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New Study Finds Warming Saves Lives, Cold 12X More Deadly Than Heat

A half-degree of warming could prevent thousands of U.S. cold-related deaths each year.

by Kenneth Richard
April 01, 2026, 9:37 AM
in Extreme Weather, Health, News and Opinion, Science
Reading Time: 2 mins read
A A
8

sun warmth health
Because cold temperatures are so much more dangerous to human health than warmth, a modest 0.5°C warming could save over 10,000 lives per year in the US. [some emphasis, links added]

A new study indicates that from 2000 to 2020, there were 6,129 annual deaths attributable to excess summer heat across 1,514 US counties (representing 91% of the United States’ adult population).

Heat-related deaths receive the vast majority of media attention based on the assumption that humans can control ocean temperatures and surface air by emitting more or less carbon dioxide (CO2).

However, the real health risk – even in wealthy countries like the US – is not “global warming,” but exposure to cold temperatures in winter.

This same study reveals there were 72,361 deaths per year attributable to exposure to 21st-century cold temperatures in the US.

In other words, cold winter temperatures are associated with 12 times more deaths (40.1 deaths per 100,000 person-years) compared to deaths caused by excessive heat (3.4 deaths per 100,000 person-years).

Because the US has continued to have “extreme winter events” in the 21st century and “unusually cold winter snaps” in the South, “cold-related deaths in the US have increased by 9% per year over the past two decades.”

Non-optimal temperature-related deaths have been increasing, with cold, non-optimal temperatures far more deadly.

Image Source: de Oliveira Salerno et al., 2026

Interestingly, a Google AI search using data from this study and a hypothetical 0.5°C increase in mean annual US temperature confirms that this modest warming could potentially save “several thousand to over 10,000 lives” per year.

Image Source: AI via Google

Read more at No Tricks Zone

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Comments 8

  1. Richard Greene says:
    4 months ago

    in reality very few deaths are caused by
    extremely hot weather or extremely cold weather

    the truth here is manipulated
    by claiming that heart attacks,
    which most often occur during the winter,
    are caused by the cold weather
    rather than by heart disease

    slightly warmer winters from CO2 emissions
    should slightly extend the life of heart patients
    but will not prevent their deaths
    from heart attacks in the future

    there is no way to measure
    the effects of warmer winters
    on heart patients because of
    confounding variables such as
    increasing trends of overweight people
    and people getting less exercise

    warmer winters are a minor benefit of CO2 emissions
    for heart patients, but grossly exaggerated by most writers

    Reply
    • Davd Lewis says:
      4 months ago

      A measurement exists to show one of the differences in deaths due to cold. The death rate among the elderly was lower in the winter in the UK before the green agenda made heating home to optimum temperatures unaffordable to many. It is true that many of the people who die would probably do so anyway given more time. However, if not being able to adequately heat their homes causes deaths sooner, that is extremely important. Shortening someone’s life by months or a few years is nothing to sluff off.

      Reply
      • Richard Greene says:
        4 months ago

        that UK problem is real and i have read about it
        but it has nothing to do with CO22 warming causing
        slightly warmer winters that should benefit heart patients

        i recommend many articles about UK energy policy
        on my climate and energy website.
        but the consistent policy mistakes
        of miliband have become depressing.

        I check out News Round-Up
        at The Daily Sceptic every day
        to find good climate and energy articles.
        skimming the titles of the other articles
        tells me what’s going on in the UK
        and it’s unbelievable

        Reply
    • Steve Bunten says:
      4 months ago

      Very callous comment there Greene. So, someone with heart disease is likely going to die from a heat attack at some point so if they die earlier due to cold is no big deal. As David Lewis wrote in reply to your comment that many older people in the UK are dying at higher rates due to cost of maintaining a warm enough home. And that’s caused due to the misguided movement by the government to shutdown less expensive coal plants while deploying intermittent, more expensive wind and solar.

      Reply
      • Richard Greene says:
        4 months ago

        pretending that a slightly warmer winter
        will save a lot of lives is ridiculous

        the claim that if you die in the winter
        from a heart attack
        it’s caused by the climate?

        but if you die from a heart attack
        any other time of the year,
        it’s caused by heart disease?

        reminds me of the climate nutters saying
        that bad weather is climate change
        but good weather is just weather

        Reply
        • Steve Bunten says:
          4 months ago

          Who said that a slightly warmer winter would save more lives. You are either an ignorant fool or a liar (or perhaps both). Cold kills more than heat. But the way to reduce deaths due to the cold is to have plentiful energy to allow heating in homes. Prior to use of fossil fuels to allow for low-cost heating many died each winter. It has been reduced but due to the ignorance of the “elite” who are destroying low-cost heating the deaths in countries like the UK are going up since the elderly on fixed income can’t afford to properly heat their homes.

          Reply
        • Davd Lewis says:
          4 months ago

          The subject matter is the increase in deaths caused by temperature. You acknowledged this your self in 2022 in your comment to a No Tricks Zone article, “Cardiac patients didn’t need a study to know the danger of cold weather. In the US, some of them move to warmer states after they retire to avoid cold weather dangers.”

          The main problem is in door temperatures. The year in 2017 was mild in the UK. Yet, there were a remarkable 40% rise in winter deaths, which was a rise from the normal 25,000 to 34,000 people. That same year a dual energy tax was implemented making it less affordable to heat home to optimum temperatures.

          One study showed that influenza viruses spread more easily at colder temperature. One means our body maintains temperature is by constricting capillaries reducing the flow of blood to the skin and in doing so reduces heat loss. However, this capillary constriction also increases blood pressure.

          Despite our body’s measures to conserve heat our core temperature falls slightly at low ambient temperatures. Our immune system is hyper sensitive to body temperature. I experienced this when I dumped a canoe while on a cold lake. A few days later I was hospitalize with pneumonia

          There is no doubt that more people are dying because the climate change movement has made it impossible for some to heat their homes to optimum temperature. This means the climate change movement is in very real terms killing people.

          Reply
          • Steve Bunten says:
            4 months ago

            I hope you are not going to expect a response, or at least an intelligent one that addresses your points. He can’t do it but if he does respond he won’t address the points but will deflect to nonquitters.

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