All Wet: The UK Met Office’s Model Muddle

The Met Offices’ model-based rainfall forecasts have not stood up to empirical tests and do not seem to give better advice than observational records. In July this year, scientists from the UK Meteorological Office released a new study estimating the risk of UK regions suffering a record-breaking monthly rainfall between the months of October and March. But rather than producing an estimate of the risk based on the observational record, they claimed that computer models provided a far more useful and accurate result to inform policymakers about what to prepare for. A Met Office infographic explaining the work even shows the historical data being thrown into a waste bin. —GWPF TV, 3 August 2017

Germany’s rising consumption of oil, gas, and lignite in the first half of 2017 indicates that the country of the Energiewende (green energy transition) will see another increase in CO2 emissions in 2017 after a rise in 2016, said Agora Energiewende head Patrick Graichen. “The data translates to a one-percent increase of energy-related emissions, compared to the same period last year. This corresponds to about 5 million tonnes of CO2,” Graichen told Clean Energy Wire. —Green Energy Wire, 2 August 2017

Burning coal for power looks set to remain the backbone of Germany’s energy supply for decades yet, an apparent contrast to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ambitions for Europe’s biggest economy to be a role model in tackling climate change. Merkel is avoiding the sensitive subject of phasing out coal, which could hit tens of thousands of jobs, in the campaign for the Sept. 24 election, in which she hopes to win a fourth term. —Reuters, 2 August 2017 

Green taxes will cost households almost £150 from next year, British Gas has claimed as it blamed the Government for a huge rise in electricity bills for three million of its customers. Britain’s biggest supplier announced that from September electricity prices will increase by 12.5 per cent, adding £76 to the typical annual bill. The company said that the cost of green subsidies levied on bills has created “significant pressures” and suggested that it had no choice but to respond by raising prices. —The Daily Telegraph, 2 August 2017

The cost of green taxes on energy bills will more than treble over the next five years, the official economic forecaster has said. The Office for Budget Responsibility said that cost of the subsidies, which are levied on household and business energy bills, is expected to rise from £4.6billion in 2015-16 to £13.5billion in 2021-22. —The Daily Telegraph, 3 August 2017

The liberalised energy markets introduced by Nigel Lawson in 1982, embraced by the Blair government and emulated across Europe, delivered both affordability and reliability. But they were abandoned. All three parties share the blame for Britain’s policy fiasco. —The Times, 31 July 2017