• Privacy Policy
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
Climate Change Dispatch
  • Home
  • Videos
  • Who We Are
  • Facts Vs. Fearmongering
    • Real science vs Junk Science
      • 1100-plus Peer-Reviewed Studies
      • 97% – Myth of the Climate Change Consensus
      • Michael Crichton: Aliens Cause Global Warming
      • Climate change and its causes
      • Climate Science Primer
      • CO2 is not pollution
      • Deceptive Surface Temperature Records
      • Editorial: Great Global Warming Hoax
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 1
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 2
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 3
      • Why CO2 Is A Minor Player In Global Climate
      • Why Politicized Science Is So Dangerous
    • Facts Not Fear
      • A Simple Question For Climate Alarmists
      • Climate Change – The Facts
      • Climate Change Fears Are Empirically Baseless
      • Global Warming 101
      • Global Warming Q&A
      • Understanding The Medieval Warm Period
      • Ocean Cycles and Climate
      • Overview of Plate Climatology Theory
      • Precautionary Principle
      • Should We Celebrate Carbon Dioxide?
      • The Skeptics Handbook
      • Weather Versus Climate
      • Why I’m a GW skeptic
      • Winning the climate debate with facts
      • Why Aliens Cause Global Warming
    • Greenhouse FAQs
      • CO2, Plants, & Industry
      • How much have temps changed?
      • How much have temps changed?
      • How much have temps changed?
      • Is global warming real?
      • Measuring temperature
      • Swimming in CO2?
      • Scientists urge caution?
      • Today’s warming trend
      • Variations in temperature
    • Gore’s Greatest Goofs
      • Deconstructing the Truth
      • Fact-Checking Al Gore’s Latest Predictions
      • How Gore Created The Global Warming Hoax
    • Inside Real Climate
      • Closer look at the 97% Consensus
      • GW’s Amazing Story
      • IPCC gets failing grade
      • Real Climate Exposed!
      • Truth about Real Climate
      • We’ve Been Conned
      • What is there a 97% consensus about?
    • Behind the IPCC
      • 1,000 Scientists Dissent
      • Climategate: Caught Green-Handed!
      • Climategate Inquiries
      • Climategate Inquiries 2
      • NIPCC Report Now Available
      • Understanding the Climategate Inquiries
  • Submissions
  • Contact Us
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Videos
  • Who We Are
  • Facts Vs. Fearmongering
    • Real science vs Junk Science
      • 1100-plus Peer-Reviewed Studies
      • 97% – Myth of the Climate Change Consensus
      • Michael Crichton: Aliens Cause Global Warming
      • Climate change and its causes
      • Climate Science Primer
      • CO2 is not pollution
      • Deceptive Surface Temperature Records
      • Editorial: Great Global Warming Hoax
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 1
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 2
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 3
      • Why CO2 Is A Minor Player In Global Climate
      • Why Politicized Science Is So Dangerous
    • Facts Not Fear
      • A Simple Question For Climate Alarmists
      • Climate Change – The Facts
      • Climate Change Fears Are Empirically Baseless
      • Global Warming 101
      • Global Warming Q&A
      • Understanding The Medieval Warm Period
      • Ocean Cycles and Climate
      • Overview of Plate Climatology Theory
      • Precautionary Principle
      • Should We Celebrate Carbon Dioxide?
      • The Skeptics Handbook
      • Weather Versus Climate
      • Why I’m a GW skeptic
      • Winning the climate debate with facts
      • Why Aliens Cause Global Warming
    • Greenhouse FAQs
      • CO2, Plants, & Industry
      • How much have temps changed?
      • How much have temps changed?
      • How much have temps changed?
      • Is global warming real?
      • Measuring temperature
      • Swimming in CO2?
      • Scientists urge caution?
      • Today’s warming trend
      • Variations in temperature
    • Gore’s Greatest Goofs
      • Deconstructing the Truth
      • Fact-Checking Al Gore’s Latest Predictions
      • How Gore Created The Global Warming Hoax
    • Inside Real Climate
      • Closer look at the 97% Consensus
      • GW’s Amazing Story
      • IPCC gets failing grade
      • Real Climate Exposed!
      • Truth about Real Climate
      • We’ve Been Conned
      • What is there a 97% consensus about?
    • Behind the IPCC
      • 1,000 Scientists Dissent
      • Climategate: Caught Green-Handed!
      • Climategate Inquiries
      • Climategate Inquiries 2
      • NIPCC Report Now Available
      • Understanding the Climategate Inquiries
  • Submissions
  • Contact Us
No Result
View All Result
Climate Change Dispatch
No Result
View All Result

