In May, the “experts” at NOAA predicted the likeliest scenario for the upcoming hurricane season would be a “near-normal” one [emphasis, links added]:
NOAA’s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season, and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.
‘With a changing climate, the data and expertise NOAA provides to emergency managers and partners to support decision-making before, during, and after a hurricane has never been more crucial,’ said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D.
So essentially, these brilliant scientists are predicting that during “hurricane season” there are likely going to be hurricanes, in some capacity. Does it take experts to predict that?
Furthermore, near-normal is also indicative of man-made climate change.
Why don’t they always predict a severe season if humans, CO2, and our use of natural resources are a compounding and existential threat to the Earth?
By August, they upped their predictions because of warm weather:
NOAA forecasters have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (increased from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 30% chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has decreased to 25%, down from the 40% chances outlined in May’s outlook. This new update gives the Atlantic a 15% chance of seeing a below-normal season.
Somehow, those dire forecasts didn’t come true even though they made them in the middle of the hurricane season.
A whopping three hurricanes hit land in the U.S. I thought the warm water and weather were going to lead to a disastrous year?
The forecasters blamed “tricky” weather conditions that made storms hard to predict this year; don’t we always have “tricky” weather conditions because of all the natural variables?
Furthermore, a majority of storms during hurricane season never even hit land this year:
Overall, through Nov. 7, there were 21 Tropical Depressions, 20 storms (19 of them were given names), seven hurricanes (including three majors), and 12 tropical storms.
Only eight storms made landfall, with only Harold, Idalia, and Ophelia making landfall in the U.S.
Most storms this year were [called] “fish storms” because they posed no risk to land.
Louisiana has been in a severe drought this year because [all those serious storms that were predicted because of the Gulf’s warm waters] didn’t materialize.
The scientific community only started naming storms with sustained winds over 39 mph in 1979, and it is pretty hard to believe claims that storms are getting worse and more frequent when that history only goes back 44 years.
From a Florida outlet:
Hurricanes are such a normal part of the tropics season that it can be easy to forget that the modern convention of naming hurricanes started not long ago.
The National Hurricane Center began using a naming system to designate storms with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or more in the Atlantic Ocean in 1979.
How could anyone possibly claim that humans and our use of natural resources cause more storms when we have only been counting the same way for 44 years and that counting started after a cooling period?
They also started calculating the heat index in 1979, again right after a 35-year global cooling period. Somehow people figured out how to survive higher humidity when all they knew was the temperature.
Places that have droughts would love more humidity. The heat index is fear porn, used to make people think it is hotter than it is and make them cave to the radical green agenda.
Why would we trust predictions a hundred years out when the so-called experts have so much difficulty predicting the climate in a current year due to natural variables? They can’t even get it right in the middle of the weather season!
Why would we destroy the oil, natural gas, and coal industries, which have greatly improved our quality of life, based on the outputs of computer programs that have always been so wrong?
Why would anyone believe that switching from gas to electric vehicles would have any effect on temperatures when there are so many natural variables?
Why would anyone believe a “near-normal” hurricane season is evidence of an existential environmental threat?
Read more at American Thinker
The alarmists use predictions to generate fear, just in case a mild year like 2023 comes along. They changed their narrative late this year when they declared that tropical storms were exploding into category 5 hurricanes quicker than ever!”turbocharged”! . Nothing new, really. Shallow waters are warmer.
I tracked the storms this “hurricane season” and watched the majority of them turned north before ever reaching the islands of the Caribbean or the US. Wonder why that happened?
El Nino, I believe.
If El Nino was the proximate cause for the storms to head north instead of continue west as is more typical then why didn’t the “scientists” at NOAA not take that into consideration in their predictions? Oh wait, they were just looking for “panic” headlines and expecting nobody to look at their disastrous predictions.
Also of interest is how there were no storms that formed in the Caribbean or the Gulf, something that is fairly typical.
Thanks to Google, many believe that climate change causes and amplifies El Nino. Admitting that El Nino is caused by Pacific Ocean plate tectonics and is strong enough to deflect Atlantic hurricanes (thousands of miles away!) would undermine their false narrative that carbon dioxide is Satan. The Earth has checks and balances.
So when some fool claims Kids will never know what snow was and it snows they should apologize for their irresponsible statement
I remember reading an article that predicted five category five hurricanes a year. As the NOAA “scientists” show, their mission is still to spread alarm.