Energy reports, Texas Electricity Ratings found that California had 493 power outages from 2003 through 2023. Texas, which is No. 2 to California’s No. 1 in total renewable energy consumption, was close behind with 468.
California’s recent blackout history began with five in 2003. The number doubled in 2004 and continued to rise, reaching 20 in 2010, 25 in 2015, 56 in 2020, and peaking at 69 in 2022.
Totals fell in some years compared with the previous year, but the overall trend is sharply upward.
Texas Electricity Ratings says California’s major grid disturbances coincide “with a clear seasonal rhythm tied to storm and heat-wave patterns.” Physical attacks and vandalism cause some outages and, in some instances, cyber events.
But California still had the most blackouts attributed to equipment/system failures (125) and fuel supply emergencies (35), and its outages don’t track cleanly with the national figures, which have peaked and valleyed but were roughly the same in 2023 as in 2003.
What does move along a line consistent with grid failures is the growth in California renewables.
Solar energy surged from near zero in 2003 to more than 19% of in-state generation and 17% of the state’s total power mix in 2023. Wind power grew from a blip in 2003 to 6.5% of in-state generation and 11% of the total power mix in 2023.
Nothing more than coincidence? Maybe. But we know that the power grid and renewables are an imperfect match.
Today’s grid was built to accommodate the fossil fuels that provide dispatchable power, meaning that it can be adjusted as demand rises and falls.
It was not designed to handle electricity from wind and solar, which have wide swings based on natural conditions.
Existing infrastructure, says Norton Rose Fulbright, a law firm with a global energy practice, “is struggling to keep pace with the proliferation of dispersed, intermittent renewables projects, many of which do not provide grid-forming capability and all of which require connection.”
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