Weak Solar Activity And La Nina Forebode Cooling Temperatures For The Months Ahead

The Sun in November 2017

By Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated and edited by P Gosselin)

In November the sun was unusually quiet with respect to its activity. The observed sunspot number (SSN) was merely 5.7, which is only 14% of what is typically normal for month number 108 into the cycle. The current cycle number 24 began in December 2008. The sun was completely spotless 19 of 30 days in November.

At the end of the month, some activity appeared but only at a very low level. The following chart depicts the current cycle’s activity:

Figure 1: The monthly SSN values for the current solar cycle 24 (red) 108 months into the cycle, the curve for the mean of the previous 23 cycles (blue), and the similar solar cycle number 5 (black).

The next chart shows a comparison of all observed solar cycles thus far:

Figure 2: The monthly accumulated anomalies of the cycles up to 108 months into the cycle. Cycle number 24 has taken third place for the most inactive.

The situation thus remains unchanged: such a weak solar cycle has not been witnessed in 200 years. It is anticipated with a quite high certainty that also the upcoming solar cycle number 25 will be about as weak because the sun’s polar fields are about as strong as they were during the minimum between cycle number 23 and cycle number 24.

The very weak solar north pole so far has recovered significantly over the past few months since June. What this means now and for the future can be seen graphically in the chart posted here. You can find the latest information at www.solen.info/solar.

LaNina is here

An update to our last post here is surely of interest. We were sure of a La Nina by the end of December, and in the meantime, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology officially announced a La Nina in its most recent bulletin. The current model forecast shows continued falling sea surface temperatures along the equatorial eastern Pacific until about February 2018:

Figure 3: The model for El Nino/La Nina in the Pacific, Source: NOAA. All forecasts point to a moderately strong La Nina event until spring. A powerful La Nina such as the one observed in 2011/12 is currently not projected by the models (which incidentally did not even forecast a La Nina just a few months ago).

The impacts on global temperatures lag behind by about 3 to 4 months, and so we should expect a La Nina dip by spring.

Read more at No Tricks Zone

Comments (5)

  • Avatar

    Spurwing Plover

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    I still would like to see it snow a lot and strand the Global Warming nuts in their homes i want them to have to go through waist deep snow in order to get to their little liberal hang-outs and find its closed

  • Avatar

    David Lewis

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    This author has made a typical mistake of people who are so knowledgeable. He assumes all of his readers have more knowledge than some do. Many but not all of us know that a weak solar translates to less heating of the earth. The mini ice age is attributed to low solar activity. The current solar cycle indicates that are at risk of another such event.

    Rather global warming, the money for mitigation really needs to prepare a mini ice age just in case we are so unlucky.

    • Avatar

      rakooi

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      During the LITTLE ICE AGE,
      which largely terminated around 1750-1780, the total dip in solar energy reaching the earth is equivalent to the amount of GLOBAL WARMING in 1 year.
      THERE will be no “mini ice age”
      There may be a DECREASE in the acceleration of Global Warming…which may be hardly noticeable…
      and
      that will be blended with the Cyclical decrease in warming associated with the end of major El Nino events.

  • Avatar

    Sonnyhill

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    The most radical environmentalists believe that humanity should have no influence at all. Rakooi opined that the Earth should be cooling right now. Their narrative implies that 100% of Earth’s temperature increase is our doing. No heretical talk of warming’s benefits from them.
    The sun? What about it?

  • Avatar

    rakooi

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    For the last half century, the sun’s out put has been relatively static…perhaps a little less output…..the 2007-2009 solar minimum had virtually NO effect on climbing temperatures.
    .
    After EVERY El Nino event
    …there has been a cooling for several years.
    THIS last event being a TRUE Climate Change Whiooer 2014-2017.
    ..it is reasonable to assume there will be another, perhaps longer, number of cooler years.
    THAT is historical fact.
    You choose to rewrite that reality!
    And here we have a “PREDICTION” based on your current theory.
    ..which you already know is likely to appear
    but to all the TRULY brainwashed
    ….you think they will buy the party line…

    Look, Boss, up in the sky…the SUN

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