President Donald Trump kicked off an affordability tour in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, and among the concerns he’s discussing at the events is the cost of energy. [some emphasis, links added]
It’s a big concern for Americans. A recent poll conducted by Ipsos, a marketing research and consulting firm, found that 73% of U.S. residents were concerned about increases in their electricity and gas bills this year.
A new analysis by Always On Energy Research and the Institute for Energy Research shows that residents of blue states see higher electricity bills than those of red states, and the main reason is that blue states have stricter renewable energy policies.
Presidential preference and energy rates
Using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the analysis found that 86% of states with electricity prices above the national average in the continental U.S. voted for a Democratic nominee for president in the 2020 and 2024 elections, while 80% of those who voted for a Republican nominee in those years had the lowest electricity prices.
The correlation between [presidential voter preferences] and electricity prices is interesting, but it doesn’t prove a causal relationship.
To get closer to the cause, the analysis highlights five states: California, Florida, Louisiana, Kentucky, and New York.
Blue state mandates
New York has one of the most aggressive climate laws in the U.S., which requires the state to produce 70% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030 and 100% by 2040.
Electricity rates in the state are 58% higher than the national average.
Added to that, New York shut down the Indian Point nuclear power plant, banned fracking, and denied permits for needed gas pipelines.
While restricting the supply of electricity, the state also has building electrification mandates, which increase demand. In addition, ratepayers effectively pay a tax on carbon dioxide emissions, part of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative.
California is on a similar trajectory, with renewable mandates, nuclear plant closures, and programs that allow homeowners with rooftop solar to sell their excess electricity back to the grid.
Residents of the Golden State pay double the national average electricity rate.
The state currently has a target for 100% renewable energy by 2045. As it shifts its grid to run primarily on intermittent energy sources, it’s also mandating that all cars sold in the state be electric by 2035.
This will add further demand for electricity on the state’s grid.
Red state fossil fuels
Florida’s electricity rates, by comparison, are 2% below the national average. Florida set a goal of 100% renewable energy by 2050. But last year, Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a law that began repealing the mandate.
The state currently gets 75% of its power from natural gas.
Louisiana has the third-lowest electricity rate in the U.S. and gets 73% of its generation from natural gas turbines. It also hasn’t attempted to implement renewable energy goals.
Likewise, Kentucky’s electricity rates are 21% lower than the national average. The state gets 67% of its electricity from coal and 26% from natural gas, and it also has no renewable energy requirements.
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