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New Study: Climate Models Miss This Natural CO2 Source Hiding in Plain Sight

Non-volcanic emissions are rewriting the natural carbon cycle.

by Kenneth Richard
June 11, 2026, 2:07 PM
in Geology, News and Opinion, Science
Reading Time: 1 min read
A A
3

tectonic movement
In a new study, Professor of Earth Sciences Dr. István Kovács emphasizes that climate models fail to account for CO2 emissions linked to tectonic processes or widespread mantle degassing. [some emphasis, links added]

Instead, the modern carbon budget accountants primarily consider CO2 emissions from the tiny number of Earth’s active volcanoes and ignore the non-negligible mantle-derived emission quantities from continental regions where no active volcanism exists.

So while on the one hand it is true that “the natural geological flux from Earth’s interior continues to play an essential role in regulating atmospheric CO2 over geological timescales,” on the other hand “our understanding is heavily biased towards areas of active volcanism.”

This active-volcanism-only bias severely underestimates natural contributions to the carbon cycle and consequently leads to inaccurate flux measurements.

Image Source: Kovács, 2026

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Comments 3

  1. Richard Greene says:
    3 weeks ago

    nature has been a net CO2 absorber for billions of years
    (includes volcanoes and vents)

    CO2 increases since 1850 = 100% from man-made CO2 emissions

    annual carbon cycle does not add CO2 to the atmosphere year over year

    there are NO measurements of CO2 released by underseas volcanoes
    and vents, so we cannot even come to a conclusion about
    whether there is a rising trend or declining trend

    such measurements are not needed
    because man made CO2 emissions
    are far larger than the actual increase
    in atmospheric CO2

    man made CO2 emissions are about +5 PPM per year
    atmospheric CO2 rises about +2.5 PPM a year
    that means nature is a net absorber
    of about 2.5 PPM of CO2 each year

    why science deniers cannot figure this out is puzzling

    Reply
    • Steve Bunten says:
      3 weeks ago

      Since 1850 humans caused CO2 to increase? Where the hell did you come up with that? What were humans doing to cause that? And where did you also pull out of somewhere that increases in CO2 are caused by humans rather than the slight temperature increases causing the oceans to outgas CO2. That is what happens when ocean temps go up–they release CO2 and when the temps drop the oceans reabsorb that CO2. We are NOT deniers.

      Reply
      • Terry Shipman says:
        3 weeks ago

        You are quite right. Richard Greene rarely makes sense.

        Reply

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