A paper published today shows that attempts to blame extreme weather on human-caused global warming are “overconfident and probably wrong.”
The paper, by statistician and philosopher of science Dr. William M Briggs, reveals that mainstream attribution science is beset by flaws of reasoning, modeling, and data.
Dr. Briggs points out that most attribution claims are based around comparing simulations of the climate today to simulations of the climate as it might have been without human activity.
But as he explains, this approach has a fundamental problem:
“We simply have little or no idea what the climate would have been without human activity. Moreover, we can’t ever know what it was like.”
And Dr. Briggs also points out that even if we did know, it would still not be enough.
“In order to attribute individual weather events to humankind, scientists need a perfect model of the climate. They do not have this. Therefore, claims that we are responsible for any particular weather event are at best overconfident, if not plain wrong.”
Attribution studies assume that the weather has been getting worse, yet empirical observations do not support this generic assumption.
Dr. Brigg’s paper is entitled The Climate Blame Game: Are We Really Causing Extreme Weather?
Other than heat island affects, the only human-induced climate change I can detect are the local wind direction changes created by trash mountains (not to mention the odors too). These stunning achievements are popping up all over the world and will soon rival the great pyramids. Otherwise, here are some more false claims … https://newtube.app/user/RAOB/Z2odgVf
They blamed Hurricanes Katrina,Sandy,Harvey and Irma on Global Warming/Climate Change they have even blamed snowstorms on Global Warming/Climate Change(Crack-Pot James Hansen did)any type of weather these screwballs will blame it on Global Warming/Climate Change
We need more honest experts like Dr. Briggs. He’s stating the obvious, we don’t know because we can’t know. The others who speak with confidence on the subject are suspect.
Science denial ????
https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/10/science-denial/
If any of you readers/commenters are awake you know CC has nothing whatsoever to do with climate. In the past 50 years there has been little or zero change in our climate; therefore any program or change in fossil oil use is designed to enslave all free persons. We agreed with unleaded gas, auto pollution controls, coal burning power plant controls, et al. We agreed converting power plants to natural gas mainly provided via fracking. We agree with technology that cleanly and effeciently utilizes fossil fuel. After all this we realize that our acquisence to CC NUT JOBS will never be enough. You cannot compromise with believers in a radical, made-up religion designed to enslave everyone worldwide. GET A CLEAR VISION OF CLIMATE CHANGE RADICALS: you will be enslaved while the elite will be treated as royalty; YOU WILL NEVER ATTAIN ELITE STATUS, NEVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“In order to attribute individual weather events to humankind, scientists need a perfect model of the climate.”
Not really. Neo-Pagan piety will suffice.
And frequently does. So hug a tree and whisper to it that should it ever be blown down in a gale, it’s because some humans aren’t as perfect as tree-huggers. But mind you’re still not hugging it when it does come down…