• Privacy Policy
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
Climate Change Dispatch
  • Home
  • Videos
  • Who We Are
  • Facts Vs. Fearmongering
    • Real science vs Junk Science
      • 1100-plus Peer-Reviewed Studies
      • 97% – Myth of the Climate Change Consensus
      • Michael Crichton: Aliens Cause Global Warming
      • Climate change and its causes
      • Climate Science Primer
      • CO2 is not pollution
      • Deceptive Surface Temperature Records
      • Editorial: Great Global Warming Hoax
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 1
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 2
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 3
      • Why CO2 Is A Minor Player In Global Climate
      • Why Politicized Science Is So Dangerous
    • Facts Not Fear
      • A Simple Question For Climate Alarmists
      • Climate Change – The Facts
      • Climate Change Fears Are Empirically Baseless
      • Global Warming 101
      • Global Warming Q&A
      • Understanding The Medieval Warm Period
      • Ocean Cycles and Climate
      • Overview of Plate Climatology Theory
      • Precautionary Principle
      • Should We Celebrate Carbon Dioxide?
      • The Skeptics Handbook
      • Weather Versus Climate
      • Why I’m a GW skeptic
      • Winning the climate debate with facts
      • Why Aliens Cause Global Warming
    • Greenhouse FAQs
      • CO2, Plants, & Industry
      • How much have temps changed?
      • How much have temps changed?
      • How much have temps changed?
      • Is global warming real?
      • Measuring temperature
      • Swimming in CO2?
      • Scientists urge caution?
      • Today’s warming trend
      • Variations in temperature
    • Gore’s Greatest Goofs
      • Deconstructing the Truth
      • Fact-Checking Al Gore’s Latest Predictions
      • How Gore Created The Global Warming Hoax
    • Inside Real Climate
      • Closer look at the 97% Consensus
      • GW’s Amazing Story
      • IPCC gets failing grade
      • Real Climate Exposed!
      • Truth about Real Climate
      • We’ve Been Conned
      • What is there a 97% consensus about?
    • Behind the IPCC
      • 1,000 Scientists Dissent
      • Climategate: Caught Green-Handed!
      • Climategate Inquiries
      • Climategate Inquiries 2
      • NIPCC Report Now Available
      • Understanding the Climategate Inquiries
  • Submissions
  • Contact Us
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Videos
  • Who We Are
  • Facts Vs. Fearmongering
    • Real science vs Junk Science
      • 1100-plus Peer-Reviewed Studies
      • 97% – Myth of the Climate Change Consensus
      • Michael Crichton: Aliens Cause Global Warming
      • Climate change and its causes
      • Climate Science Primer
      • CO2 is not pollution
      • Deceptive Surface Temperature Records
      • Editorial: Great Global Warming Hoax
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 1
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 2
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 3
      • Why CO2 Is A Minor Player In Global Climate
      • Why Politicized Science Is So Dangerous
    • Facts Not Fear
      • A Simple Question For Climate Alarmists
      • Climate Change – The Facts
      • Climate Change Fears Are Empirically Baseless
      • Global Warming 101
      • Global Warming Q&A
      • Understanding The Medieval Warm Period
      • Ocean Cycles and Climate
      • Overview of Plate Climatology Theory
      • Precautionary Principle
      • Should We Celebrate Carbon Dioxide?
      • The Skeptics Handbook
      • Weather Versus Climate
      • Why I’m a GW skeptic
      • Winning the climate debate with facts
      • Why Aliens Cause Global Warming
    • Greenhouse FAQs
      • CO2, Plants, & Industry
      • How much have temps changed?
      • How much have temps changed?
      • How much have temps changed?
      • Is global warming real?
      • Measuring temperature
      • Swimming in CO2?
      • Scientists urge caution?
      • Today’s warming trend
      • Variations in temperature
    • Gore’s Greatest Goofs
      • Deconstructing the Truth
      • Fact-Checking Al Gore’s Latest Predictions
      • How Gore Created The Global Warming Hoax
    • Inside Real Climate
      • Closer look at the 97% Consensus
      • GW’s Amazing Story
      • IPCC gets failing grade
      • Real Climate Exposed!
      • Truth about Real Climate
      • We’ve Been Conned
      • What is there a 97% consensus about?
    • Behind the IPCC
      • 1,000 Scientists Dissent
      • Climategate: Caught Green-Handed!
      • Climategate Inquiries
      • Climategate Inquiries 2
      • NIPCC Report Now Available
      • Understanding the Climategate Inquiries
  • Submissions
  • Contact Us
No Result
View All Result
Climate Change Dispatch
No Result
View All Result

IPPC Science In Trouble: A Significant Drop In Global Temperature

by Antero Ollila, guest post
March 05, 2021, 9:23 AM
in News and Opinion
A A
8
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

earth sunriseAccording to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), three of the hottest years in measurement history (note! not the warmest) have been 2016, 2019, and 2020 (see Figure 1 after the jump).

