The CO2-induced “polar amplification” narrative peddled by climate alarmists has just taken another hit. [some emphasis, links added]
It has been shown previously that increasing CO2 by more than 120 ppm (from 278 to 400 ppm) cools the Antarctic climate (Notholt et al., 2024).
These scientists found that there has been a slight (-0.01°C) net cooling effect of CO2 in Antarctica since 1750.
Now, a new study suggests Arctic CO2 cooling may occur as increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 radiatively cool the Arctic, too.
Rising concentrations of greenhouse gases – presumed to be derived from anthropogenic emissions – induce Arctic cooling “primarily due to the near-saturation of infrared absorption [CO2 and CH4] in the lower atmosphere”.
“In the lower atmosphere (>700 hPa), the magnitude of the CO2 kernel decreases significantly, indicating a weaker suppression of outgoing longwave radiation by increased CO2 concentrations. …
“In the lower atmosphere, from the surface to approximately 400 hPa, the heating rate [derived from increasing CO2] exhibits relatively large negative values, indicating strong radiative cooling. …
“…the heating rate remains negative at all levels, indicating the longwave radiation leads to net atmospheric radiative cooling. …
“…the observed vertical structure enhances outgoing longwave radiation compared with the uniform distribution, thereby strengthening radiative cooling in the Arctic atmosphere.”
If increasing CO2 leads to radiative cooling in the Antarctic and Arctic, then CO2 cannot be a driver of polar ice sheet, glacier, or sea ice melt.
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