Why are many parts of the world so warm right now? Over the past four months, we have seen record-breaking temperatures.
September, globally averaged, was 0.5°C above the previous record. 2023 is bound to be the warmest year of the instrumental record period.
This is quite extraordinary, but what is behind this sudden spike in temperature? [emphasis, links added]
Speaking on Channel 4, Piers Forster of the Climate Change Committee, said the sudden uptick in temperatures was 500 times bigger than climate scientists expected.
He says the temperature record covered the whole world. Gavin Schmidt of the Goddard Spaceflight Center said 20% of the globe was setting new records. Others said it was just 12%. The Guardian’s front page said simply “Out of Control.”
It’s a state of affairs that has caused much confusion among climate scientists and commentators (often the same thing), many of whom attribute the sudden spike to climate change – but in doing so end up being rather muddled and contradictory.
But is there anything really ‘out of control’? Is this abrupt climate change? Perhaps a transition, the crossing of a threshold?
There are some who look to climate computer models for an explanation, saying that what we have seen over the past few months is in line with expected warming but at the upper end of the scale.
This is highly unlikely because the events of a few months, especially during a strong El Niño year when there is so much variability going on, are not a climate change event, even though Zeke Hausfather has said that 2023 has been unusual for the climate.
Actually, if you view what has happened in terms of climate models it is a clear failure because none predicted the spike – once again showing their inadequacy.
In short, it’s not climate change because – as reputable climate scientists rightly emphasize – a sudden temperature spike or drop in a single year (or even in a number of years) can and does happen quite frequently, although this year is a particularly unusual spike.
Nevertheless, this sudden rise in temperature is in far too short a period to be driven by global warming, which is a long-term trend.
Abrupt climate change is possible without human forcing and is not unusual in the climate record, even recently.
Between 1976 and 1977, the Tropical Pacific underwent a rapid warming that had global impacts, including over North America, which was wetter than usual for the following two decades. Even today the cause of the 1976/77 climate shift is still debated.
The explanation for the recent event has not one cause but multiple. A major reason why parts of the world are so hot is the El Niño that warms the surface of much of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
This typically raises the global average temperatures by about 0.1°C to 0.2°C, but it can be higher due to the variability of the phenomenon.
Having recently emerged from a triple La Nina, which cools the planet, it is perhaps understandable why this current El Niño is so intense.
Then there are also the new regulations regarding sulfur in ship fuels that have dramatically reduced the sulfur aerosol emission that has cleared the air over many oceans, especially the North Atlantic.
Indeed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic are very high this summer after a period of rapid warming in the spring. Globally, the North Atlantic is far in excess of anything we’ve seen in that region.
Another contributing factor could be the Hunga Tonga eruption in the South Pacific last year. It injected large amounts of water vapor into the upper atmosphere, probably increasing the greenhouse effect. Initial estimates are quite modest, but they could be revised further as work is done.
The Sun might also be playing a role, particularly since this current cycle has surprised astronomers by being more intense than expected. In addition to these, we have seen persistent high-pressure systems over many land regions such as Australia and Western Europe.
Climate change means that these changes are acting on an increased global temperature baseline.
However, it should be noted that climate change doesn’t explain why September 2023 is so much warmer than September 2022. The main difference is due to a combination of other factors.
The best time to judge what has happened over the past few months is to wait until the year after the current El Niño subsides. There is a significant chance that global temperatures will drop, just as they dropped after the last big El Niño spike in 2015/16.