The total radiative forcings (RF) according to the IPCC reports and the temperature changes calculated from them have also been added to Figure 1, according to the IPCC’s simple climate model.

These values show that only the temperature measured in 2005 and the model-calculated values have been more or less the same (adjusted by aerosol/cloud forcings).

Figure 1. Temperature development between 1980 and 2020, IPCC temperature forcings, and the temperature values calculated from them.

This value is embarrassing for the IPCC that the total climate forcings were lower than in 2000, even though greenhouse gas concentrations had risen by 2005.

According to the latest assessment report AR5 of IPCC, the temperature increase from 1880 to 2011 had been 0.85°C and the IPCC climate forcings give a value of 1.17°C, so there was an error of 0.32°C (38%).

This is probably the reason why there are no model-calculated temperature values for 2011 in the AR5, but plenty of future forecasts.

Therefore, this is a conclusion: The IPCC models calculate future temperatures accurately, but they are not suitable for calculating current temperatures from 1750 or from 1880 onward.

The new IPCC report, AR6, will be published in April 2021. Since it takes a couple of years to make a report, the latest data, which can still be used in the calculations are the years 2019 and 2020.

Both years have been looking very good for the IPCC because the measured and calculated temperatures are finally very close to each other.

Some dark clouds have been recently appeared on the horizon, which can be observed in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Monthly values of the satellite temperature UAH and Gistemp measurement series between 2006 and 2020. Gistemp has increased by about 0.2 °C more during the period than UAH. Temperature series have a different standardization method. The impact of ENSO events has been calculated using the formula 0.1*ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) applying a delay of five months.

Since October 2010, the temperature has dropped from 0.4°C in November to 0.15°C in December, to 0.12°C in January, and to 0.2°C in February.

Temperature changes since 2014 can be assessed against the background information that carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations have increased from 398.87 ppm in 2014 to 414.24 ppm in 2020.

According to IPCC science, this change causes a temperature change of 0.1°C meaning 0.02°C per year. After 2014, the culprit for drastic temperature changes cannot be CO2 or man, even according to IPCC science, although the media writes this.

The strong temperature increase of about 0.6°C caused by the 2015-16 super El Nino is well known, but there is an understandable desire to keep quiet about it in this context, as the general public is unaware of this. The temperature effects of ENSO events are shown in Figure 2 as a blue curve.

Until 2014, ENSO events explain quite well the changes in temperature, but since then the temperature has been high in 2019-2020, even though El Ninos have been small in size.

For the high temperatures in 2019 and 2020, I have not seen research results or blog posts, with exceptions of references 1 and 2. Figure 3 shows the main cause of this warming.

Mother Nature has quietly arranged an easy-to-measure experiment, which has been kept in silence both by the climate establishment and by dissidents.

It is not a change in solar activity, and therefore I call it short-wave radiation, which has grown sharply especially since 2014. A probable reason is a change of low-level clouds, Ref. 1.

Figure 3. Annual trends in shortwave radiation from 2001 to 2020.

The radiation level in 2001 is clearly lower than in the later years. The trend in 2020 initially followed the 2019 curve closely, but then there was a change after September. Global temperatures fell sharply in December 2020 and have remained at a lower level so far.

The change in shortwave radiative forcing (RF) is significant. According to the IPCC science, the temperature effect of a change in RF at the top of the atmosphere is calculated by multiplying the RF value by the climate sensitivity parameter λ.

According to the IPCC, the value of the λ is 0,5 K/(Wm-2). This value means the positive feedback of water, which doubles the value of all other RFs.

According to my own research, there is no positive feedback in the atmosphere except the case of ENSO phenomena and therefore the value of λ is 0,27 K/(Wm-2).

So, a change in RF of 1 Wm-2 causes a temperature change of approximately 0,3°C, Ref. 3. The large model-calculated temperature differences in Figures 4 and 5 are due to the different λ values.

Figure 4. Temperature trend and Ollila model.

