A recently published study led by Norwegian polar bear specialist Jon Aars found that both male and female polar bears were fatter and healthier after 1995, despite the greatest loss of sea ice of any Arctic region. [some emphasis, links added]
However, no evidence was provided that a greater consumption of walrus and reindeer explains these results.
This new paper (Aars et al. 2026) updates and expands to 2019 data for a study I’ve repeatedly cited (e.g., here and here) that reported female bears in better condition between 2005-2017 than during the 1990s, despite dramatic sea ice loss in summer and winter in the 2000s (Lippold et al. 2019).
Both studies contradict predictions that sea ice loss always leads to loss of body condition, and eventually, population decline (Amstrup et al. 2007; Crockford 2017; Crockford 2019).
And as the authors of this latest study admit, field data from the Chukchi Sea also show that polar bears are in excellent condition despite sea ice loss, so Barents Sea bears are not the population to contradict the expectation that sea ice loss = loss of body condition.
In their words, “Our findings underline the importance not to extrapolate findings across populations,” yet this is exactly what all model predictions do because they use Western Hudson Bay and Southern Beaufort data almost exclusively (and thus ignore Chukchi Sea and Barents Sea data).
In addition, and without any evidence provided, the authors speculate that the Barents Sea bears are thriving because they are now eating more walrus and reindeer than they used to:
“Experts think the new findings could be linked to the population recovering from that hunting pressure. That, combined with an increase in the number of walruses – and of reindeer – in recent decades, appears to have provided the bears with a temporary boost.” [BBC, 29 January 2026]
However, there is no data provided in this paper to suggest that polar bears around Svalbard are actually consuming more walrus or reindeer.
In fact, it’s much more likely that increased primary productivity (and thus greater numbers of seals and/or fatter seals) due to longer ice-free summers is the proximate cause of better body condition in both Barents Sea and Chukchi Sea bears.
Top image shows two Polar bears engaging in social behavior in the Arctic via Pixabay.
Dr. Susan Crockford is a zoologist (former adjunct professor at the University of Victoria) specializing in Holocene mammals, including polar bears and walruses. Her latest book is the action thriller Don’t Run. She also wrote Polar Bear Evolution: A Model for How New Species Arise and the bestselling novel The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, as well as Fallen Icon: Sir David Attenborough and the Walrus Deception (Amazon).
Read rest and references at Polar Bear Science
