A number of mainstream media outlets have uncritically echoed the proclamation of 2024 being the “hottest year on record,” such as CNN with a story titled, “2024 Confirmed as World’s Hottest Year on Record”, and the BBC running a headline that declared, “2024 Confirmed as Hottest Year Ever Recorded.” [emphasis, links added]
When these media reports are examined in the long-term historical context of the available global temperature data, it becomes clear that the claims lack the certainty their headlines proclaim and are likely false or exaggerated.
A close examination reveals that such declarations are predominantly based on data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCCS), a European organization but only one of several global temperature monitoring systems.
Their press release, 2024 – a second record-breaking year, following the exceptional 2023 became immediately reused by media outlets around the world.
The CCCS says:
- 2024 was the warmest year in a multi-dataset record of global temperature going back to 1850.
- 2024 had a global average temperature of 15.10°C; 0.12°C higher than the previous highest annual value in 2023.
- 2024 was 0.72°C warmer than the 1991–2020 average, and 1.60°C warmer than the pre-industrial level, making it the first calendar year to exceed 1.5 above that level
But, those numbers differ from those of other sources, such as a dataset from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
NOAA reports:
“The year 2024 was the warmest since global records began in 1850 at 1.29°C (2.32°F) above the 20th-century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F). This value is 0.10°C (0.18°F) more than the previous record set last year. The ten warmest years in the 175-year record have all occurred during the last decade (2015–2024).”
While NOAA repeats the “hottest year on record” claim, their numbers differ from Copernicus, undermining any confidence one might have in the precision of the global average temperature measurements for 2024, and any record-breaking claims flowing from their disparate data measurements.
Further, these claims completely ignore the evidence-based research, such as the surface stations project conducted by The Heartland Institute, showing that the Urban Heat Island effect and the poor placement of temperature stations used to measure temperatures, from which long-term temperature data is gathered, may account for as much as 50 percent of recent warming, with the remainder likely being partly or wholly natural, such as being driven by El Niño events.
It’s also worth noting that the phrase “hottest year on record” typically refers to records spanning about 150 years—a mere blink in geological time. Paleoclimatological evidence shows that Earth has experienced periods with significantly hotter temperatures long before the Industrial Revolution.
For instance, during the Eemian interglacial period around 120,000 years ago, global temperatures were comparable to or even exceeded current levels.
See the graph below from a scientific study titled, “A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature.”
How quickly they forget: Media Confirms the Earth Is Not Abnormally Warm, Rather It Is in Its Coldest Period in 485 Million Years.
Proxy data also suggests temperatures in more recent periods like the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Climate Optimum were likely comparable to or even higher than they are today, despite carbon dioxide levels being significantly lower.
In the rush to blame climate change for 2024’s temperatures, the media also underappreciates the impact of natural climate phenomena such as El Niño on temperatures in 2023 and 2024. This creates an oversimplified narrative that ignores the complexities of climate systems.
The El Niño event in of 2023-2024 has been a major contributor to the recent global temperature anomalies, with many reports stating that it significantly boosted global temperatures compared to a neutral ocean pattern state, making 2024 one of the hottest years on record; this is due to the warming ocean surface temperatures associated with El Niño adding to the overall heat in the climate system.
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, following the conclusion of the 2023–2024 El Niño event there has been a notable decline in ocean temperatures. This cooling trend is particularly evident in the eastern and central tropical Pacific regions.
NOAA reported that by December 2024, La Niña conditions had emerged, characterized by below-average sea surface temperatures across these areas.
Oceans are considered the biggest influence on atmospheric temperature as they absorb the majority of the sun’s radiation, acting as a massive heat reservoir that regulates global climate by storing and distributing heat around the planet through ocean currents; this means that changes in ocean temperature significantly affect the overall atmospheric temperature.
Therefore, with cooling oceans, it stands to reason that cooler global atmospheric temperatures are likely ahead for 2025.
In summary, while global temperatures have gradually risen in recent decades, it is unclear whether portraying 2024 as unequivocally the “hottest year on record” is justified, or whether it is a temporary anomaly reflecting, in part, a combination of natural conditions and human measurement error.
What is clear is that regardless of the global average temperature, human welfare has never been better.
According to Our World in Data, average life expectancy has more than doubled during the recent warming. Further, deaths from extreme weather are markedly down, and deaths tied to temperatures have declined because cold kills more people than warmth.
CNN and BBC do a great disservice to their audiences by not placing their claims in the broader historical context of long-term temperatures and data, and by downplaying or ignoring entirely natural weather phenomena and problematic temperature measurement conditions that impact temperature measurements when asserting that temperatures are the highest on record.
An approach that considers the full range of scientific data, historical context, and natural variability would provide a more accurate and less alarming understanding of our planet’s climate dynamics.
Unfortunately, as Climate Realism has repeatedly demonstrated, the media seems more interested in pushing a climate doom narrative than factually reporting the complex truth about climate.
Read more at Climate Realism
I like to ask a simple question to the global warming & anti-CO2 Lobby. Total CO2 in atmosphere is 0:04%, human produced CO2 is approx 4% of that total, therefore why doesn’t the remaining 96% of natural CO2 also come into discussion on AGW ?
This is a rare nothingburger article by Watts.
2024 is the warmest year in the post-1970s average temperature data. Every compilation says that. So what? The numbers do not explain exactly what caused the warmest year, but CO2 emissions are one of many causes. That is not controversial.
4% of CO2 is manmade is silly science (nonsense)
The correct percentage is 33%
Termites burp more CO2 than smokestacks and tail pipes.
I like to ask a simple question to the global warming & anti-CO2 Lobby. Total CO2 in atmosphere is 0:04%, human produced CO2 is approx 4% of that total, therefore why doesn’t the remaining 96% of natural CO2 also come into discussion on AGW ?
I thought the Hot Year was ten years ago in 2014 and a bunch of Useful Idiots the Peoples Climate March who then left a big mess behind them just like they did at Standing Rock