Figure 4 shows that my model explains very well the temperature changes. If you’re wondering why the last value of shortwave radiation in this presentation is from May 2020, the explanation is that NASA updates new versions for CERES satellites every 2-3 months, and now the last monthly value is from October 2020.

Since CERES values include seasonal variation, they must be averaged using the 12-month method, i.e. monthly values must be available 6 months backward and 6 months forward.

The IPCC has three reasons to be silent about the recent temperature trend changes. Firstly, the change in the level of shortwave radiation between 2001 and 2020 was 1.75 Wm-2, which corresponds to a temperature change of 0.88°C.

This value can be compared with the IPCC’s RF value of CO2, which was according to AR5 1.68 Wm2 from 1750 to 2011. The IPCC’s policy is that only humans should be blamed.

Secondly, the causes of climate change are man-made, and if the rise of temperature seems to be in line with the IPCC model, it is of course a good thing for the IPCC.

Thirdly, the IPCC’s simple model gives a rise in temperature after 2014, which is about 0.5 °C higher than the measured GISTEMP temperature, Figure 5.

Figure 5. GISTEMP temperature trend and IPCC simple climate model.

Here too, the climate establishment has followed Wittgenstein’s instruction that “whereof we cannot speak, thereof we must remain silent.”

We have no way of knowing whether the change in shortwave radiation will be short-lived, such as the 2017-18 drop, or whether the decrease in the anomaly will continue permanently.

The experiment, organized by Mother Nature, already shows beyond doubt: there is no positive feedback of water in the atmosphere.

This experiment has already revealed that the IPCC models are not working, because they run too hot. The release of the IPCC assessment report AR6 in April 2021 will have a poor starting point because the IPCC climate science does not reflect reality.

On the other hand, the journalists have so poor know-how in climate science that the IPCC’s explanations may pass through the media without question, especially since contrarian scientists will have no opportunity to make any criticisms.

References

  1. Loeb NG, Thorsen TJ, Norris JR, Wang H, Su W. Changes in earth’s energy budget during and after the “pause” in global warming: an observational perspective. 2018;6:62. doi:103390/cli6030062.
  2. Ollila, A.  The pause end and major temperature impacts during super El Niños are due to shortwave radiation anomalies. Sc. Int. J.  24(2), 1-20 (2020).
  3. Ollila, A. The potency of carbon dioxide (CO2) as a greenhouse gas. Dev. in Earth Sc.  2, 20-30 (2014).

Antero Ollila is Dr. Tech. from the Helsinki University where he has been Adj. Ass. Professor till 2011. Thereafter he has carried out research work writing 19 papers encompassing the greenhouse effect, radiative and warming effects of greenhouse gases, carbon circulation, the energy balance of the Earth, and dynamical simulations of climate.

  • Truth
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • Gettr
  • Threads
  • gab-logo Gab
  • Mastodon
  • Buffer
  • Telegram
  • Email
  • Copy Link
  • Share Using More Networks…
Share via
  • Facebook
  • Like
  • Twitter
  • Pinterest
  • LinkedIn
  • Digg
  • Tumblr
  • VKontakte
  • Print
  • Email
  • Reddit
  • Buffer
  • Love This
  • Weibo
  • Pocket
  • Xing
  • Odnoklassniki
  • WhatsApp
  • Meneame
  • Blogger
  • Amazon
  • Yahoo Mail
  • Gmail
  • AOL
  • Newsvine
  • HackerNews
  • Evernote
  • MySpace
  • Mail.ru
  • Viadeo
  • Line
  • Flipboard
  • Comments
  • SMS
  • Viber
  • Telegram
  • Subscribe
  • Skype
  • Facebook Messenger
  • Kakao
  • LiveJournal
  • Yammer
  • Edgar
  • Fintel
  • Mix
  • Instapaper
  • Copy Link
  • Truth
  • gab-logo Gab
  • Gettr
  • Baidu
  • Mastodon
  • Threads
  • Bluesky

Join our list

Subscribe to our mailing list and get interesting stuff and updates to your email inbox.

Thank you for subscribing.

Something went wrong.

