The North American grid watchdog Thursday published its annual long-term reliability assessment, and the analysis offers a sharp warning about the growing threat of blackouts across much of the United States in the coming years. [some emphasis, links added]
“The overall resource adequacy outlook for the North American BPS is worsening: In the 2025 LTRA [long-term reliability assessment], NERC finds that 13 of 23 assessment areas face resource adequacy challenges over the next 10 years,” the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) report states.
During January’s Winter Storm Fern, many parts of the U.S. grid neared the point where demand exceeded supply.
If the grid continues to shut down fossil-fuel generation and tries to meet demand with intermittent wind and solar, according to NERC, more Americans will face blackouts when demand is high.
Language grows more dire each year
As electricity demand grows, including data centers, the nation’s grid relies on intermittent wind and solar resources to meet that demand, NERC explains, while plants running on reliable coal and natural gas are slated for retirement over the next five years.
“The continuing shift in the resource mix toward weather-dependent resources and less fuel diversity increases risks of supply shortfalls during winter months,” NERC warns.
The language in these annual assessments from NERC has gone from describing maintaining resource adequacy on the renewable-heavy grid from being a challenge to being a problem.
“The electricity sector is undergoing significant and rapid change that presents new challenges and opportunities for reliability. With appropriate insight, careful planning, and continued support, the electricity sector will continue to navigate the associated challenges in a manner that maintains reliability and resilience,” NERC stated in its 2019 LTRA.
By 2023, NERC’s assessment had begun warning that large portions of the nation’s grid would be stressed during periods of high demand.
“The North American BPS [bulk power system] is on the cusp of large-scale growth, bringing reliability challenges and opportunities to a grid that was already amid unprecedented change,” NERC reported.
Last year’s assessment no longer talked of opportunities.
“NERC finds that most of the North American BPS faces mounting resource adequacy challenges over the next 10 years as surging demand growth continues and thermal generators announce plans for retirement,” the watchdog warned.
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