Popular claims that carbon dioxide (CO2) changes drive temperature changes currently or throughout the distant past are “based on imagination and climate models full of assumptions.” [emphasis, links added]
A comprehensive new study details a stochastic assessment determination of the sequencing of CO2 variations versus temperature variations since the 1950s, over the last 2,000 years (the Common Era), and throughout the last 541 million years.
The robust conclusion is that the causality direction – with the understanding that causes lead and effects lag – clearly shows the temperature changes lead and CO2 changes lag on yearly, decadal, and centennial/millennial scales.
In other words, “the reverse causality direction [CO2]→T should be excluded.”
The claim that CO2 increases drive temperature changes is thus a “narrative” only, as the claim that “humans, through their emissions by fossil fuel burning, are responsible for the changes we see in climate” can be regarded as a “non-scientific issue.”
The author has had a series of peer-reviewed scientific papers published supporting this same T→CO2 conclusion (Koutsoyiannis et al., 2022, Koutsoyiannis et al., 2020, Koutsoyiannis et al., 2023, Koutsoyiannis, 2024, Koutsoyiannis, 2024) in just the last few years.
Since these papers challenge the prevailing anthropogenic global warming (AGW) narrative so acutely, Dr. Koutsoyiannis has understandably been the recipient of antagonism bordering on vitriol from AGW proponents.
This includes comments from peer reviewers. So, in an apparent effort to foster transparency, he has made the peer reviewers’ comments on this latest paper public. Here is the link to these commentaries:
Peer reviewers’ exchanges with Koutsoyiannis in “Stochastic assessment of temperature–CO2 causal relationship in climate from the Phanerozoic through modern times.”
Top image by Gürkan Özsoy via Pixabay
Read more at No Tricks Zone
Even Al Gore’s data in “The Inconvenient Truth” shows that temperature changes leads changes in carbon dioxide. He just wasn’t smart enough to realize it. The mechanism is easy to understand. The oceans contain 20 times the CO2 as the atmosphere. As water warms, it can hold less CO2.
None of this matters. The climate change movement is a political movement with lots of hitchhiking agendas and will continue to ignore solid science. What is beginning to limit the movement is its extreme cost.
Let’s not ignore that the half-life of CO2 (and also methane) is about 5 years and thus turns over quite quickly. Even the Mauna Loa data shows seasonal ups and down which reflects this short half-life. NASA claims a 500 to 1000 year half-life, trying to pretend that almost all CO2 released in the last 150 years is still in the atmosphere—pure propaganda.
From what I read, phrases like “lack of adequate scholarship” etc. seem to be just a reflection of the consensus-based defense of the CO2-hypothesis mantra. But where is the testable science that falsifies Dr. Koutsoyiannis’ work?
I can only read “we are right, you are wrong”.