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The Decarbonization Fantasy Versus Reality In Woke-Land

by Thomas Richard
May 07, 2021, 2:07 PM
in News and Opinion
Reading Time: 6 mins read
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cartoon fossil fuelsJP Morgan Chase — it’s hard to find a more “woke” company than that one. Under celebrity CEO Jamie Dimon, JPM in its corporate pronouncements consistently positions itself at the most exquisitely correct end of the politically correct spectrum.

But reality can be tough. In its email from a couple of days ago, the Global Warming Policy Foundation links to JPM’s 2021 Annual Energy Paper.

The Paper comes from JPM’s Asset and Wealth Management Group. The lead author is a guy named Michael Cembalest, who appears to have his ear right down on the ground of the global energy business.

The bottom line is that all the talk about the “deep decarbonization” of the world economy any time soon is a ridiculous fantasy.

Fossil fuels are not going away for a long time, if ever. Carbon emissions into the atmosphere are increasing? You’d better get used to that.

Once again, this “deep decarbonization” thing is a case of the really “smart” people deceiving you, or maybe themselves; or more likely, both.

For starters, let’s consider some of the extreme wokeism that issues from the executive suites in JPMville.

This is not limited to matters of “climate,” but extends as well to other usual topics, like for example “systemic racism.” On that subject, here is JPM CEO Jamie Dimon, as quoted in Forbes in October 2020:

“Systemic racism is a tragic part of America’s history. We can do more and do better to break down systems that have propagated racism and widespread economic inequality, especially for Black and Latinx people. It’s long past time that society addresses racial inequities in a more tangible, meaningful way.”

Meanwhile, over in the climate arena, JPM’s high-level pronouncements totally buy into the idea that we’re going to save the planet by financing a bunch of wind turbines, or something.

Last October, JPM put out a big statement with the pompous title of “How one of the world’s biggest banks plans to tackle climate change.” Excerpt:

Climate change is among the most urgent problems facing humanity; businesses and governments have an imperative to act. Achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement, which aims to restrict a rise in the world’s average temperature, would enable us to take a giant step towards a safer, greener, more sustainable future. … For the world to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, there needs to be an acceleration of emerging technologies that are not yet widely commercially available or economically viable. … Our company, JPMorgan Chase, announced this month that we will start aligning our financing portfolio to meet the Paris goals.

Then just a couple of weeks ago, on April 15, JPM followed up by announcing a big new plan to “Advance Climate Action and Sustainable Development” with some $2.5 trillion in investments:

JPMorgan Chase aims to finance and facilitate more than $2.5 trillion over 10 years – beginning this year through the end of 2030 – to advance long-term solutions that address climate change and contribute to sustainable development. … This long-term target complements the firm’s Paris-aligned financing strategy and will help accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy by encouraging actions that set a path for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050…

Wow, that sounds great! Or is it all just a cynical grab for some of the upcoming gushers of government subsidies, with no detectable effect at all on the climate, or even much effect on the use of fossil fuels?

For some insights, let’s look at that 2021 Annual Energy Paper. The document is not short (42 pages), and certainly does not fall in the category of “climate skepticism,” but it does contain some notable doses of hard-headed realism that are normally completely lacking in this field.

From the Executive Summary:

Our main focus this year: why is the transition [away from carbon-based fuels] taking so long? Deep decarbonization plans assume massive changes in electric vehicles, electricity transmission grids, industrial energy use, and carbon sequestration, but each faces headwinds often not accounted for by energy futurists. As shown below, many prior forecasts of the renewable transition were too ambitious since they ignored energy density, intermittency and the complex realities of incumbent energy systems. …

Maybe those “energy futurist” people are just kidding themselves?

President Biden just announced a new GHG emissions target: a 50% decline by 2030 vs a 2005 baseline. This very ambitious target implies a decarbonization pace in the next 10 years that’s four times faster than in the last 15 years. Even with the amount of money the administration plans to dedicate to the task, it’s an enormous hurdle. …

The even more important and larger question: even if the US succeeds, what about everyone else? Over the last 25 years, the developed world shifted much of its carbon-intensive manufacturing of steel, cement, ammonia, and plastics to the developing world. …

Loudly proclaiming that you have achieved some (small) decreases in carbon emissions while offshoring most of your energy-intensive manufacturing — That’s one good way to fool yourself.

The world gets more energy efficient every year, but levels of emissions keep rising. …

It’s those pesky Chinese and Indians and Africans who think they ought to be able to have electricity and cars and air conditioning just like you do.

How is the global energy transition going? Taken together, the aggregate impact of nuclear, hydroelectric, and solar/wind generation reduced global reliance on fossil fuels from ~95% of primary energy in 1975 to ~85% in 2020. In other words, energy transitions take a long time and lots of money. …

[T]he IEA still projects that 70%-75% of global primary energy consumption may be met via fossil fuels in the year 2040. Why don’t rapid wind and solar price declines translate into faster decarbonization?

As we will discuss, renewable energy is still mostly used to generate electricity, and electricity as a share of final energy consumption on a global basis is still just 18%.

Yes, all those thousands of wind turbines and solar panels blanketing the landscape are at best hoping to replace a minority of a sector that itself only represents 18% of energy use to begin with. Why are we spending (wasting) these many trillions of dollars again?