The Urban Heat Island Effect Behind Large Spurious Warming In GHCN Temp Dataset

by Roy Spencer, Ph.D.
July 17, 2023, 10:23 AM
in News and Opinion
Reading Time: 4 mins read
A A
1
Share on FacebookShare on XwitterShare on Linkedin

city sun hot baked earthIt has been a while since I have posted progress on our DOE-funded research into the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in the GHCN [Global Historical Climatology Network] station temperatures used to monitor land-based global warming.

It should be remembered that everything I post on this subject is (as is usually the case) a work in progress. [emphasis, links added]

The bottom line is that there are substantial UHI-based trend (warming) effects in the GHCN station temperatures; the only question is, how much have they affected temperature trends?

Most previously published research on the subject has suggested the effects are small (Hausfather et al., 2013; Wickham et al., 2013; Hansen et al., 2010; Parker, 2010; Jones et al., 2008; Parker, 2006; Peterson & Owen, 2005; Peterson, 2003; Peterson et al., 1999; Gallo et al., 1999; Karl et al., 1988).

As a result, you will find most who defend the “climate crisis” narrative will refer to one or more of those studies as showing the “science is settled”, and that GHCN-based land warming estimates are largely free of UHI warming effects.

I have argued that those studies involved methodologies that were not very good. Identifying the UHI effect is difficult.

I’ve come up with a novel way of quantifying the average UHI effect, even at stations that would be considered “rural” with presumably no UHI effect.

We have a paper in review at Nature Scientific Reports describing the methodology (my blog description of the methodology is here), but I have no idea what chance it has of being published.

I will get right to the results as they stand today. What I show below are for the all-station average of GHCN stations; they are NOT area averages, which are what is needed for climate monitoring.

They just show how much the average GHCN station is influenced by spurious UHI warming.

The stations cover the latitude bands from 20N to 80N but are dominated by U.S. stations (about 80% of the total) due to the huge number of stations we have in this country.

The plots are for four classes of initial GHCN station population density (the first year those stations started operating) during the warm season (May/June/July), and give the cumulative year-on-year temperature increase averaged across all stations in each of the four initial station population classes.

The adjusted (homogenized) GHCN station temperature changes are in green, and my calculated UHI effect is in red.

For the “wilderness to very rural” class (upper-left panel), the UHI effect on temperature trends turns out to be quite small, contrary to what I have recently argued.

Since many of these low-population stations are at high northern latitudes, this would suggest that the UHI effects on the large warming trends reported there are small.

But as we progress to higher population stations, we find that the UHI warming effect becomes larger.

In the highest population density class (“suburban to urban”, lower-right panel) my calculation of UHI warming is virtually the entire GHCN-reported warming signal since 1880, but only a small part of the reported warming since 1980.

If these results stand, what will they mean for reported land warming trends?

I’m guessing that the UHI effect on area-average trends since 1980 (the period of the most rapid temperature rise) will turn out to be relatively small.

But before 1980, it looks like the UHI effect on GHCN temperatures could be substantial.

This would change the nature of the global warming narrative, with little land-based warming for the first 100 years starting in 1880.

What could change these results? First, I do not account for increases in the UHI effect due to per-capita increases in infrastructure and energy use (buildings, vehicles, parking lots, electricity use, and resulting waste heat).

I assume the UHI effect is only a function of population density (partly because we have global gridpoint data on population extending back into the 1800s).

Thus, my UHI warming estimates might be a little low for stations where the population stopped growing but spurious sources of heat continued to increase, such as in Vienna, Austria (R. Bãhm, Climatic Change, 1998).

