Atlantic hurricane numbers fell sharply after 2005, the opposite of what alarmists had predicted.
When a few bad ones made landfall in 2017, rather than repeat their discredited claim of a scary increase, some alarmists claimed their so-called “translation speed” (their rate of crawling horizontally over land and ocean) would decrease, so each one that did make landfall would stay longer, dumping ever more water and being Worse Than Expected tm.
Alas, someone has checked the numbers and found no evidence that tropical cyclone translation speed has declined since the 1950s, that climate models don’t predict that it would and that on balance the speed isn’t likely to change much in the future either.
The model simulations of the next century, for what they’re worth, don’t say nothing will change. On average the authors expect global average translation speed will increase.
But they say it’s because there will be small offsetting changes between the tropics and the regions outside the tropics, so there could be a reduction in the speed depending on where you live.
To which we would say, c’est la vie but ce n’est pas conditions météorologiques extrêmes.
Despite which if you buy beachfront property in the path of Atlantic tropic storms, you should know by now what you’re in for: some hurricanes, of varying intensity, on an unpredictable schedule.
It doesn’t seem to be putting people off.
h/t GWPF
Read more at Climate Discussion Nexus
I can remember after Hurricanes Harvey and Irma some screwballs were blaming those who voted for Trump yeah these idiots are in the GAIA nonsense promoted by crack-pots like James Lovelock
And yet their liberal viewers were lapping up the rhetoric like thirsty dogs at a toilet. Information, data, and science won’t get through to the Alarmist crackpots.
Wtaf? First time I’ve see a denier prefer simulations(models) over observations… “Kossin5,6 (hereafter, K18) concluded, based on observational data (known as best-track data; see Data availability), that the translation speed of TCs has decreased globally by 10% between 1949 and 2016, possibly due to global warming. The magnitude of the slowdown varies from basin to basin, with the largest slowdown being in the western North Pacific basin. However, Moon et al.7 (hereafter, M19) cast doubts on K18’s conclusions, pointing out that such a slowdown trend arose mainly due to the lack of detection of weak and over-the-sea TCs, which have a relatively slow translation speed, in the pre-satellite era (1965 and before). Because it is impossible to reproduce the observational data during the pre-satellite era with the same quality as those in the post-satellite era, we propose to analyze results of numerical simulations for the current and future climates.”