From 2008 to 2016, a widespread cooling ranging from 0.6°C to more than 2.0°C has effectively chilled the entire oceanic region from E. Canada to N. Iceland to S. Europe.
The cooling persists year-round and extends from the surface down to depths of 800 m.
Image Source: Bryden et al., 2020
A year ago scientists revealed a large swath of the North Atlantic surface had cooled at a rate of -0.78°C per decade between 2004 and 2017 (Fröb et al., 2019).
Image Source: Fröb et al., 2019
The cooling has recently sprawled into the Arctic regions, as the upper ocean waters in Disko Bay (West Greenland) have just been hit with a ~2°C cooling since 2014 (Khazendar et al., 2019).
Image Source: Khazendar et al., 2019
A new study (Bryden et al., 2020) suggests the magnitude, rapidity, and extent of this cooling may have been underestimated.
A cooling of “more than 2°C” in just 8 years (2008-2016) has been reported for nearly the entire ocean region south of Iceland.
The cooling persists year-round and extends from the “surface down to 800 m depth”.
From 40°N to 70°N, and from 40°W to 0°W, average temperatures have plunged 0.6°C from 2008 to 2016 – also to depths of 800 m.
To put these thermal changes into perspective, consider it took the global oceans 55 years (1955-2010) to warm 0.18°C (0.27 W/m²) in the 700 m layer (Levitus et al., 2012).
It is unknown to what extent the cooling will permeate other regions of the ocean. Nor is it known how long the cooling will persist. Or get worse.
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Here is the global climate change forecast for the next 100,000 years.
Recent cooling will continue, with a short warming at around 2050, 2,100 and 2,250 until an expected 1,000 year minimum at 2,500 AD or so, when it will again warm to reach current levels around 3,000AD, on the long term dominant 1,000 year solar cycle.
There is nothing you can do to change this, so be prepared for slightly colder weather before you die.
The current pattern of short 1,000 year cycles of this interglacial warm spell will repeat, superimposed on a slower but steady long term cooling trend for several thousand years, stabilising at an average of 8 degs colder globally, bringing glacial conditions for most of the next 80,000 years, when a sudden thaw is expected.
This will raise global temperatures over the following 7,000 years, reaching around 8 degrees warmer globally, to return the global climate to another stable interglacial warm spell of a few thousand year duration . This planetary 100,000 year cycle is expected to persist, repeating roughly once every 100,000 years. Be prepared..
Flood Warning: During the 7,000 year warming some flooding of continental shelves and all low lying areas is expected, with typical food levels of around 130metres. Relocation is recommended. The next civilisation may be able to restart cultivation of grasses around then.
No sudden changes are expected in human lifetimes. That was the climate news.