A new paper published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation reveals that the shale revolution and the global shift from coal to gas has made the worst global warming scenario, known as RCP8.5, highly unlikely.
The paper, written by Tim Worstall, shows that the so-called RCP8.5 scenario assumes a huge expansion of global coal consumption in coming decades, ignoring the shift from coal to unconventional gas, the use of which is lowering CO2 emissions in most countries.
The ‘rising coal’ assumption on which the RCP8.5 climate model is based is implausible in the first place, but has now been shown to be false: the shift from coal to unconventional gas means that the world is on a much lower emissions trajectory than worst-case scenarios assume.
However, many climate scientists continue to use – or misuse – the RCP8.5 scenario, claiming that it represents a plausible future under “business as usual” CO2 emissions.
Every year, thousands of scientists adopt it to make scary claims about future climate disasters while environmental journalists report these misleading claims to an unsuspecting public, unaware that the claims are based on a non-credible assumption.
This week, for example, news media around the world were reporting that the Antarctic faced a “tipping point” with an “irreversible” loss of ice. Yet, this prediction, as so many others, is based on an RCP8.5 model that misuses a “coal business as usual” scenario.
GWPF is calling on responsible scientists and journalists to adopt a more credible and questioning approach to reporting claims that are based on non-credible energy scenarios.
Tim Worstall said:
“The idea that we would ignore shale gas, which is both cheaper and cleaner than coal, was always absurd. But with the impact and results of the shale revolution behind us, we now have the proof. It’s clear that we are never going to see the high coal emissions that RCP8.5 modelers predict.”
Dr. Benny Peiser, GWPF director, said:
“Scaremongering can do enormous harm to people and society. Scientists and journalists should stop using completely unrealistic energy scenarios that are simply not credible.”
A Saviour Spurned: How fracking saved us from global warming can be downloaded here (pdf)
Ending all uses of Fossil Fuels is foolish idea brought by Junk Science and Politics
RCP8.5 assumes a five fold increase in coal consumption which obviously wouldn’t happen even without the move to natural gas. I’m sure it also assumes a linear relationship between the concentration of carbon dioxide and its green house effect. The fact is there is a logarithm decline in green house impact as the concentration increases. Add this to the fact that other natural phenomenons that impact the Earth’s temperature overwhelm the CO2 contribution. If I remember correctly the authors of RCP8.5 never intended for it to be serious model. It was created to be an extreme outer limit in order to put other climate models thought to be more reliable into context. Yet, the reason RCP8.5 is so widely used and will continue to be used is it makes the best case for draconian action on climate change.