Old Farmer’s Almanac vs. NOAA’s Winter Forecasts

Weather.com reported this week that massive winter storms of snow, ice, and freezing weather have wreaked havoc across the Midwest and Northeast.

In addition, Weather.com reported that over 400 daily cold records were set since the cold flowed into the continental US in mid-November.

NOAA’S Winter Climate Forecast

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast in the Autumn, that warmer-than-average temperatures were in store for the country.

NOAA wrote on October 17th “Winter Outlook: Warmer than average for many, wetter in the North.”

“Warmer-than-average temperatures are forecast for much of the U.S. this winter… below-average temperatures are not favored.”

Given that NOAA predicted a warm winter, we have to ask… is there any climate organization that can be trusted to make accurate forecasts?

There is, and of course, it’s the Old Farmer’s Almanac.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac bases its winter forecasts on astronomical space science of the 1800s and extreme skill and experience of their forecasters.  And importantly on honesty, because they have to get it right.  No choice.  If they don’t, farmers suffer and they themselves go bankrupt.

The UN and NOAA face no consequences for inaccurate forecasts.

Background Of The Old Farmer’s Almanac

For over 200 years, founded in 1792 (with a second competitive version beginning publication in 1818), American farmers have been depending on the skill and accuracy of the Almanac seasonal forecasts.

The Almanac forecasts have to be right. If they are not, farmers who depend on it could suffer financial loss or loss of life.

This Winter’s Climate (2019 – 2020) Forecast Made In The Autumn By The Almanac

The managing editor of Almanac Version 1 (founded 1792) summed it up:

“We’re using a very strong four-letter word to describe this winter, which is C-O-L-D. It’s going to be very cold.

Version 2  of the Almanac (founded 1818) agrees.

“We expect yet another wild ride this winter,” editor Peter Geiger said, “with extreme temperatures swings and some hefty snowfalls.”

The coming winter is described by version 2 as a “polar coaster” for about 70% of the US.

According to the Almanac, which has been on the bullseye recently in winter forecasts, the Northern Plains and Great Lakes area should expect temperatures dropping to -40 (F).

The Almanac provides climate forecasts nationally and state-by-state. Iowa, for example, is predicted to have a “frigid and snowy” winter.

Democrat-controlled Illinois, which is preparing for global warming, and putting the few and obsolete snowplows they have into storage based on the NOAA mild weather prognostication…is projected to have it even worse than Iowa.

Illinois has a dual-winter climate forecast with part of the state “frigid and snowy” and the other part “frozen and snowy”.

“Only the western third of the country will see near-normal winter temperatures, which means fewer shivers for them,” the Almanac (Version 2) writes.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast a brutally cold winter for 70% of the country. So far this year, the Almanac has been right on target.

And in this frigid forecast, the Old Farmer’s Almanac has a high tech ally.  That is the NASA Langley Research Laboratory.

The chief scientist of the Langley Research Laboratory, Dr. Martin Mlynczac, has developed a satellite method and system of calculating the loss of heat energy from the earth from its atmosphere into space.

Dr. Mlynczac wrote:

“We see a cooling trend… High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a space-age record for cold.”

The reason for this present and coming cold climate is of course… the sun. The sun controls climate on earth, and weather as well. The effect of CO2 is zero. And we are now in a deep Grand Solar Minimum, with the sun in a cooler phase.

So For Climate Forecasting, Who Can We Trust?

Invest in long underwear and a copy of the Old Farmer’s Almanac and you’ll be ready.

Tom Harris is Executive Director of the International Climate Science Coalition. A well-known author and climate expert. He has three decades of experience as a leading mechanical engineer. The International Climate Science Coalition is a non-partisan group of independent scientists, economists, and energy and policy experts.

Jay Lehr, Senior Policy Advisor for the International Climate Coalition, and for CFACT.  For many years chief scientist of the Heartland Institute. A leading scientist in the US in hydrology, environment and climate issues, he has testified before Congress on dozens of occasions.

Joel Glass is an engineer working in the field of water infrastructure for ultra-cold climate environments. He is the author of the groundbreaking new book, ICE AGE 2025: HOW TO PREPARE AMERICA AND YOUR FAMILY, which shows how the Earth is heading into a colder climate.