Getting beyond the Executive Summary and into the details of the Paper, there are many great tidbits. A section on “Transmission Realities” shows how bringing “renewable” power to where it’s needed runs into the same roadblocks from environmentalists as all other energy development:

While MIT and Princeton assume rapid growth in transmission infrastructure, actual development can be a hornet’s nest of siting challenges and legal costs even when projects are eventually built after years of planning. Let’s start with HydroQuebec’s plan to sell hydropower to the US. …

Take Northern Pass, a 1.1 GW transmission project to bring hydropower from Quebec to the Northeast through New Hampshire (80% via existing right-of-ways or underground lines). … [A] New Hampshire siting committee blocked Northern Pass. … Now Massachusetts is trying to import Canadian hydropower through Maine (“New England Clean Energy Connect”) but has already run into an injunction due to opposition from environmental groups. …

And so on and on and on.

Then there’s the Holy Grail of carbon sequestration and storage, sometimes known as CSS. Hey, why not just take all of this dangerous CO2 and bury it somewhere in the ground?

The Paper looks at some of the practical realities:

After 20 years of planning and conjecture, by the end of 2020 carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities stored just 0.1% of global CO2 emissions. … The highest ratio in the history of science: the number of academic papers written on CCS divided by real-life implementation of it. …

The Princeton CCS buildout, just to sequester an amount equal to 15% of current US GHG emissions, would require infrastructure whose throughput volume would be higher than the volume of oil flowing through US distribution and refining pipelines, a system which has taken over 100 years to build. …

Sequestering 25% of global CO2 through direct air capture would require 25%-40% of the world’s electricity generation plus 11%-17% of its primary energy.

And then there’s my favorite line in the whole Paper, from page 28:

We recommend that investors stick with oil & gas for now.

That’s my plan. And by the way, JPM’s plan to end “systemic racism” isn’t going any better.

Read more at Manhattan Contrarian

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Comments 9

  1. Russell Johnson says:
    4 years ago

    There’s no one easier to scam than CEOs and politicians; both are infected with self importance that forces them to virtue signal over and over. Decarbonization and carbon sequestration are delusional goals with absolutely zero reward. If we allow our economy to be destroyed by politicians based on climate models that are grossly inaccurate we deserve the result!

  2. john says:
    4 years ago

    The price of ExxonMobil stock has fallen from close to $100 to about $50 in the last 5 years
    USA coal companies went bankrupt
    The percent of electricity generated by renewables now about 20% is greater than dirty coal and increases 1% per year

    • David Lewis says:
      4 years ago

      If coal power plants use scrubbers to remove the soot and sulfur, they are not dirty. Carbon dioxide is not a dirty emission and higher levels have significant benefits in the form of higher crop yields and the greening of earth.

      The issue isn’t if renewables generate more power than coal, the issue is if they can power an industrial society. This is unlikely, yet the effort to do so will destroy jobs, cause a decline in our standard of living, limit freedom of choice, and force an economic contraction. Also remember that there is no feasible technology that can store enough power to run our power grids. Southern Australia’s $50 million battery could only run their grid for a few minutes. Converting to renewables means no power when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow.

  3. Dave O says:
    4 years ago

    And when will the fact e addressed that decarbonization itself is racist? Denying cheap energy, or forced energy poverty on the yellow and brown and black by the elitist whites. Won’t play well.

  4. Spurwing Plover says:
    4 years ago

    The whole idea of ending all uses of Fossil Fuels is rediculous and idiotic and based upon Junk Science the very same Junk Science used to ban DDT Junk Science and Politics

  5. David Lewis says:
    4 years ago

    Systemic racism is indeed a tragic part of America’s history. However, with 50 years of affirmative action, it is the whites who are the victims of this discrimination. Liberals are incapable of accepting the real reasons that segments of certain demographic groups are where they are, so they have created the systemic racism narrative. This is just as phony as the climate change narrative.

  6. Gumnut says:
    4 years ago

    Let us consider what deep decarbonisation actually means…

    A gardener in Australia will charge a whole heap of batteries overnight. That’s if the wind blows, because the sun sure isn’t shining and that’s if the factories can make batteries without reliable power…

    Oh, I forgot. They’re made in China and therefore exempt from decarbonisation and a whole heap of other considerations. So we have batteries.

    If we can pay for them.

    So, the gardener powers up equipment and cuts a lawn for someone…

    Actually, no. By using the available power charging all the batteries, the vehicle needed to get to the jobs is flat. So the gardener has a horse and cart, powered by the grass clippings.

    But soon the gardener is out of a job as someone else has worked out that it’s cheaper to just let the horse eat the lawn.

    Now, that’s decarbonisation at work.

  7. Spurwing Plover says:
    4 years ago

    Their selling us their Snake Oil called Global Warming/Climate Change Al Gore is the #1 Conman with Hollywood Airhead Leonardo DiCaprio right behind him

  8. Sonnyhill says:
    4 years ago

    During WWII, people like Jamie Dimon made huge piles of money selling explosives to buyers from both sides. Just a commodity, business as usual. So Wall Street is just the house, raking it in. The merchants of Climate Change have so much money to insulate themselves from the Big Financial Chill coming down on us roadkill.

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