In any event, I feel like I am finally converging on useful results.

One aspect of this is that the record-high temperatures now being reported in major population centers in the southwest U.S. and southern Europe need to be revisited based upon the very large urban heat island temperature increases seen in the lower-right panel of the above plot at suburban-to-urban stations.

Read more at Dr. Roy’s Blog

  • Truth
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • Gettr
  • Threads
  • gab-logo Gab
  • Mastodon
  • Buffer
  • Telegram
  • Email
  • Copy Link
  • Share Using More Networks…
Share via
  • Facebook
  • Like
  • Twitter
  • Pinterest
  • LinkedIn
  • Digg
  • Tumblr
  • VKontakte
  • Print
  • Email
  • Reddit
  • Buffer
  • Love This
  • Weibo
  • Pocket
  • Xing
  • Odnoklassniki
  • WhatsApp
  • Meneame
  • Blogger
  • Amazon
  • Yahoo Mail
  • Gmail
  • AOL
  • Newsvine
  • HackerNews
  • Evernote
  • MySpace
  • Mail.ru
  • Viadeo
  • Line
  • Flipboard
  • Comments
  • SMS
  • Viber
  • Telegram
  • Subscribe
  • Skype
  • Facebook Messenger
  • Kakao
  • LiveJournal
  • Yammer
  • Edgar
  • Fintel
  • Mix
  • Instapaper
  • Copy Link
  • Truth
  • gab-logo Gab
  • Gettr
  • Baidu
  • Mastodon
  • Threads
  • Bluesky

Join our list

Subscribe to our mailing list and get interesting stuff and updates to your email inbox.

Thank you for subscribing.

Something went wrong.

We respect your privacy and take protecting it seriously

Related Posts

Extreme Weather

Debunking The Weather Attribution Theater Playbook

May 15, 2025
Extreme Weather

Exposed: The Global Warming Graph That Duped The World

May 15, 2025
Energy

Trump Dismantles Biden’s Climate Legacy While New York Chases Green Delusions

May 14, 2025

Comments 1

  1. The Monster says:
    2 years ago

    There’s a particularly nasty effect of UHI that comes into play when the people running the surface stations realize that urbanization has taken what was once a suburban or rural station into the heat island. They then set up a new station further out from the urban core, run both in parallel for a while and determine the average delta between them attributable to UHI, then subtract that from the historical record of the old station and treat this adjusted-downward history as if it were the history of the new station. A few decades later, the new station’s neighborhood is urbanized, and they repeat the relocation, again adjusting history downward. This creates a warming trend out of thin air.

Stay Connected On Social Media

gab-logo

Donate Today

Beating back the alarmist narrative takes time and money. Please donate today to help!

Recent Posts

  • mississippi floodingDebunking The Weather Attribution Theater Playbook
    May 15, 2025
    The media exaggerates climate change flooding in the Mississippi Valley, ignoring peer-reviewed science for so-called attribution science. […]
  • the climate change graph that liedExposed: The Global Warming Graph That Duped The World
    May 15, 2025
    This viral video exposes the truth behind the iconic climate change graph used to justify extreme policies and global warming panic. […]
  • gov kathy hochulTrump Dismantles Biden’s Climate Legacy While New York Chases Green Delusions
    May 14, 2025
    As Trump unravels Biden’s costly climate agenda, New York doubles down on its net zero fantasy despite no federal backing and no workable plan. […]
  • Hurricane WindsThe Media Hype Extreme Weather—But Data Tells A Different Tale
    May 14, 2025
    Despite rising alarm over extreme weather, Americans are safer than ever from natural disasters thanks to better forecasting, buildings, and tech. […]
  • gavel earth money courtTrial Lawyers To Swamp Louisiana Energy Sector With Climate Lawfare After Chevron Verdict
    May 14, 2025
    A $745M verdict in Louisiana's Plaquemines Parish kicked off a wave of lawsuits that could gut the state's energy sector under the guise of eco justice. […]
  • north sea wind farmBritish Energy Boss Says Net-Zero Grid Won’t Lower UK Electric Bills
    May 14, 2025
    British Gas CEO says a net-zero grid won't cut UK electricity prices, contradicting Labour’s savings claim and sparking fresh energy policy debate. […]
  • corn field sunAfricaNews Blames Climate Change for Nigeria’s Drought, Ignores Real Factors
    May 13, 2025
    AfricaNews blames climate change for Nigeria’s drought, but poor water management, deforestation, and overuse are the real, overlooked culprits. […]
  • Chris Wright Fox NewsEnergy Department Axes 47 Rules Targeting Appliances, Buildings, and DEI
    May 13, 2025
    Trump’s Energy Department scrapped 47 rules targeting appliances, buildings, DEI, and energy that gut Green New Deal mandates and lower prices. […]
  • protest climate system changeDivided High Court Ruling Lets Boulder’s Climate Lawsuit ‘Limp Forward’
    May 13, 2025
    A narrow Colorado Supreme Court ruling allows Boulder’s climate lawsuit to stagger forward, even as similar cases nationwide get tossed. […]
  • cars stopped‘Everyone Hates It’: EPA Chief Moves To Scrap Start-Stop Tech In New Cars
    May 13, 2025
    EPA head Lee Zeldin moves to kill start-stop tech in new cars, calling it a hated gimmick that offers little real benefit. […]

