Two New Papers: Temperatures, Sea Level Rise ‘Have No Apparent Relationship To Atmospheric CO2’

More Scientific Evidence For CO2’s Dubious Climate Impact Emerges

Image Source: Robertson and Chilingar, 2017

According to the most basic precepts of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), variations in CO2 concentrations exert significant control on sea surface temperatures, glaciers, sea levels, and generalized climate dynamics (i.e., precipitation patterns).

In particular, high CO2 concentrations, driven by human activity, are presumed to cause dangerously warming ocean waters, rapid glacier melt and sea level rise, and overall disruption to the Earth’s biosphere.

Newly published scientific papers wholly undermine this popularized conceptualization.

In fact, according to Bertrand et al. (2017), there has been a “marked cooling” of sea surface temperatures in the southernmost South America region during the last ~800 years — 3°C to 4°C colder than during the Medieval and Roman warm periods — that has continued unabated into “the most recent decades”.

Furthermore, abrupt glacier melt periods during Holocene warming events (as well as rapid glacier advances during Holocene cooling events) that easily exceed modern glacier morphology occurred in this region without any significant changes in CO2 concentrations.

To top it off, estimates of global sea levels during the last 4,000 years indicate that modern variability has been modest, at best.    Since 1900, sea levels have changed by less than 0.2 of a meter (IPCC, 2013).   During the Holocene, sea levels rose and fell by meters over a span of centuries.

In other words, the much higher CO2 concentrations that exist today relative to the last 10,500 years have effectively had no impact on sea surface temperatures, glacier melt, or sea levels.


Bertrand et al., 2017

During the last 4000 years, particularly low [sea surface temperature] values occur at 3500-3300 cal yr BP and during the most recent decades, and high values persisted between 2400 and 1600 cal yr BP.

[I]t is likely that the abrupt increases in SST around 3300-3200 and 2400-2200 cal yr BP participated in triggering the meltwater events at 3250-2700 and 2000-1200 cal yr BP, respectively.  … [O]ur sediment record clearly shows that CDI outlet glaciers melted rapidly at 3250-2700 and 2000-1200 cal yr BP, but re-advanced to calving locations relatively soon afterward (Neoglacial III and IV).

 [T]he marked cooling of the last ~800 years may have very little to do with meltwater input and may rather represent the regional decrease in ocean temperatures during the last ~900 years (Caniupan et al., 2014).


Another new paper published by Oliveira et al. (2017) suggests that climate dynamics — precipitation, annual temperature, and forest cover changes — in the Mediterranean/Western Europe/North Atlantic region “have no apparent relationship to atmospheric CO2 concentration”.  CO2 forcing is even characterized as “negligible” for this region.  Instead, climate dynamics are primarily induced by changes in solar activity.


Oliveira et al., 2017

[T]he millennial-scale vegetation changes in SW Iberia under warm interglacial climate conditions might be essentially generated by hydrological changes primarily induced by insolation [solar variability], as they are reproduced in the simulations despite the absence of ice sheet dynamics and all associated feedbacks in our experiments.

The transient simulations under the combined effect of insolation and CO2 indicate that the interglacial vegetation and climate dynamics over SW Iberia have no apparent relationship to atmospheric CO2 concentration, as suggested by the pollen-based reconstructions. Although the direct impact of CO2 changes on the vegetation growth is not included in the model, a prominent example for this negligible CO2 forcing is given by its relatively high concentrations over the end of the interglacials, in particular for MIS 1 and MIS 11c, while the forest cover, annual temperature, and annual precipitation achieved minimum values.

We find that the vegetation and climate changes at this time scale are mainly driven by astronomical forcing, in particular [solar] precession, in agreement with the strong impact of precession on the climate of the Mediterranean region south of 40°N.


The negligible impact of CO2 concentration variability on the Mediterranean/Western Europe/North Atlantic climate has also been documented by other scientists for recent decades.

According to models, the dramatic rise in human CO2 emissions after the 1940s should have had a discernible effect on climate.   And yet for this region, it has not.  Temperatures are no warmer now than they were in the mid-20th century despite this ostensibly strong human influence.

