Climate Alarm Flames Out: Scientists Find Global Fires Have Sharply DECLINED Since 1910s

The purveyors of climate alarm posit that rising CO2 emissions cause up to 600% increases in the area burned area due to global warming.

Newly published science thoroughly undermines these claims.

Observational evidence affirms global-scale fire frequencies and burned area have actually been declining for decades (especially since the early 1900s), with overall biomass burning lower today than during the much colder Little Ice Age.

Bottom Graph Source: Ward et al., 2018

On a global scale, fire emissions/burned area peaked in the 1910s, but then plummeted to “about 5% below year 1700 levels by 2010” (Ward et al., 2018).

The decreasing trend in wildfires has continued unabated in the 21st century, as there has been “a strong statistically significant decline in 2001–2016 active fires globally” (Earl and Simmonds, 2018).

On a long-term scale, “global biomass burning during the past century has been lower than at any time in the past 2000 years” (Doerr and Santín, 2016).

Even in the Western United States, where wildfires are currently ravaging the landscape, there has been a “decline in burning over the past 3,000 y[ears], with the lowest levels attained during the 20th century and during the Little Ice Age (LIA, ca. 1400–1700 CE)” (Marlon et al., 2012).

The Perception Of Increasing Fire Occurrence Vs. The Observations Of Decreasing Trends

Doerr and Santín (2016) characterize the association between global warming and increases in wildfires as a “perception” spawned by using selective regional data and short timescales (in other words, by excluding contradictory evidence).  The alarming conclusions that wildfires are worsening due to rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions are then promulgated by mainstream media.

“Numerous reports, ranging from popular media through to peer-reviewed scientific literature, have led to a common perception that fires have increased or worsened in recent years around the world.

“Where these reports are accompanied by quantitative observations, they are often based on short timescales and regional data for fire incidence or area burned, which do not necessarily reflect broader temporal or spatial realities.”

To summarize, there are “widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses“, and yet “the quantitative evidence available does not support these perceived overall trends” (Doerr and Santín, 2016).

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