The Met Office have published their latest five-year forecast of global temperatures:
A new forecast published by scientists at the Met Office indicates the annual global average temperature is likely to exceed 1°C and could reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels during the next five years (2018-2022).
There is also a small (around 10%) chance that at least one year in the period could exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900), although it is not anticipated that it will happen this year. It is the first time that such high values have been highlighted within these forecasts.
Prof Stephen Belcher, Chief Scientist at the Met Office, said: “Given we’ve seen global average temperatures around 1°C above pre-industrial levels over the last three years, it is now possible that continued warming from greenhouse gases along with natural variability could combine so we temporarily exceed 1.5°C in the next five years.”
What that chart really tells us though, is that, despite the benefit of hindsight, actual temperatures prior to the 2015/16 El Nino have been close to the bottom of both the retrospective forecasts and climate simulations.
Barring another record El Nino in the next five years, I see no evidence that temperatures will rise at all.
As ever with these forecasts, there is a huge range of forecast, up to nearly half a degree. Clearly, they have little confidence in their ability to divine the future.
As for the banner line that the annual global average temperature is likely to exceed 1°C, is meaningless as that is where current temperatures are anyway.
Why the Met Office is so obsessed with 19th-century climate is a mystery.
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