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The EV Bubble Is About To Burst — Here’s Why

The economic and scientific case for EV mandates is collapsing.

by Sydney Rodman
March 30, 2026, 1:56 PM
in Electric Vehicles (EVs), Energy, Legal, Money & Finance, News and Opinion, Politics
Reading Time: 6 mins read
A A
4

ev market illust
When did getting from point A to point B get so complicated? When the government decided which cars Americans should buy. With the economic and scientific premises behind electric vehicle (EV) mandates collapsing, the EV bubble may burst completely. [some emphasis, links added]

There is one mandate left to burst: California’s Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II) regulation, which requires all new vehicles to be 100 percent electric by 2035, or else automakers get penalized.

With the federal repeal of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s Endangerment Finding in February, the government’s formal scientific basis for EV mandates is gone. State governments no longer have a rational scientific basis for requiring EV sales.

The concept of an EV mandate was first made formal policy by the Biden administration when it issued its de facto EV mandate in the form of a 2024 executive order, which changed EPA standards with the clear goal of forcing consumers to start buying EVs over gas-powered vehicles.

Though the Trump administration has reversed this policy at the federal level, nearly a dozen state governments have followed a coercive plan to extend EV mandates.

Yet, as I noted in RealClearEnergy, the reasoning behind EV mandates is extremely dubious. The federal government recently emphasized that carbon dioxide emissions, like those from gas-powered cars, should not be considered a pollutant at all.

Ironically, EVs don’t dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions due to the reliance on conventional hydrocarbons, like coal and natural gas, to power their batteries and charging stations.

In fact, the federal government had never ruled that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions were a pollutant until the 2009 politically-motivated determination known as the Endangerment Finding.

In 2003, the EPA rejected a petition for the agency to declare CO2 a pollutant under the Clean Air Act.

When the Obama administration’s EPA issued the Endangerment Finding, it made no effort to quantify the supposed harm of CO2 emissions; rejected every request by Americans to consider contrary evidence; and, puzzlingly, never consulted the EPA’s Scientific Advisory Board.

Fortunately, state EV mandates are not going unchallenged. With the help of Congress, President Donald Trump rescinded the California EV mandate in May 2025.

California and the other states doubled down, kicking off a legal battle with the Trump administration. In the ping-pong match of legal battles, the Trump administration sued California on March 12 over its violation of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975, which directs the federal government to establish uniform fuel economy standards nationwide.

Due to the political inconvenience of admitting that one’s policies are unwise, it may be unreasonable to expect states to reverse course. However, some already are.

In addition to Oregon and Vermont, Maryland has already walked back its EV mandates in the past year. Maryland’s governor has decided to delay imposing penalties on automakers who do not meet EV sale quotas and has paused other measures to penalize gas-powered cars.

Leading U.S. automaker executives are also reversing course.

GM’s luxury division, Cadillac, has admitted it cannot fulfill its pledge to shift to an all-EV fleet. In December 2025, GM CEO Mary Barra said that Biden-era vehicle regulations, if left in place, would have forced GM to “start shutting down plants.”

byd dealership
BYD’s cheap EVs are outpacing Western automakers — raising questions about who the mandate era really benefited.

Ford CEO James Farley, days later, revealed that U.S. automakers are “in a fight for our lives” in the global market, largely due to “aggressive carbon mandates.”

Farley, in particular, wasn’t kidding. Ford has taken tremendous losses in its EV initiatives. The auto giant has lost more than $16 billion on its EV ventures since 2022, and Ford’s financial pain is slated to keep coming for years.

Unfortunately, this situation is not unique to Ford. Other car companies are suffering losses. GM, Stellantis, and Honda have cumulatively sustained a nearly $30 billion loss from jumping into the EV abyss.

We don’t need to reinvent the wheel—and we don’t need to reinvent the engine. There is an opportunity for American EV companies to dominate the market, for example, by leveraging U.S. advances in critical minerals.

To require brand-new critical mineral supply chains for batteries inevitably creates inefficiencies. For now, though, gas-powered vehicles are the better option, and consumer behavior shows that.

It would be bad enough if Americans were just forced to buy certain kinds of cars and not others. Yet EVs themselves have real—even dangerous—drawbacks.

According to a 2024 study from Consumer Reports, EV models had 21 percent more defects than gas-powered vehicles.

Of course, if consumers want to buy EVs, that should be their prerogative. State governments mandating that Americans buy them, though, is the problem. And the impracticality of many EVs, in their current form, is partially why the free market has not spurred a consumer shift.

Read rest at Townhall

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Comments 4

  1. Richard Greene says:
    1 month ago

    “The federal government recently emphasized that carbon dioxide emissions, like those from gas-powered cars, should not be considered a pollutant at all.”

    false
    the 2022 inflation reduction act named CO2 as a pollutant and that act has not been repealed
    trump has chosen to ignore the 2022 inflation reduction act

    the low point for us ev sales was probably fourth quarter 2025

    bev sales outside of the us are still rising in 2026

    as of early 2026, Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) sales outside the United States are rising, though the global market has split into sharply contrasting regional trends. While the U.S. and China are experiencing slowdowns, Europe and emerging markets are currently driving global growth

    Reply
    • Steve Bunten says:
      1 month ago

      You think EVs outside the US are still rising because their governments are stupid enough to continue to subside these vehicles while here in the US the government finally said no more? I doubt you think that far.

      Reply
      • Davd Lewis says:
        1 month ago

        In Norway the sale of ICE vehicles is taxed where as the EV’s are subsidized. Comparing sales in nations with such practices to what is happing in the US is not valid.

        By the way, passing a law in 2022 does not make carbon dioxide a pollutant. This can only be done by honest scientific analysis.

        Reply
        • Richard Greene says:
          1 month ago

          the 2022 inflation reduction act gives the EPA
          permission to regulate CO2 emissions as a pollutant
          It doesn’t matter what scientists say

          scientists funded by governments tend to have nothing worthwhile to say about climate science because they seem to be into the CO2 does everything camp of fools

          just as bad are the trump funded scientists in the CO2 does nothing camp of fools

          Reply

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