Data shows the Arctic more stable than media doomsayers portray it to be.
In the latter part of the latest Klimaschau video, Arctic mean temperature trends above 70°N are examined.
The first chart (8:38) goes back to 2000. Though the running 37-month average rose until 2006, it’s been steady ever since:
Over the last five years, the plot in fact shows some cooling off.
No real warming since the 1930s
Next, looking back long term, we examine the data going back 100 years:
The above chart from climate4you shows that the Arctic mean temperatures were almost as warm back in the 1930s and 40s as they are today.
Moreover, Arctic temperatures trended downward from 1930 to 1988, a time when manmade CO2 emissions were rising worldwide.
Next from 1990 to 2016, they rose. In the last few years, there’s been no increase. So what’s really happening?
Ocean cycles (stupid)
So why have Arctic temperatures not gone up continuously like they were supposed to do, according to CO2 global warming theory?
The answer of course is that there are obviously many other factors at play, some being much more powerful than trace gas CO2. For example, oceanic sea surface temperature cycles, here especially the AMO.
AMO likely the powerful driver
Next, we roughly superimpose a chart of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), one that also includes cyclone frequency:
As the above chart shows, when the AMO was in its warm phase from the 1930s to the 1950s, Arctic temps were warmer. The warm North Atlantic sea surface temperatures warmed the adjacent Arctic.
But then by the mid-1970s, the Atlantic sea surface had cooled, and the Arctic responded accordingly.
Next in the 1990s and 2000s, the Atlantic sea surface warmed strongly, and so did the Arctic. Arctic temperatures have little to do with atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
Cyclones respond to the AMO
Interestingly, tropical cyclone frequency also varied in sync with the AMO. During periods of a warm AMO phase, tropical cyclones were tended to be more frequent. And when the AMO was in its cool phase, cyclone frequency tamed down.
Unfortunately, activist scientists like to ignore the role of oceanic cycles on climate variability, and constantly fudge the numbers and cook the data to try to pin everything on man-made CO2.
The reality, however, is that things just aren’t that simple.
Read more at No Tricks Zone
Over the 42 year period Jan 1979 to Dec 2020 satellite surface temperature data show a strong warming trend. Pls see
https://wp.me/pTN8Y-65B
At short scale of time, there is a cyclic small variation of temperatures. Period is around 60 years. Reason is astronomic. Is is obvious if you observe at least two cycles, 120 years.
I have a stupid question. Say it takes a molecule of water 1,000 years to circumvent the globe in the thermohaline cycle…. does anyone know at what speed the heat of that some molecule transfers in relationship to its velocity? Obviously related to it’s heat versus the ambient heat I’d guess. My guess is it is basically 1,000 years as well?
Of course – if you start at the end of a cool period and continue for less than a complete cycle – 70-80 years – what do you expect?