• Privacy Policy
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
Climate Change Dispatch
  • Home
  • Videos
  • Who We Are
  • Facts Vs. Fearmongering
    • Real science vs Junk Science
      • 1100-plus Peer-Reviewed Studies
      • 97% – Myth of the Climate Change Consensus
      • Michael Crichton: Aliens Cause Global Warming
      • Climate change and its causes
      • Climate Science Primer
      • CO2 is not pollution
      • Deceptive Surface Temperature Records
      • Editorial: Great Global Warming Hoax
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 1
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 2
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 3
      • Why CO2 Is A Minor Player In Global Climate
      • Why Politicized Science Is So Dangerous
    • Facts Not Fear
      • A Simple Question For Climate Alarmists
      • Climate Change – The Facts
      • Climate Change Fears Are Empirically Baseless
      • Global Warming 101
      • Global Warming Q&A
      • Understanding The Medieval Warm Period
      • Ocean Cycles and Climate
      • Overview of Plate Climatology Theory
      • Precautionary Principle
      • Should We Celebrate Carbon Dioxide?
      • The Skeptics Handbook
      • Weather Versus Climate
      • Why I’m a GW skeptic
      • Winning the climate debate with facts
      • Why Aliens Cause Global Warming
    • Greenhouse FAQs
      • CO2, Plants, & Industry
      • How much have temps changed?
      • How much have temps changed?
      • How much have temps changed?
      • Is global warming real?
      • Measuring temperature
      • Swimming in CO2?
      • Scientists urge caution?
      • Today’s warming trend
      • Variations in temperature
    • Gore’s Greatest Goofs
      • Deconstructing the Truth
      • Fact-Checking Al Gore’s Latest Predictions
      • How Gore Created The Global Warming Hoax
    • Inside Real Climate
      • Closer look at the 97% Consensus
      • GW’s Amazing Story
      • IPCC gets failing grade
      • Real Climate Exposed!
      • Truth about Real Climate
      • We’ve Been Conned
      • What is there a 97% consensus about?
    • Behind the IPCC
      • 1,000 Scientists Dissent
      • Climategate: Caught Green-Handed!
      • Climategate Inquiries
      • Climategate Inquiries 2
      • NIPCC Report Now Available
      • Understanding the Climategate Inquiries
  • Submissions
  • Contact Us
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Videos
  • Who We Are
  • Facts Vs. Fearmongering
    • Real science vs Junk Science
      • 1100-plus Peer-Reviewed Studies
      • 97% – Myth of the Climate Change Consensus
      • Michael Crichton: Aliens Cause Global Warming
      • Climate change and its causes
      • Climate Science Primer
      • CO2 is not pollution
      • Deceptive Surface Temperature Records
      • Editorial: Great Global Warming Hoax
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 1
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 2
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 3
      • Why CO2 Is A Minor Player In Global Climate
      • Why Politicized Science Is So Dangerous
    • Facts Not Fear
      • A Simple Question For Climate Alarmists
      • Climate Change – The Facts
      • Climate Change Fears Are Empirically Baseless
      • Global Warming 101
      • Global Warming Q&A
      • Understanding The Medieval Warm Period
      • Ocean Cycles and Climate
      • Overview of Plate Climatology Theory
      • Precautionary Principle
      • Should We Celebrate Carbon Dioxide?
      • The Skeptics Handbook
      • Weather Versus Climate
      • Why I’m a GW skeptic
      • Winning the climate debate with facts
      • Why Aliens Cause Global Warming
    • Greenhouse FAQs
      • CO2, Plants, & Industry
      • How much have temps changed?
      • How much have temps changed?
      • How much have temps changed?
      • Is global warming real?
      • Measuring temperature
      • Swimming in CO2?
      • Scientists urge caution?
      • Today’s warming trend
      • Variations in temperature
    • Gore’s Greatest Goofs
      • Deconstructing the Truth
      • Fact-Checking Al Gore’s Latest Predictions
      • How Gore Created The Global Warming Hoax
    • Inside Real Climate
      • Closer look at the 97% Consensus
      • GW’s Amazing Story
      • IPCC gets failing grade
      • Real Climate Exposed!
      • Truth about Real Climate
      • We’ve Been Conned
      • What is there a 97% consensus about?
    • Behind the IPCC
      • 1,000 Scientists Dissent
      • Climategate: Caught Green-Handed!
      • Climategate Inquiries
      • Climategate Inquiries 2
      • NIPCC Report Now Available
      • Understanding the Climategate Inquiries
  • Submissions
  • Contact Us
No Result
View All Result
Climate Change Dispatch
No Result
View All Result

The Independent’s Cocoa Con: Outlet Hypes Bogus AI Study, Ignores Real Culprits

Media blames climate for cocoa price spikes, but government policies are the true driver.

by Linnea Lueken and H. Sterling Burnett
April 28, 2025, 10:17 AM
in Agriculture, Extreme Weather, Media, News and Opinion
Reading Time: 6 mins read
A A
1

cocoa plant
A recent article at The Independent, “How the climate crisis will push up prices for your Easter chocolate,” claims that cocoa bean production is threatened by climate change, and this is why prices are increasing. This is false. [emphasis, links added]

The Independent cites a study using a novel, recently developed AI model forecasting cocoa production in various countries, rather than investigating the full picture, and real-world data, including neighboring nations’ cocoa production.