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Comments (11)

  • Avatar

    rakooi

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    Lots of local graphs…irrelevant to global warming…but they are added to this article to confuse you.
    This is the HOLOCENE Inter Glacial Warm Period.
    It PEAKED in temperature 7000-8000 years ago. Since then temps. have slowly been falling. Much of the last 1000 years is called the LITTLE ICE AGE.
    ICE AGE because of those falling temps.
    LITTLE because it ended 1750-1780.
    (even though Malinkovitch Cycles continue to
    ‘MOVE EARTH TOWARD’ the next ICE AGE (glaciation)
    …A POWERFUL FORCE is RAISING TEMPERATURES)
    Since around 1800 temps have been rising in spits & sputters…but rising.
    Look: http://www.realclimate.org/images//Marcott.png

    Since 71% of the EARTH is water, Temperatures and the rise of CO2 working with H2O along with dozens of other greenhouse gases
    CANNOT move identically…..but
    Temperatures are rising (skeptics have NO explanation other than the Enhanced greenhouse effect)
    CO2 & Green House gas levels in the atmosphere are rising as well.

    “…Human / Industry is producing 135 TIMES MORE CO2
    than ALL EARTH’s Volcanoes Combined
    ….every year !
    .
    Lead Scientists Questioned Green House Gas effects,
    and
    In 1970,
    NASA launched the IRIS satellite measuring infrared spectra.
    GOOGLE ( IRIS SATELLITE RESEARCH ABSTRACT)
    In 1996,
    the Japanese Space Agency launched the IMG satellite
    GOOGLE ( IMG SATELLITE RESEARCH ABSTRACT)
    which recorded similar observations.
    Both sets of data were compared to discern any changes
    in escaping radiation levels over the 26 year period

    Google (Harries 2001 research abstract)
    .
    What they found was a drop in Escaping Infra Red radiation
    at the PRECISE wavelength bands that greenhouse gases such as CO2, H2O, CFC’s, Ozone, Nitrous Oxides, and methane (CH4) absorb energy.

    The DECREASE IN ESCAPING I.R. radiation was consistent
    with theoretical Expectations / Predictions.
    Thus research & paper found

    “direct experimental evidence for a significant increase
    in the Earth’s greenhouse effect” and Warming on Earth.

    IF INFRA RED Low Energy HEAT RADIATION CANNOT ESCAPE to COLD SPACE…..THEN IT IS Trapped here on earth, WARMING !
    .

    Reply

    • Avatar

      Jaypee is an idiot

      |

      Completely agree with you. Cherry picked regions and selected graphs dunbed down enough to get the attention of the intellectually-challenged denier.
      Menwhile, 2017 is on track to be the 2nd warmest year on record making the last 4 years the top 4 years. Even more remarkable is that this is a non El Niño year.

      Reply

      • Avatar

        Bart

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        “On record” just means since the end of the Little Ice Age. A statistically insignificant period of less than 150 years. Of course temps have risen since then. And the “record” is just a few hundredths more than the previous record. Another statistically insignificant amount.

        Reply

        • Avatar

          Jaypee is an idiot

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          No, I am talking about the instrumental record since 1880. Proxy records are needed to determine the temperature record. For that, we have Michael Mann’s hockey stick of last century and the 3 dozen hockey sticks from this century.

          Reply

        • Avatar

          Jaypee is an idiot

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          Oh, and according to JAXA, NOAA, NASA, HADcru, RSS, BEST, and UAH, the surface temperatures are rising at 0.12 to 014 degrees per decade. Well beyond statistical insignificance.

          Reply

          • Avatar

            Sonnyhill

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            Or 1.2 to 1.4 Celsius per century. WOW! Panic in the streets.

          • Avatar

            Jaypee is an idiot

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            The difference between Dallas and Denver or Atlanta and Richmond. That is the end of this century – next century Bostonbecomes like Atlanta, century after that Winnipeg. Yeah it is a big deal.
            And it triggers feedbacks like the collapse in global sea ice which means less sun gets reflected and more gets absorbed into the oceans which means less sea ice, etc etc and so on.

  • Avatar

    Spurwing Plover

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    Providing to the facts that 40 years ago it was Global Cooling and a New Ice Age was coming and Al Bore and his rediculous claim the Arctic would be Ice Free and yet there are still suckers who listen to him and recite his dumb poem

    Reply

  • Avatar

    Spurwing Plover

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    The hottest year was 1934 long before SUV’s or Home Air Conitioners and we still had the Great Depression

    Reply

    • Avatar

      Jaypee is an idiot

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      Uhh – that was in the continental US – les than 2% of the world.
      GLOBALLY speaking, 23 of the warmest years on record have occurred in the past 26 with top TOP 4 being the LAST 4.

      Reply

      • Avatar

        Sonnyhill

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        The focus of Mann’s hockey stick temperature graph was one tree’s rings, found in Quebec’s Gaspe Peninsula. He then extrapolated that info onto the Northern Hemisphere. That’s what the UN ran with. That’s cherry-picking local data. Even then, he threw out what undermined his mission from Strong.

        Reply

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