We respect your privacy and take protecting it seriously

Related Posts

Energy

How Wind And Solar Sent Energy Prices Sky-High in ‘Green’ Countries

May 8, 2025
Money & Finance

Bernie Sanders Defends Private Jet Use, Says ‘He’s Too Important’ To Fly Coach

May 8, 2025
Energy

Green Energy Suicide: The West Pays The Price For Its Net-Zero Delusions

May 8, 2025

Comments 8

  1. John Shewchuk says:
    4 years ago

    If you ignore the government’s corrupt activities to alter temperature data, the data shows a global cooling trend. The fake 97% consensus is a big lie. There is no climate change crisis — there’s a climate collusion crisis … https://newtube.app/user/RAOB/drbkiaw

  2. Antero Ollila says:
    4 years ago

    To Chaamjamal. The time constants of the Earth’s temperature response are 1 month for land and 3 months for the ocean. It means that a stepwise change of a climate driving force has a full effect after about 1 year. Otherwise, we could not observe so quick changes in temperature trends. The period of 10 years is long enough for detecting the behavior of different climate models. In Figure 1 you can see the driving forcings and corresponding temperature effects of the IPCC’s climate model calculated from the year 1880. These numbers are not invented by me but they are from Assessment Reports of the IPCC and for the year 2020 from NASA greenhouse index table.

    • Chaamjamal says:
      4 years ago

      Thank you Antero. As you can see in the charts provided, steady long term warming trends are creations of volatile decadal trends.
      https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/11/global-warming-dec2020/

  3. Chaamjamal says:
    4 years ago

    Link to internal clumate variability.
    https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/

  4. Chaamjamal says:
    4 years ago

    The time scales used in the analysis may be a little too short. Please take a look at the UAH data presented in the link below and compare the long term trends in the left frame with the corresponding decadal trends in the right frame.

    https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/11/global-warming-dec2020/

    According to the internal climate variability issue in climate science, the time scale for this kind of evaluation must be longer than 30 years. Link to internal variability in the next comment.

  5. Gumnut says:
    4 years ago

    In my neck of the woods, we hardly experienced any days over one hundred degrees Fahrenheit this Australian summer just past. This is most unusual.

    When we did, the days were more like southern coastal conditions where a high was reached for a period of relatively shorter duration.

    Given modern thermometer technology, a spike of heat can be easily measured in a way that wasn’t possible with old-time equipment. A minimum overnight temperature will give some idea of how hot it has been at 9am, but it is only with a series of recordings that a daily temperature is truly explained. The media tend to latch onto the headline assessments, though.

    The upshot is that a hundred degree F day in the Victorian capital, Melbourne, is rarely as continuously hot as a 100 degree day in the inland north of the state, as tourists will often attest to.

    Yet, if all one looks at are simple maxima, these quite differing experiences are deemed to be exactly the same.

  6. Colin Harkin says:
    4 years ago

    James, any idea as to why there’s no mention of the 25th GSM? Here at our place, it is obvious something else is going on because we have had virtually no summer and a lot of cloudy days since mid December. I’m 72 and I have never experienced a summer like this in my life time. It’s been like early autumn most days.

  7. JAMES MATKIN says:
    4 years ago

    Reading the news from around the world confirms that IPCC models and observed weather have not matched for a long time with the latter too hot. Winter cold and snow consistently fail to be moderat as the alarmists promised. Trying to measure a global temperature with precision to a tenth of a degree is surely fiction. Yes, the earth is cooling and that is confirmed by Harvard research reconstructed the renamed our inter glacial the HOLOCENE CONUNDRUM because of the unexpected decline in temperatures for the past 5000 years.

Stay Connected On Social Media

gab-logo

Donate Today

Beating back the alarmist narrative takes time and money. Please donate today to help!

