Everyday States published an article claiming wind and solar power, but especially solar power, provide cheaper electric power than fossil fuels in various states. [some emphasis, links added]
Media outlets have repeatedly made similar claims over the past decade, but as with those previous stories, data on power prices and trends in those states show the claim to be false.
Wind and solar power remain considerably more expensive than more reliable electric power generated by natural gas, coal, and nuclear power. Academic studies prove this, as do electric power rates and trends in the states highlighted in the Everyday States post.
In the story, “The States Where Renewable Energy Is Now Cheaper Than Fossil Fuels,” the author, Lean Thomas, writes under the first sub-head, “The Solar Revolution Transforms America’s Energy Landscape.”
Picture this: just 15 years ago, solar energy cost four times more than the cheapest fossil fuel option. Today, solar is less than half as expensive as the lowest-cost fossil alternative, marking one of the most dramatic cost reversals in industrial history. The transformation is nothing short of remarkable, with solar PV’s levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) being 56% less than the weighted average fossil fuel-fired alternatives in 2023.
Renewables have transformed the energy landscape, but not for the better, unless one likes blackouts and high costs.
One problem for Thomas’ claims is that the LCOE leaves out a lot of the costs inherent to wind and solar: costs in terms of direct subsidies, tax credits, and those related to backup and transmission that are socialized across ratepayers rather than paid for by wind and solar developers.
A peer-reviewed study in the journal Energy attempted to account for all the up-front and hidden costs of competing power generation sources, allowing for an apples-to-apples comparison of affordability, producing a Levelized Full System Costs of Electricity (LFCOE) of competing grid power sources.
After accounting for subsidies, production tax credits, additional transmission lines, backup power, and other state and federal programs incentivizing renewables, the study found that solar energy is 10 times more expensive than natural gas and more than four times more expensive than coal.
Wind is cheaper than solar but still comes in at nearly six times more expensive than natural gas, and more than three times more expensive than coal.
In wind and solar-friendly Texas, for example, the LCFOE for new natural gas is $40.00 per megawatt hour (Mwh), and coal is $90.00 Mwh, compared to $291.00 Mwh for wind and $413.00 Mwh for solar.
Interestingly, Thomas specifically mentions Texas as an example of a state where solar is now cheaper than fossil fuel-generated electricity, yet the Texas experience is this: 20 years ago, Texas had among the lowest electric power rates in the nation, and ratepayer prices were declining under competition.
Texas has abundant coal and natural gas, which is reflected in the state’s rates.
State and federal government help in the form of stricter regulations on coal power plants has caused premature closures. Since 2005, more than 7,000 Mw of coal power has been taken offline to be replaced by 38,000 Mw of wind and 35,000 Mw of solar.
Texas ratepayers now experience more outages, energy emergencies, and calls for conservation than ever in the state’s history, including during the winter, historically the state’s time of lowest demand.
Meanwhile, electric power rates have skyrocketed. In 2005, Texas had the cheapest electric power rates in the region. Since then, as ever more wind and solar were added to the grid, Texans’ electricity prices rose significantly and steeply.
Texas now has the most expensive power in the region and has been among the fastest-rising electric power costs in the nation.
The other state specifically mentioned in the Everyday States story is California, where the story is even worse for the bucolic narrative about abundant and affordable renewable power that Thomas is trying to spin.
California’s power grid is under constant strain, with outages a regular feature, especially during the summer, in large part due to its smothering climate regulations that ended coal use in the state, restrained natural gas, and mandated wind and solar.
Concerning costs, California’s residential electric power rates are the highest, and its commercial power rates are the second highest in the continental United States. California’s residential rates are nearly double the national average.
Despite the fact that Californians use less energy per capita in the nation, their power prices keep rising, in large part due to climate regulations and the forced displacement of fossil fuels and nuclear by wind and solar power via mandates and special pricing. California’s electric power rates have more than doubled since 2005.
Everyday States should not mislead their readers with fairy tales of cheap electricity from solar and wind.
Data from the Energy Information Administration is clear and easy to access, and it shows that states that remain largely dependent upon coal or hydropower have among the lowest residential, commercial, and industrial electric power rates in the nation.
By contrast, states with rising renewable energy mandates and subsidies are among the highest and fastest-rising energy costs.
Contrary to Thomas’ fantastical assertions, the more “cheap” wind and solar are added to a state’s grid, the higher (and faster-rising) the energy costs, and the less reliable its power system as a whole.
Read more at Climate Realism
