Actual Honolulu Tide Gauge Data Undercuts Disastrous Sea Level Rise Claims

Oceanographic Magazine (OM) recently published the article “Most Hawaiians are already feeling the affects [sic] of sea level rise” by Eva Cahill on February 17, 2026, asserting that Hawaii residents are already experiencing the impacts of rising seas and that it is accelerating. [some emphasis, links added]

This framing is false, unsupported by local data.

The actual long-term measurement record at Honolulu shows that sea levels are rising at less than half the rate that OM claims.

“Over the past three decades, the rate of global sea level rise has doubled, with the best estimate of the rate of global-average rise over the last decade being 3.6 millimeters per year,” the article states, continuing: “83% believe that the impacts of sea level rise will be catastrophic within the next 50 years.”

These claims are debunked by actual data, and thus the people’s fears of catastrophe are unwarranted.

As the graph below shows, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) long-running Honolulu tide gauge record, the rate of sea level rise there has not measurably increased during the recent period of modest warming, and is far below, less than half in fact, of the 3.6 mm rate of rise in the last decade claimed by OM.

Local relative sea level, measured by tide gauges, is the only real direct measurement of sea level rise, and it is what determines flooding risk on Oʻahu. Satellite measurements from space are a calculation based on a model. Thus, it is an indirect measurement.

This distinction matters because sea level does not “operate” uniformly at the state level. Local trends reflect regional ocean dynamics, vertical land motion, and multi-decadal variability.

NOAA’s tide gauge station description for Honolulu notes that interannual and decadal fluctuations are influenced by factors such as ENSO and broader Pacific circulation patterns.

Short-term peaks during strong El Niño events can create the impression of sudden jumps, but the century-scale record smooths those oscillations and shows a far more modest rise.

That rise measured by the Honolulu tide gauge is not trivial, and it requires sensible coastal planning. But it is not the kind of rapid rise implied when a global satellite-era average is presented as if it defines local reality.

The 3.6 mm/year figure cited by OM refers to a recent global-average estimate derived primarily from satellite altimetry, not a site-specific measurement.

Further, a recently published peer-reviewed paper suggests that the satellite data has serious errors in it, saying:

Statistical tests were run on all selected datasets, taking the acceleration of sea level rise as a hypothesis.

In both datasets, approximately 95% of the suitable locations show no statistically significant acceleration of the rate of sea level rise.

OM also leans heavily on public perception, citing survey results about “catastrophic” expectations. But beliefs are not measurements; what determines long-term shoreline change is not a survey but sediment budgets, reef health, storm patterns, and vertical land motion.

That is why it is important to consider the growing body of research on island dynamics, summarized in my colleague H. Sterling Burnett’s article “Rising Seas Aren’t Swamping Small Island Nations,” which discusses peer-reviewed findings that many reef islands and atolls have remained stable or increased in area over recent decades due to sediment transport and reef-driven processes.

The article notes that islands are dynamic landforms, shaped continuously by waves and currents, not static platforms waiting to drown.

Climate at a Glance’s “Islands and Sea Level Rise” also highlights studies showing that numerous Pacific Islands have maintained or expanded their land area even as global sea level has risen.

That does not mean every shoreline is stable, but it does mean the simplistic narrative that rising seas automatically translate into uniform land loss is not supported by the empirical record.

Concerning Hawai’i in particular, volcanic activity has increased the size of the main island, adding height, mass, and acreage. From January 1983 to September 2002, lava flows added 543 acres to the island.

An additional 875 acres were added from May to July 2018 alone as a result of lava flow from the 2018 lower Puna eruption. In short, Hawai’i is increasing in size even in the face of modest sea level rise – as is true for other islands as well.

None of these facts argues against prudent adaptation. Limiting development in flood-prone areas, improving building standards, and preserving natural buffers are common-sense policies regardless of whether the rise is 1.5 mm/year or 3.6 mm/year.

But presenting a global satellite number as if it accurately describes Hawaii’s observed coastal trend is misleading in the extreme.

Oceanographic Magazine conflates global statistics, public anxiety, and local coastal management into a single storyline of impending doom. The actual sea level measurements at Honolulu report relatively slow sea level rise. That is not climate reporting grounded in observation; it is advocacy framed as inevitability.

Read more at Climate Realism