Read more at NZW
I’ll recap a discussion that happened on this web site. It was stated that 2023 is an extra warm year, which appears to be true. There was the clear implication that the extra warm year meant more action is needed that is advocated by the climate change movement. The warmer year was explained in part by water injected into the upper atmosphere by the Tonga eruption in 2022. This increased the water at that level by 14%. A commentator dismissed this because there was a time delay between the eruption and the warming. A plausible explanation is that the sulfur ejected mitigated the warming by the water, but since sulfur dissipates faster than water its mitigation effect would decrease as the water remained much longer. The same commentator said that there wasn’t much sulfur in the Tonga eruption. I tried to find how much was emitted but was unable to do so. If Anthony Lopez’s post is accurate, the eruption ejected 500 metric tons of sulfur. This is 20 times greater than the yearly emissions of all of earth’s volcanoes in a year. The theory that the delay was caused by sulfur is viable. It never made sense that after increasing the water level by 14% in the upper atmosphere would have no impact. I really enjoyed the warmer year and hope to do so in the next few years.
NOTA IMPORTANTE/ACLARATORIA: En Enero de 2022, el volcán submarino Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai en el Pacífico Sur lanzó al aire mucho más de 150 millones de toneladas de agua a mas de 60Km. de Altura, aumentando la que ya hay en esa capa atmosferica mas de un 14%, segun primeros estudios de la NASA, ESA y varias Universidades tan extraordinario para las Ciencias modernas, investigan el fenomeno, y con muchas dificultades, que en forma de vapor es un gas de invernadero que atrapa el calor, según la investigadora Margot Clyne, que coordina simulaciones informáticas internacionales del impacto climático de la erupción.
El volcán también lanzó 500.000 toneladas métricas de dióxido de azufre a la alta atmósfera.
La cantidad de agua “es una locura total, absolutamente colosal”, dijo Holger Vomel, especialista en vapor de agua estratosférico en el Centro Nacional de Investigación Atmosférica que publicó un trabajo sobre los efectos climáticos potenciales de la erupción.
El vapor de agua llegó a un nivel demasiado alto en la atmósfera como para que se advierta ya su efecto, pero esto podría cambiar más adelante, añadió.
Un par de estudios utilizan modelos informáticos para mostrar el efecto de calentamiento de tanto vapor de agua salina marina. Según un estudio, aún no sometido a la revisión por sus pares que es imprescindible en la investigación científica, el calentamiento sería de entre 1,5 ° C (2,7 °F) adicional en algunos lugares y 1 °C (1,8 °F) en otros mayores aun debido a la subida abrupta y violenta de esas cantidades de vapor de aguas marinas a 60 Km. de altura en la MESOSFERA, situacion unica en toda la historia moderna de la Vulcanologia Maritima… Se calcula que tardara como minimo en restablecerse los Niveles anteriores unos 5 a 6 años, aunque no hay certezas al ser este fenomeno unico en la historia climatologica de la Tierra en los ultimos siglos. Tiempo al tiempo.(sic).-
Google Translate: IMPORTANT/EXLARATORY NOTE: In January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai underwater volcano in the South Pacific released more than 150 million tons of water into the air more than 60 km. of Height, increasing what is already in that atmospheric layer by more than 14%, according to first studies by NASA, ESA and several Universities so extraordinary for modern Sciences, they investigate the phenomenon, and with many difficulties, that in the form of vapor It is a greenhouse gas that traps heat, according to researcher Margot Clyne, who coordinates international computer simulations of the eruption’s climate impact.
The volcano also released 500,000 metric tons of sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere.
The amount of water “is totally crazy, absolutely colossal,” said Holger Vomel, a stratospheric water vapor specialist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research who published a paper on the potential climate effects of the eruption.
The water vapor reached too high a level in the atmosphere for its effect to be noticed now, but this could change later, he added.
A couple of studies use computer models to show the warming effect of so much saline marine water vapor. According to a study, not yet subjected to the peer review that is essential in scientific research, the warming would be between 1.5 ° C (2.7 ° F) additional in some places and 1 ° C (1.8 °F) in others even greater due to the abrupt and violent rise of these quantities of marine water vapor at 60 km high in the MESOSPHERE, a unique situation in the entire modern history of Maritime Volcanology… It is estimated that it will take at least It will take about 5 to 6 years to restore previous levels, although there is no certainty as this phenomenon is unique in the climatological history of the Earth in recent centuries. Time to time.(sic).-