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New Report Finds Quadrupling CO2 Would Lead To Only 1.0°C Increase!

by Pierre Gosselin
3 years ago
in News and Opinion
Reading Time: 2 mins read
A A
2

earth space sun“No climate emergency,” scientists say… “increasing levels of CO2 won’t lead to significant changes in earth temperature”

Also: Increases in CH4 and N2O will have a very small, discernable impact.

A new publication in the International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences concludes that CO2 climate sensitivity has been excessively exaggerated by IPCC scientists.

A British and two German scientists collaborated for decades on the measurement of atmospheric gas concentrations using infrared absorption spectroscopy and so they are well acquainted with the absorptive properties of those gases and are familiar with the HITRAN gaseous spectra database.

In the publication, the authors first find it is surprising that there is a wide variation in the estimated warming potential of CO2, noting that estimates published by the IPCC for climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 concentration vary from 1.5 to 4.5°C.

Most warming comes from water vapor

In their study, the authors’ aim is to simplify the method reaching a figure for climate sensitivity not only for CO2, but also CH4 and N2O, and to do so by determining just how atmospheric absorption has resulted in the current 33°K warming and then extrapolating that result to calculate the expected warming due to future increases of greenhouse gas concentrations.

Chart: David Coe

Just 0.50°C warming from CO2 doubling

The authors conclude that H2O is responsible for 29.4°K of the 33°K warming, with CO2 contributing 3.3°K and CH4 and N2O combined just 0.3°K.

Climate sensitivity to future increases in CO2 concentration is calculated to be 0.50°K, including the positive feedback effects of H2O, while climate sensitivities to CH4 and N2O are almost undetectable at 0.06°K and 0.08°K respectively.

No “significant changes in Earth’s temperature”

This result, the authors say, strongly suggests that increasing levels of CO2 will not lead to significant changes in Earth’s temperature and that increases in CH4 and N2O will have a very little discernable impact.

Chart: David Coe

Of the 33°C warming, 29.4°C is entirely due to the absorptive effects of water vapor. 420 ppm of CO2 delivers just 3.3°C of that warming, while methane and nitrous oxide are responsible for a mere 0.3°C.

“No climate emergency”

Contrary to the blitz of propaganda, there is no climate emergency or even any significant increase in temperature due to increasing levels of CO2.

The climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 is 0.45°C which increases to 0.5°C when the 12% feedback of water vapor is taken into account.

A four-fold increase in CO2 concentrations to 1,600 ppm will increase temperatures by 1°C and it would take around 800 hundred years to reach that point at the current rate of CO2 level increases.

Read more at No Tricks Zone

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Comments 2

  1. T Rigby says:
    3 years ago

    It seems the insane rush for carbon neutral is a nonsense then.

  2. Spurwing Plover says:
    3 years ago

    Global Warming/Climate Change the biggist scam of the Century it all leads to a Global Government with the UN in charge and controling our lives from Cradle to Grave

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      • Climate change and its causes
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      • CO2 is not pollution
      • Deceptive Surface Temperature Records
      • Editorial: Great Global Warming Hoax
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 1
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      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 3
      • Why CO2 Is A Minor Player In Global Climate
      • Why Politicized Science Is So Dangerous
    • Facts Not Fear
      • A Simple Question For Climate Alarmists
      • Climate Change – The Facts
      • Climate Change Fears Are Empirically Baseless
      • Global Warming 101
      • Global Warming Q&A
      • Understanding The Medieval Warm Period
      • Ocean Cycles and Climate
      • Overview of Plate Climatology Theory
      • Precautionary Principle
      • Should We Celebrate Carbon Dioxide?
      • The Skeptics Handbook
      • Weather Versus Climate
      • Why I’m a GW skeptic
      • Winning the climate debate with facts
      • Why Aliens Cause Global Warming
    • Greenhouse FAQs
      • CO2, Plants, & Industry
      • How much have temps changed?
      • How much have temps changed?
      • How much have temps changed?
      • Is global warming real?
      • Measuring temperature
      • Swimming in CO2?
      • Scientists urge caution?
      • Today’s warming trend
      • Variations in temperature
    • Gore’s Greatest Goofs
      • Deconstructing the Truth
      • Fact-Checking Al Gore’s Latest Predictions
      • How Gore Created The Global Warming Hoax
    • Inside Real Climate
      • Closer look at the 97% Consensus
      • GW’s Amazing Story
      • IPCC gets failing grade
      • Real Climate Exposed!
      • Truth about Real Climate
      • We’ve Been Conned
      • What is there a 97% consensus about?
    • Behind the IPCC
      • 1,000 Scientists Dissent
      • Climategate: Caught Green-Handed!
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      • NIPCC Report Now Available
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