To the extent cocoa prices are rising, it is not due to climate change-induced shortages but rather government policies.

The Independent claims that extreme heat is increasing the risk to crops, and has been for “the past two decades in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Ecuador, and Indonesia, according to modelling shared exclusively with The Independent from ClimateAi, a California-based machine learning company that models harvest outcomes. And that impact is only set to get worse as global temperatures increase.”

This AI modelling “has only been around for the last few months, and has been specifically designed to create accurate outlooks for more data-scarce environments like Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire[.]”

The company claims it incorporates historic weather data, current satellite data, soil information, and topography, as well as “local agricultural knowledge[.]”

They use the model outputs to declare that yields and production of cocoa are declining because of climate change, or at the very least are “at risk” of declining.

It is too bad that the models were shared exclusively with The Independent, and the company’s work is proprietary, because it makes it impossible to know whether or not they are leaning on the same flawed climate models that consistently mislead on agricultural production – as Climate Realism has pointed out many times for crops around the world.

Tellingly, since the models are new and proprietary, their results lack transparency, and there is no suggestion that the models have been peer reviewed or verified by testing by outside researchers.

The company behind the proprietary AI modeling is basically asking the world to trust its findings, take it on blind faith – that’s not how science works.

Real-world data, as opposed to unverified model outputs, show that in general, cocoa yields and production have increased during the recent period of slight warming.

Interestingly, data show that while yields from cocoa plantations in Côte d’Ivoire are declining, production has increased considerably during the recent period of modest warming, according to UN Food and Agriculture Organization (UN FAO) data. (See figure below)


The Independent only acknowledges the declining yields but neglects to mention that total production from the country hit an all-time record high in 2023. Production has increased by 469 percent since 1980.

This indicates that the amount of cocoa from individual farms may be declining, likely [from] older farms, but more are coming online.

If climate change were the reason behind Côte d’Ivoire’s woes, it would be expected that production on farms in nearby countries would suffer similarly, since weather is widespread.

Yet Ghana’s yield levels have not experienced the declines Côte d’Ivoire has. (See figure below)


Another country evaluated as threatened by the AI study is Ecuador. UN FAO data show that they have had consistent production and yield records; since just 2015, Ecuador’s cocoa production and yields have broken previous records six times. (See figure below)


So what is it that is making Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire cocoa production suffer, leading to such high cocoa prices?

The answer can be found towards the end of The Independent’s article where it mentions [how] Ghana’s government has a stranglehold on cocoa pricing, noting that last year, “the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), which controls salaries for the country’s cocoa farmers, announced that it would raise the amount it pays cocoa farmers by 45 per cent[.]”

Blogger Jo Nova has a write-up on this that is devastating to the alarmist narrative. She points out that the price-fixing in Ghana, which is the second largest cocoa producer in the world, is a major driver for the issues that led to spikes in prices over the last year:

African governments have fixed the price of cocoa for decades, forcing poor farmers to work for a pittance and keeping the big profits for themselves. Not surprisingly, even though there is a wild price spike, farmers in Ghana are leaving the industry, smuggling crops out (because they get a better price). They didn’t plant new trees, they ran out of money for fertilizer, and didn’t try new varieties. Their children don’t want to farm cocoa, and the yields are falling on old, sickly plantations.

So, surprise, socialist government controls wrecked the industry, and they are now scrambling to put the pieces back together. Things are so desperate, the government of Ghana raised the price of cocoa by 58% last April and then raised the price of cocoa by another 45% last September, to try to reduce the smuggling. (The government was losing too much money). At one point last year, it was estimated that a third of the national crop was lost to smugglers. A few months after this, the farmers were hoarding their beans in expectation that the government would have to give them another price rise. Just chaos for everyone.

The Independent fails to discuss smuggling at all.

A similar result is found in Indonesia. After the Indonesian government embraced various U.N. climate and sustainable development goals, and began reaping the international aid that accompanied adoption, it began encouraging its farmers to adopt “sustainable” practices, including reducing the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, and focus on the “quality” of the cocoa produced over the quantity.

