Results from spring Norwegian fieldwork in the Svalbard region of the Barents Sea are in and they show that despite having to deal with the most extreme loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic, polar bears in this region continue to thrive.
Svalbard polar bear territory (managed by Norway) includes sea ice to the Russian border to the east as well as the area around the Svalbard archipelago: the map below is from Aars et al. 2017.
Observations were collected around Svalbard by a team lead by Jon Aars and Magnus Andersen of the Norwegian Polar Institute between March and May this year and posted online 4 June 2019. Kudos to them for making their on-going observations and analysis available, in a timely manner for all to see.
Note that Svalbard is the western half of the ‘Barents Sea’ polar bear subpopulation: in recent years, most of the region’s polar bears have been living around Franz Josef Land in the eastern (Russian) sector where Norwegian researchers are not permitted to work.
SPRING SEA ICE IN THE BARENTS SEA
Sea ice extent at end May 2019 (end of the 2019 Svalbard study field season):
Summer sea ice decline in the Barents Sea since 1979 has been the most profound across the Arctic (with a loss of 4.11 days of ice per year, from 1979-2014), shown below (far left) compared to the Chukchi Sea (middle) and Southern Hudson Bay, which had the least (a loss of 0.68 days of ice per year), all graphs from Regehr et al. (2016):
BODY CONDITION OF MALE SVALBARD POLAR BEARS (1993-2019)
NUMBER OF SVALBARD CUBS PER LITTER (1993-2019)
NUMBER OF SVALBARD CUBS OF THE YEAR PER FEMALE (1993-2019)
SVALBARD FEMALES WITH CUBS OF DIFFERENT AGES (1993-2019)
The results above (originals here) confirm the conclusion from previous few years that polar bears in the Svalbard region are doing well despite such a profound decline of summer and fall sea ice that it has prevented females from reaching traditional denning areas in the east for the last four consecutive years (Aars 2018; Aars et al. 2017).
However, there has been ample ice in the eastern Barents sea for hunting in the fall and abundant denning habitat exists around the Franz Josef Land archipelago for polar bear females (Aars 2015; Andersen et al. 2012): most bears previously living and denning around Svalbard appear to have shifted their allegiance to the sea ice east of Svalbard and the Russian portion of the subpopulation region.
These results also confirm that early spring sea ice – not summer ice– are what is required for polar bear health and survival (Crockford 2017, 2019a,b).
In contrast to summer sea ice last year, late spring sea ice in the Svalbard area this year at 28 June remains above average and the Barents Sea in general still has abundant ice, as the graph and map below show (from the Norwegian Ice Service).
This has been true since late March. Whether this is enough to entice some bears (including pregnant females) to come ashore on islands in the north and north-east of the archipelago (to spend the summer on Norwegian soil and have their cubs there next winter) remains to be seen.
Read more at Polar Bear Science