Recent Posts

  • german wind farmHow Wind And Solar Sent Energy Prices Sky-High in ‘Green’ Countries
    May 8, 2025
    Adding more green energy makes power more expensive, not cheaper—due to unreliable output, required fossil fuel backup, and taxpayer subsidies. […]
  • bernie sanders fox newsBernie Sanders Defends Private Jet Use, Says ‘He’s Too Important’ To Fly Coach
    May 8, 2025
    Bernie Sanders and AOC are facing criticism for using private jets while promoting their climate-focused “Fighting Oligarchy” tour. […]
  • blackout stationGreen Energy Suicide: The West Pays The Price For Its Net-Zero Delusions
    May 8, 2025
    Green energy policies clash with reality as Europe and the U.S. face blackouts, soaring costs, and a collapsing power grid. […]
  • wright trump exec orderDOE Scraps $4.5M Website And Logo Project Meant To Showcase Green Agenda
    May 8, 2025
    The DOE canceled a $4.5 million contract the Biden admin awarded for a new agency website and logo that highlighted the green energy transition. […]
  • desantis bill signing‘Dead On Arrival’: DeSantis Signs Law Banning Geoengineering And Weather Modification In Florida
    May 7, 2025
    DeSantis has signed legislation shutting down geoengineering and weather modification projects in Florida amid rising voter concerns. […]
  • columbia protestersNo Worthwhile Research Was Lost In The Columbia Funding Cuts
    May 7, 2025
    Columbia University laid off 180 people after Trump ended grants for leftist equity and global warming research. […]
  • tree ringsHow Activists And Flawed Data Created The Illusion Of A Climate Apocalypse
    May 7, 2025
    Activist-made climate graphic misuses smoothed proxy data to exaggerate modern warming, with IPCC silence fueling ongoing alarmism and misinformation. […]
  • polar bear clappingTwo New Studies Reveal Shocking Polar Ice Gains, Upend Climate Narrative
    May 7, 2025
    Two new studies reveal unexpected polar ice trends, challenging climate assumptions and highlighting the need for pragmatic energy policy. […]
  • offshore wind farmBlue States Sue After Trump Halts ‘Green’ Projects, Seek To Revive Biden’s Wind Subsidies
    May 7, 2025
    Trump halts offshore wind leases, triggering lawsuits from 17 blue states trying to rescue Biden-era green-energy graft from the chopping block. […]
  • chris wright‘Absolute Silliness’: DOE Delays Biden-Era Fossil Fuel Ban In Federal Buildings
    May 6, 2025
    The DOE is postponing a Biden-era rule that would limit fossil fuel use in federal buildings, aligning with Trump's energy priorities. […]

Get Instant Email Notifications

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email either instantly or daily. Check your Junk folder for any verification emails upon subscribing.

Submit a tip

Please enter your email, so we know you're human.

Books We Like

very convenient warming

exposing great lie

Have a suggestion? Let us know! We swap out books based on your input. We participate in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program. See here.

  • About
  • Privacy Policy
  • Contact Us

© Portions copyright Climate Change Dispatch

Share via
  • Threads
  • gab-logo Gab
  • Mastodon
  • Buffer
  • Telegram
  • Email
  • Copy Link
  • Share Using More Networks…
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Videos
  • Who We Are
  • Facts Vs. Fearmongering
    • Real science vs Junk Science
      • 1100-plus Peer-Reviewed Studies
      • 97% – Myth of the Climate Change Consensus
      • Michael Crichton: Aliens Cause Global Warming
      • Climate change and its causes
      • Climate Science Primer
      • CO2 is not pollution
      • Deceptive Surface Temperature Records
      • Editorial: Great Global Warming Hoax
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 1
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 2
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 3
      • Why CO2 Is A Minor Player In Global Climate
      • Why Politicized Science Is So Dangerous
    • Facts Not Fear
      • A Simple Question For Climate Alarmists
      • Climate Change – The Facts
      • Climate Change Fears Are Empirically Baseless
      • Global Warming 101
      • Global Warming Q&A
      • Understanding The Medieval Warm Period
      • Ocean Cycles and Climate
      • Overview of Plate Climatology Theory
      • Precautionary Principle
      • Should We Celebrate Carbon Dioxide?
      • The Skeptics Handbook
      • Weather Versus Climate
      • Why I’m a GW skeptic
      • Winning the climate debate with facts
      • Why Aliens Cause Global Warming
    • Greenhouse FAQs
      • CO2, Plants, & Industry
      • How much have temps changed?
      • How much have temps changed?
      • How much have temps changed?
      • Is global warming real?
      • Measuring temperature
      • Swimming in CO2?
      • Scientists urge caution?
      • Today’s warming trend
      • Variations in temperature
    • Gore’s Greatest Goofs
      • Deconstructing the Truth
      • Fact-Checking Al Gore’s Latest Predictions
      • How Gore Created The Global Warming Hoax
    • Inside Real Climate
      • Closer look at the 97% Consensus
      • GW’s Amazing Story
      • IPCC gets failing grade
      • Real Climate Exposed!
      • Truth about Real Climate
      • We’ve Been Conned
      • What is there a 97% consensus about?
    • Behind the IPCC
      • 1,000 Scientists Dissent
      • Climategate: Caught Green-Handed!
      • Climategate Inquiries
      • Climategate Inquiries 2
      • NIPCC Report Now Available
      • Understanding the Climategate Inquiries
  • Submissions
  • Contact Us

© 2025 Climate Change Dispatch