Get Instant Email Notifications

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email either instantly or daily. Check your Junk folder for any verification emails upon subscribing.

Submit a tip

Please enter your email, so we know you're human.

Books We Like

very convenient warming

exposing great lie

Have a suggestion? Let us know! We swap out books based on your input. We participate in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program. See here.

  • About
  • Privacy Policy
  • Contact Us

© Portions copyright Climate Change Dispatch

Share via
  • Threads
  • gab-logo Gab
  • Mastodon
  • Buffer
  • Telegram
  • Email
  • Copy Link
  • Share Using More Networks…
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Videos
  • Who We Are
  • Facts Vs. Fearmongering
    • Real science vs Junk Science
      • 1100-plus Peer-Reviewed Studies
      • 97% – Myth of the Climate Change Consensus
      • Michael Crichton: Aliens Cause Global Warming
      • Climate change and its causes
      • Climate Science Primer
      • CO2 is not pollution
      • Deceptive Surface Temperature Records
      • Editorial: Great Global Warming Hoax
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 1
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 2
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 3
      • Why CO2 Is A Minor Player In Global Climate
      • Why Politicized Science Is So Dangerous
    • Facts Not Fear
      • A Simple Question For Climate Alarmists
      • Climate Change – The Facts
      • Climate Change Fears Are Empirically Baseless
      • Global Warming 101
      • Global Warming Q&A
      • Understanding The Medieval Warm Period
      • Ocean Cycles and Climate
      • Overview of Plate Climatology Theory
      • Precautionary Principle
      • Should We Celebrate Carbon Dioxide?
      • The Skeptics Handbook
      • Weather Versus Climate
      • Why I’m a GW skeptic
      • Winning the climate debate with facts
      • Why Aliens Cause Global Warming
    • Greenhouse FAQs
      • CO2, Plants, & Industry
      • How much have temps changed?
      • How much have temps changed?
      • How much have temps changed?
      • Is global warming real?
      • Measuring temperature
      • Swimming in CO2?
      • Scientists urge caution?
      • Today’s warming trend
      • Variations in temperature
    • Gore’s Greatest Goofs
      • Deconstructing the Truth
      • Fact-Checking Al Gore’s Latest Predictions
      • How Gore Created The Global Warming Hoax
    • Inside Real Climate
      • Closer look at the 97% Consensus
      • GW’s Amazing Story
      • IPCC gets failing grade
      • Real Climate Exposed!
      • Truth about Real Climate
      • We’ve Been Conned
      • What is there a 97% consensus about?
    • Behind the IPCC
      • 1,000 Scientists Dissent
      • Climategate: Caught Green-Handed!
      • Climategate Inquiries
      • Climategate Inquiries 2
      • NIPCC Report Now Available
      • Understanding the Climategate Inquiries
  • Submissions
  • Contact Us

© 2025 Climate Change Dispatch