President Donald Trump declared vindication Saturday night after the United Nations’ (UN) top climate panel quietly retreated from its most alarming long-term warming forecast. [some emphasis, links added]
Trump tore into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for backing away from a scenario known as RCP8.5 on Truth Social.
The pathway had projected warming of 4 to 5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
“GOOD RIDDANCE! After 15 years of Dumocrats promising that ‘Climate Change’ is going to destroy the Planet, the United Nations TOP Climate Committee just admitted that its own projections (RCP8.5) were WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!” the president wrote. He added that his administration would stay grounded in “TRUTH, SCIENCE, and FACT” rather than what he called a “GREEN NEW SCAM.”
IPCC researchers revised their modeling approach last month, swapping the extreme pathway for seven alternative scenarios, The New York Post reported.
The same outlet noted that EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin scrapped an Obama-era greenhouse gas rule in February, and pointed to the Glacier National Park signage that officials had to remove in 2020 after predicted ice melt failed to materialize.
The now-discarded scenario appeared in roughly 45,000 academic papers and had served as the backbone for forecasts of mass crop failure, rising seas, and even extinction-level outcomes, GB News reported.
The outlet pointed to the paper published in Geoscientific Model Development. Its authors wrote that the high-emission pathway had “become implausible, based on trends in the costs of renewables, the emergence of climate policy, and recent emission trends.
Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates broke with longtime climate orthodoxy in a memo released before the COP30 summit, CNN reported in October.
“Although climate change will have serious consequences – particularly for people in the poorest countries – it will not lead to humanity’s demise,” Gates wrote.
Top: Trump delivers remarks on energy at the Port of Corpus Christi, Texas. Official White House Photo by Molly Riley.
Read more at Daily Caller
Ah, Mr. Greene, one fact or effect totally ignored by most everybody, including Trenberth (his “missing heat”), is that the water cycle, which is taught to every school student, transports 85% or more of insolation energy from the surface and lower atmosphere to altitude where the heat is released through condensation (the heat of enthalpy) at altitude and lost to space.
Mr. Greene, CO2 by man is only 0.5% or less of atmospheric CO2, which has a ~5-year half-life (rather rapid turnover, in fact). So even if CO2 warming is only 50% of warming, our contribution is only 0.25% of warming—an undetectable and negligible effect.
But, wait, there is no greenhouse effect and there are no greenhouse gases. No gas at any concentration in the atmosphere can warm the climate, particularly by warming the surface. This is junk science cobbled up for Agenda 21 goals based on Arrhenius’s failed hypothesis in the 1890s. The alarmists tout it as proven science, but this is a clear reason that they will not debate real scientists.
The IPCC claims that the upper tropical troposphere is the source of the IR radiation that warms the surface. as this region of the atmosphere is -17 deg C and the surface is 15 deg C. It is clear that, as a cold object cannot warm a hot object, this cannot happen. Thermodynamics is not that complicated.
First, there is no greenhouse effect and there are no greenhouse gases. This is junk science cobbled up for Agenda 21 goals based on Arrhenius’s failed hypothesis in the 1890s. The alarmists tout it as proven science, but this is a clear reason that they will not debate real scientists.
Second, climate computer models ARE NOT SCIENCE. They are programmers’ wetdreams in which the programs does exactly what it is written to do. Any study or paper that mentions computer models is a joke and should be dismissed and ignored.
Third, with the +8.5 prediction gone, the alarmists are now claiming it is only gone (retired, dismissed) because their efforts have saved the planet from this possibility. Wow. It is like an arsonist pretending to be a firefighter and taking credit for putting out the fire he started. The difference is that the alarmists do nothing physical besides fomenting very bad policies that hurt people. Oh, wait, we have solar and wind farms and stupid, expensive carbon-capture projects, which are the least green energy sources in the world and a patent waste of time and money, and oil and gas restrictions that cripple the world. Yeah, alarmists are arsonist/firefighters.
the first IPCC report in 1990 had the best guess of +2.5° C warming by the year 2100
the IPCC report i 2021 had the best guess of +3.0° C warming by the year 2100
the next IPCC report in 2029 will probably still have a + 3.0 C degree warming for 2100
conservatives are so busy cheering they forgot to understand what actually happened
In 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) updated its modeling framework for the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). RCP 8.5 was updated and incorporated into a new scenario called SSP5-8.5.
the most extreme prediction of +4.5° C was moved down to +4.0° C
the smallest prediction of warming was moved up
… but the best guess was still +3.0° C
Highest Planned CMIP7 Growth Scenario for 2029
the High Emission Scenario (H),
capping expected 2100 global warming
at roughly +3.5°C above pre-industrial levels
why the worst case scenarios make more sense than all the others
concerning the increase of atmospheric CO2
they all assume net zero is not a success.
while all the other scenarios assume
net zero is a success and the CO2 levels of today
will never double
the IPCC blames up to 80% of global warming
on CO2, and that number is too high
no more than 50% is likely
the IPCC claims a possible large water vapor
positive feedback with no data to prove that
measurements of global average absolute humidity
are inaccurate — but they only represent
a modest water vapor positive feedback