A July 2026 Environmental Research Letters paper by Bellocchi et al. attributes ~80% of the rise in Earth’s absorbed solar radiation since 2000 to a decline in highly reflective cloud cover, largely due to circulation-driven contraction of storm-cloud zones. [some emphasis, links added]
The study highlights the climate’s “albedo governance,” suggesting that a 1% shift in Earth’s albedo corresponds to a 1°C change in surface temperature.
With more cloud cover, more solar radiation is reflected, and the surface cools. With declining cloud albedo observed since 1980, less solar radiation is reflected and the surface warms.
Natural atmospheric circulation modes and internal variability drive changes in cloud cover.
This is supported by reconstruction data showing cloud cover decline has occurred independently of “greenhouse-gas forcing” for centuries.
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