The result: after a sustained growth in production from the 1980s through the early 2000s, yields began to decline, with production falling shortly thereafter.

After initially falling, cocoa production has now basically flatlined in Indonesia since the country signed the Indonesia Compact in 2013 with a focus on improving cocoa quality, natural resource use, and lowering greenhouse gas emissions.

After 2018, the program ended and the money ran out. The damage was done, and cocoa production and yields have never recovered to pre-Compact levels. (see the figure below)


Crop production will always have good and bad years in different parts of the world, especially in places with government meddling, mishandling of resources, and price-fixing, which makes it harder for farmers to invest in new cocoa plants when others grow old, and the soils and trees are worn out, making them less able to withstand bad weather seasons.

Blaming climate change to rally support for green policies is misleading by the omission of other relevant factors, and is counterproductive to improving cocoa yields and production.


Top photo by Kyle Hinkson on Unsplash

Read more at Climate Realism

  • Truth
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • Gettr
  • Threads
  • gab-logo Gab
  • Mastodon
  • Buffer
  • Telegram
  • Email
  • Copy Link
  • Share Using More Networks…

Popular Posts

Electric Vehicles (EVs)

The ‘Green’ Scam Of The Century: How ‘Renewables’ Increase Fossil Fuel Demands

Oct 23, 2024
News and Opinion

Antarctica Is Colder, Icier Today Than At Any Time In 5,000 Years

Apr 15, 2024
Energy

30-Plus Signs That The Climate Scam Is Collapsing

Apr 09, 2025

Comments 1

  1. Spurwing Plover says:
    5 months ago

    The Indepenteent just another leftists rag just like the NYT’s and WP

    Reply

Comments are welcome! Those that add no discussion value may be removed.Cancel reply

Stay Connected On Social Media

gab-logo

Donate Today

Beating back the alarmist narrative takes time and money. Please donate today to help!

Recent Posts

  • earth fire burningNational Academies’ Climate Report: Another Tale Of Climate Change Bias
    Oct 7, 2025
    National Academies’ climate report downplays natural variability, exaggerates risks, and conflicts with DOE findings on extreme weather. […]
  • Biden pimping solarLabor Unions, Green Groups Sue EPA For Ending Biden-Era Solar Program
    Oct 7, 2025
    Labor unions and green energy groups are suing the EPA for canceling the Biden-era Solar for All program, which funnels billions from the GGRF. […]
  • power grid lines solarRon Barmby’s ‘Sunset On Net Zero’ Exposes The Flawed Economics Behind Climate Targets
    Oct 7, 2025
    Ron Barmby’s new book explains in understandable language the science and economics of why Net Zero CO2 is pointless, unachievable, and unfair. […]
  • Wind farm constructionIn The Name Of ‘Green’ Energy, Wind Farms Are Devastating Natural Habitats
    Oct 6, 2025
    Wind farms touted as green energy are triggering soil erosion, insect collapse, and biodiversity loss, raising doubts about their true environmental cost. […]
  • Pope Leo ice blessingPope Leo Joins Climate Cultists In Bizarre Ice-Blessing Ritual, Betrays Church’s Mission
    Oct 6, 2025
    Pope Leo joined climate cultists in a strange ice-blessing ceremony, sparking backlash from Christians and raising questions about Catholic priorities. […]
  • Abigail SpanbergerReport: Spanberger Winning Virginia Governor’s Race Would Add $500M a Year to Electricity Bills
    Oct 6, 2025
    Abigail Spanberger’s plan to rejoin the RGGI could add $500M a year to Virginia electricity bills, while Earle-Sears opposes any carbon tax. […]
  • Wall Street financial districtUN-Backed Net-Zero Banking Alliance Shutters, Dealing Blow To ESG Activists
    Oct 6, 2025
    The Net-Zero Banking Alliance has shut down as banks exit, sparking ESG activist backlash over fossil fuel projects and climate goals. […]
  • Massive Amazon deforestation for COP30 roadCOP30’s Carbon Circus: Elites Show Everything That’s Wrong With Climate Alarmism
    Oct 6, 2025
    Skyrocketing costs, private jets, and rainforest destruction expose the hypocrisy surrounding this year’s COP30 climate summit in Brazil. […]
  • oil rig drillAmerica’s Energy Boom Exposes The Folly Of Britain’s Net Zero Disaster
    Oct 3, 2025
    America’s energy boom and policy flexibility are widening the economic gap with Britain, where high prices and net zero goals are stalling growth. […]
  • Arctic sunsetNew Study Shows Arctic Sea Ice Decline Slowing, Driven More by Natural Variability Than Emissions
    Oct 3, 2025
    New study shows Arctic sea ice decline has slowed since 2012, driven more by natural variability than greenhouse gas emissions. […]

Get Instant Email Notifications

Subscribe to receive a digest of daily stories, or get emailed once they're published. Check your Junk/Spam folder for a verification email.

