I thought the following paper was interesting.
No, lead-author Prof. Pierre Gosselin is not me from NTZ. But he very likely is a descendant the same family line. The first Gosselin (Gabriel) left Normandy-France and landed in Quebec City way back in 1653. As a devout Catholic, Gabriel earnestly started what was the population of Gosselins over North America and beyond over the next 364 years.
In a recent study, a team of scientists led by Prof. Pierre Gosselin assessed 112,793 people aged 65 years and older who had been diagnosed with heart failure in Quebec between 2001 and 2011.
Over an average of 635 days, the researchers measured the mean temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and air pollutants in the surrounding environment and studied the data to see if there was any relationship.
Their results: for each decrease of 1°C in the daily mean temperature of the previous 3 and 7 days, the risk of heart failure events is increased by about 0.7%. In other words, a drop of 10°C in the average temperature over 7 days, which is common in the province of Quebec because of seasonal variations, is associated with increased risk to be hospitalized or to die for the main cause of heart failure of about 7% in elderly diagnosed with this disease.
The paper’s abstract:
We measured the lag effects of temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on hospitalizations and deaths for HF in elderly diagnosed with this disease on a 10-year period in the province of Quebec, Canada.
Our population-based cohort study included 112,793 elderly diagnosed with HF between 2001 and 2011. Time-dependent Cox regression models approximated with pooled logistic regressions were used to evaluate the 3- and 7-day lag effects of daily temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and PM2.5 exposure on HF morbidity and mortality controlling for several individual and contextual covariates.
Overall, 18,309 elderly were hospitalized and 4297 died for the main cause of HF. We observed an increased risk of hospitalizations and deaths for HF with a decrease in the average temperature of the 3 and 7 days before the event. An increase in atmospheric pressure in the previous 7 days was also associated with a higher risk of having an HF negative outcome, but no effect was observed in the 3-day lag model. No association was found with relative humidity and with PM2.5 regardless of the lag period
Lag effects of temperature and other meteorological parameters on HF events were limited but present. Nonetheless, preventive measures should be issued for elderly diagnosed with HF considering the burden and the expensive costs associated with the management of this disease.
Lower risk of death in summer
The authors also found:
The results showed a higher risk of hospitalization or death in the winter period of the year (October to April) compared to the summer period (May to September).”
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