A new study published in Environmental Research Letters shows that some low-lying reef islands in the Solomon Islands are being gobbled up by “extreme events, seawalls, and inappropriate development, rather than sea-level rise alone.”
Despite headlines claiming that man-made climate change has caused five Islands (out of nearly a thousand) to disappear from rising sea levels, a closer inspection of the study reveals the true cause is natural, and the report’s lead author says many of the headlines have been ‘exaggerated’ to ill-effect.
Dr. Simon Albert, the report’s co-author told the Guardian today that numerous media outlets, like the Washington Post and NY Times and Think Progress, have misinterpreted their work by trying to link sea-level rise with climate change.
According to Albert, the researchers did not study climate change and how it influences shoreline erosion and submersion of certain low-lying islands.
That didn’t stop numerous mainstream media outlets from jumping to the erroneous conclusion that these five sunken islands were further proof of climate change.
This completely misconstrues the actual science and what the study really says, Albert said. “The links between climate change and the sinking of five islands in the Pacific Ocean have been exaggerated,” he says.
“All these headlines are certainly pushing things a bit towards the ‘climate change has made islands vanish’ angle. I would prefer slightly more moderate titles that focus on the sea-level rise being the driver rather than simply ‘climate change’,” Albert told the Guardian, which also ran catastrophic headlines about the report when it first came out on Friday.
Indeed, the authors even write in the study’s abstract there is “limited research” and that the majority of shoreline changes and submersion events occurred over extended periods of time.
The islands affected were primarily caused by natural weather events (storms, typhoons), building villages a foot or two above sea level, and poorly constructed sea walls.
Globally, sea-level rise has remained consistent at roughly 2-3 millimeters per year since leaving the last glaciation and has actually slowed down in the last twenty years.
Sea-level rise is also different depending on where you are on the planet. That has to do with thermal expansion (as the ocean warms up, it expands), seafloor ‘buildings’ that stretch hundreds of miles and actually push up the overlying water near the surface, and high-energy wave action from trade winds and storms in the Pacific.
In the Solomon Islands, sea-level rise has been rising at roughly 7 mm per year. Some, Albert says, might be from climate change and the rest by natural climatic cycles.
They only studied the latter, so he was surprised to read all the headlines linking climate change, which wasn’t studied.
One such natural climate cycle is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which “involves changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Pacific Ocean.”
Well-established research has shown that “decadal-scale variations in climate result from interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere.”
PDO variations alternate between two phases: a cool phase and a warm phase. Depending on which phase the northern Pacific is in will strongly affect “precipitation patterns along the Pacific Coast of North America.”
The higher-than-normal sea-level rise in the Solomon Islands chain is driven, Albert says, in large part by intense trade winds pushing water up into the western Pacific. He notes these trade winds are a “natural cycle but also the recent intensification is related to atmospheric warming.”
The so-called extra sea-level rise may be driven by climate change, but it is poorly understood and was not included in the study.
In fact, other areas of the Pacific Ocean are rising at the global average. Other studies show no land loss using comparative photos of islands from World War II. There is even research showing that atolls in the central Pacific are actually getting bigger.
In this new study, Albert et al used aerial and satellite imagery dating back to 1947 and focused on only 33 islands.
To put that in perspective, there are 922 islands that make up the Solomon Island chain, and only 347 inhabited. The country is so large, it spans the southwestern Pacific and runs in parallel chains from northwest to southeast.
The researchers also relied on first-hand accounts from local villagers and found only five vegetated reef islands that have been submerged by increased sea-level rise and shoreline erosion. They also found shoreline erosion at six islands, and at least two that required the relocation of communities.
Albert says his study of a limited area may be a forewarning of things to come, and the dire headlines and quotes used by many mainstream media outlets came from an opinion piece the authors wrote at ‘The Conversation.’
In most cases, journalists didn’t even bother to contact the researchers to see what, exactly, the study was saying.
Recently, the NYTimes ran a 10,000-word essay on this very issue over the weekend. It showed a growing pattern of inexperienced reporters who needed to be spoon-fed complex information.
The high-ranking official being profiled was President Obama’s Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes, and he said he was like a “ventriloquist for reporters,” essentially creating an “echo chamber.”
Rhodes also told the NY Times that reporters have to “call us to explain to them what’s happening.”
Extrapolate that to global warming, a very complicated topic, and an Obama-legacy issue, and you see a troubling pattern emerging.
Reporters aren’t actually reading studies but rather are simply regurgitating what those in positions of “authority” tell them.
Now Melchior Mataki, chair of the Solomon Islands’ National Disaster Council, is requesting millions of dollars from the climate slush fund set up by the United Nations:
“This ultimately calls for support from development partners and international financial mechanisms such as the Green Climate Fund,” Mataki said. “This support should include nationally driven scientific studies to inform adaptation planning to address the impacts of climate change in the Solomon Islands.”
President Obama has already diverted millions of taxpayer dollars into the fund without approval from Congress because of the way the last spending bill was worded.
Now that Albert has set the record straight, but he still understands (and justifies) the use of misleading headlines. It also won’t be the last time the media uses a misleading headline to drive home a legacy issue.
Albert also says he understands “why these more dramatic titles are used and it does help bring attention to the issue” that he firmly believes will become a “major issue for the islands in the second half of this century from climate change.”
In other words, the ends justify the means for a possible and unlikely scenario occurring sometime after 2050.
Read more at Examiner