Submit a tip

Please enter your email, so we know you're human.

Books You May Like

exposing great lie

Have a suggestion? Let us know! We swap out books based on your input. We participate in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program. See here.

  • About
  • Privacy Policy
  • Contact Us

© Portions copyright Climate Change Dispatch

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Videos
  • Who We Are
  • Facts Vs. Fearmongering
    • Real science vs Junk Science
      • 1100-plus Peer-Reviewed Studies
      • 97% – Myth of the Climate Change Consensus
      • Michael Crichton: Aliens Cause Global Warming
      • Climate change and its causes
      • Climate Science Primer
      • CO2 is not pollution
      • Deceptive Surface Temperature Records
      • Editorial: Great Global Warming Hoax
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 1
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 2
      • Rules for Climate Radicals: Part 3
      • Why CO2 Is A Minor Player In Global Climate
      • Why Politicized Science Is So Dangerous
    • Facts Not Fear
      • A Simple Question For Climate Alarmists
      • Climate Change – The Facts
      • Climate Change Fears Are Empirically Baseless
      • Global Warming 101
      • Global Warming Q&A
      • Understanding The Medieval Warm Period
      • Ocean Cycles and Climate
      • Overview of Plate Climatology Theory
      • Precautionary Principle
      • Should We Celebrate Carbon Dioxide?
      • The Skeptics Handbook
      • Weather Versus Climate
      • Why I’m a GW skeptic
      • Winning the climate debate with facts
      • Why Aliens Cause Global Warming
    • Greenhouse FAQs
      • CO2, Plants, & Industry
      • How much have temps changed?
      • How much have temps changed?
      • How much have temps changed?
      • Is global warming real?
      • Measuring temperature
      • Swimming in CO2?
      • Scientists urge caution?
      • Today’s warming trend
      • Variations in temperature
    • Gore’s Greatest Goofs
      • Deconstructing the Truth
      • Fact-Checking Al Gore’s Latest Predictions
      • How Gore Created The Global Warming Hoax
    • Inside Real Climate
      • Closer look at the 97% Consensus
      • GW’s Amazing Story
      • IPCC gets failing grade
      • Real Climate Exposed!
      • Truth about Real Climate
      • We’ve Been Conned
      • What is there a 97% consensus about?
    • Behind the IPCC
      • 1,000 Scientists Dissent
      • Climategate: Caught Green-Handed!
      • Climategate Inquiries
      • Climategate Inquiries 2
      • NIPCC Report Now Available
      • Understanding the Climategate Inquiries
  • Submissions
  • Contact Us

© 2025 Climate Change Dispatch

Share via
  • Facebook
  • Like
  • Twitter
  • Pinterest
  • LinkedIn
  • Digg
  • Tumblr
  • VKontakte
  • Print
  • Email
  • Reddit
  • Buffer
  • Love This
  • Weibo
  • Pocket
  • Xing
  • Odnoklassniki
  • WhatsApp
  • Meneame
  • Blogger
  • Amazon
  • Yahoo Mail
  • Gmail
  • AOL
  • Newsvine
  • HackerNews
  • Evernote
  • MySpace
  • Mail.ru
  • Viadeo
  • Line
  • Flipboard
  • Comments
  • SMS
  • Viber
  • Telegram
  • Subscribe
  • Facebook Messenger
  • Kakao
  • LiveJournal
  • Yammer
  • Edgar
  • Fintel
  • Mix
  • Instapaper
  • Copy Link
  • Truth
  • gab-logo Gab
  • Gettr
  • Baidu
  • Mastodon
  • Threads
  • Bluesky
Share via
  • Digg
  • Tumblr
  • VKontakte
  • Print
  • Email
  • Reddit
  • Buffer
  • Love This
  • Weibo
  • Pocket
  • Xing
  • Odnoklassniki
  • WhatsApp
  • Meneame
  • Blogger
  • Amazon
  • Yahoo Mail
  • Gmail
  • AOL
  • Newsvine
  • HackerNews
  • Evernote
  • MySpace
  • Mail.ru
  • Viadeo
  • Line
  • Flipboard
  • Comments
  • SMS
  • Viber
  • Telegram
  • Subscribe
  • Facebook Messenger
  • Kakao
  • LiveJournal
  • Yammer
  • Edgar
  • Fintel
  • Mix
  • Instapaper
  • Copy Link
  • Truth
  • gab-logo Gab
  • Gettr
  • Baidu
  • Mastodon
  • Threads
  • Bluesky